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Global wheat weather is moving the market lower, analyst says

The technicals look weak for wheat.

On Tuesday, the market move lower with a big range of 16¢ for September wheat is a bearish technical development.

Traders will continue to monitor crops in Europe and Russia, which have seen better weather recently. There are still some dryness concerns for parts of Russia. Kansas City Wheat is still holding a large discount to Chicago Wheat of nearly 62¢.

September wheat futures closed sharply lower on the session Tuesday, and the selling pushed the market down to its lowest level since September 12. September KC Wheat was also under pressure, as the harvest advances in the central Plains, and the market pushed down to its lowest level since March 17.

Spring wheat futures closed just slightly lower on the day. The weather forecast looks somewhat threatening for the Dakotas with below-normal precipitation in the forecast for the six- to 10-day and eight- to 14-day models. North Dakota spring wheat crop ratings have fallen from 84% good/excellent to 78% in just two weeks.

Market ideas

The resistance level for September Chicago wheat futures close is now at $5.10 per bushel with $4.83 as the next downside swing target. The technical action for September KC wheat is also bearish, and the move under the May 20 low leaves $4.31 as the next downside target. September Minneapolis Wheat support is $5.23 per bushel, with $5.30 as resistance. A move through resistance would leave $5.47 per bushel as the next upside target.

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