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Corn, wheat close lower while soybeans move higher | Friday, May 20, 2022

July corn was down 4 ½ cents with December corn down 4 cents. July soybean futures were 14 ¾ cents higher with November beans up 7 ¼ cents. July Chicago wheat closed down 31 ¾ cents. July Kansas City wheat closed down 42 ½ cents and July Minneapolis wheat closed down 51 ½ cents.

Livestock prices closed the day mixed. Live cattle futures finished the day up 7 cents on the June contract. May feeder cattle closed down 72 cents, and June lean hog futures closed the day $3.57 higher.

Crude oil is up $1.02 and the Dow futures were 7 points higher.

A good week to be over

Lately, it seems once we get the market rolling in one direction, it is hard to turn it around and that was the case with wheat this week. That in turn spilled over into the corn complex.

We should see a big week of planting progress this week, and I would think we could be close to 72% to 73% planted on corn and near 50% planted on soybeans.

The Cattle on Feed report was released this afternoon, and it looks bearish. On feed come in at 102% vs. estimates of 101.3%. Placed in April come in at 99.1% vs. estimates of 95.4%, and marketed in April come in at 97.8% vs. estimates of 98.0%. All in all, these three numbers are negative in the near term. Long term, though, we are putting more cattle in the lots now, which could give us smaller numbers later this fall.

The Commitment of Trader report showed Funds added about 1149 contract of corn to the already long positions and currently hold about 339,711 contracts long. In soybeans, we saw Funds add about 16,674 contracts to their long positions and hold about 147,335 contracts of long positions.

Keep a close eye on the weather this weekend and into next week. A lot of acres got planted, and we are hearing of very good soil conditions allowing the crop to emerge without any issues. From what looked to be a delayed spring planting to catching up significantly after this week, one would think there is good possibility for trend line or above yields.

Midday Comments: 10:30 a.m.

At midday, July corn futures are down 4 to 5 cents with December corn futures down 3 to 4 cents. July soybean futures are 18 to 19 cents higher with November futures up 10 to 11 cents. July Chicago wheat is 23 cents lower. July Kansas City wheat is 37 cents lower, and July Minneapolis is 49 cents lower.    

Livestock prices are mixed with live cattle up 45 cents. Feeder cattle are 30 cents lower, and lean hogs up $1.67 per hundred. The cattle market is a touch higher today as traders prepare for the Cattle on Feed report.

Crude oil is up 44 cents this morning, and the Dow futures are 210 points lower.  

Wheat Quality Council wrapped up its crop tour this week. Its estimate of the Kansas wheat crop came in at 39.7 bushels per acre vs USDA 39.0 bushels per acre estimate in the May 12 Crop Production Report. The tour does have a tendency to understate the size of the Kansas wheat crop, but it is well off of last year’s crop size.                 

Corn futures continue to leak lower as well. Good planting progress was made this week and with wheat selling off hard this week, corn is struggling to hold up. Crop is getting planted but with the current supply and demand situation we need to have a great growing season to ensure we have a great crop.  

The U.S. stock market is also higher today helping support the cattle market. Lately, the cattle market has been very sensitive to the stock market as consumers fear a recession is coming very soon. 

Opening Comments: 8:45 a.m.

July corn futures are 7¢ to 8¢ lower. July soybean futures are 5¢ to 6¢ higher. July Chicago wheat is 8¢ lower. July Kansas City wheat futures are 11¢ lower, and July Minneapolis wheat futures are 15¢ lower.

Livestock prices are mixed this morning. Live cattle are 55¢ higher, feeder cattle are 2¢ lower, and lean hog futures are 65¢ lower.

Crude oil is up 65¢ this morning and the stock market is up 192 points to start off today’s trade.

The selloff in wheat continues. That in turn is spilling over into the corn market. Still no official word yet whether the UN has figured out a way to get the wheat out of Ukraine, but the market sure is expecting it to happen.

We had a great week of planting progress across much of the United States. We could see corn planting around 75% on Monday and soybean planting around 450%. After a slow start to spring planting, we seem to be catching up pretty fast. Also of note, I am hearing comments from the country that planting conditions are very good and corn is popping up out of the ground in seven days.

Not much new in the meat complex. Lean hogs this week have scored a significant low. Futures are higher and cash is higher for the week. Cattle look to be pretty quiet and choppy as traders get ready for the Cattle on Feed report.

Cattle on feed report will be out at 2 p.m. (CT) today. Here are the estimates: on feed – 101%, placed – 96% and marketings – 98%.

Keep an eye on the weather over the weekend. We have made significant planting progress, and if the weather would slip into a more seasonal weather pattern, this would put the United States in good shape to achieve trend line or higher yields. 

About the Author: Cory Bratland is the youngest of five children who grew up on his family’s farm near Willow Lake, South Dakota. Bratland attended school at Willow Lake High School and graduated with an A.A.S. degree in ag business management at Lake Area Technical Institute in Watertown, South Dakota. He began his career as a cash grain marketer and grain trader with Cargill, Inc. While working for Cargill, Inc. Bratland held various merchandising jobs across South Dakota and Minnesota. In 2003, he was licensed as a Series 3 and 30 commodity broker. In 2008, Bratland left Cargill to be an independent commodity broker, starting Prairie Ag Marketing Services. In 2009, he partnered with Al Kluis as an affiliate office. In 2010, he became Kluis Commodity Advisors' Chief Grain Strategist. In addition to working with Al daily on marketing strategies, Bratland also serves private clients through Kluis Publishing and Prairie Ag Marketing. He lives near Willow Lake, South Dakota with his wife Erica and children, Hunter, Elliot and Isabella. He still actively participates in the family farm that raises corn, soybeans, alfalfa and also runs a cow/calf operation.

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Editor’s Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

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