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Soybean prices soar at close | Tuesday, August 9, 2022

SOYBEAN PRICES SOAR AT CLOSE: 2:00 P.M.

The expiring August soybean and soybean meal prices soared higher today. Corn closed higher, but well off its early high. Wheat traded on both sides and closed higher.

Many traders are going to the sidelines ahead of the inflation report tomorrow and the USDA reports on Friday.

September corn closed up 7¢ and December corn closed 6 ¾¢ higher. August soybeans closed up 74¢ and November soybeans were up 29¢. Wheat futures are 1-12¢ higher. The expiring August Soybean Meal contract closed $15 a ton higher.

It’s a year of good and bad with a good-great crop in the eastern Corn Belt, while the western Corn Belt of western Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas seeing yields move lower day-by-day.

Whatever the USDA indicates on Friday, I look for lower crop projections in future reports.

I always look the USDA Crop Progress reports and the weekly crop conditions and then try to look ahead to next Monday. I look for steady to lower ratings again in the report on August 15. The overall sideways pattern continues for corn and soybeans with good commercial buying on breaks and farmer selling on rallies.

In the livestock markets on Tuesday, October hogs are down $1.10, October cattle are trading 90¢ lower and November Feeder Cattle are down $1.50.

CORN AND SOYBEAN MARKETS KICK INTO HIGH GEAR: 11:00 A.M.

The corn and soybean markets opened higher and then kicked into high gear. Many private analysts are again taking yield and total production estimates lower. The extended forecasts are not hot but it stays dry in the dry areas.

September corn is up 10¢ and December corn is 11¢ higher. August soybeans are trading 46¢ higher and November soybeans are up 26¢. Wheat futures are 1¢ lower to 5¢ higher.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, corn and soybean futures are mixed. On the Matif exchange in Europe, wheat futures have turned lower and are now down 7¢ a bushel.

The USDA Crop conditions report showed corn ratings down 3% at 58% good to excellent, this was a larger drop than anticipated.

For soybeans, the USDA showed ratings at 59% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.

Ratings are below last year and using these numbers and plugging in historic relationships for early August, corn yield goes down to 174 and soybean yields down to 50 bushel per acre.

We have the big USDA Reports on Friday, but it is also important to watch the USDA export sales report on Thursday. Europe is starting to buy U.S. corn and that could be very significant going forward.

In the livestock markets on Tuesday, October hogs are down $1.10, October cattle are trading 90¢ lower, and November Feeder Cattle are down $1.50.

GRAIN MARKETS MOVE HIGH: 9:00 A.M.

The grain markets are moving higher on lower crop ratings from the USDA yesterday and a warmer, drier forecast into next week. Corn and soybean crop ratings are now lower than the long-term average.

September corn is up `6¢ and December corn is up 15¢. August soybeans are trading 41¢ higher and November soybeans are up 35¢. Wheat futures are 7-10¢ higher.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, corn and soybean futures are mixed. On the Matif exchange in Europe, wheat futures are 3¢ a bushel higher at $11.26.

The USDA Crop conditions report showed corn ratings down 3% at 58% good to excellent. This was a larger drop than anticipated.

For soybeans, the USDA showed ratings at 59% good to excellent, which is down 1% from last week.

Yesterday we had several new crop corn and soybean sales announcements with China buying new crop soybeans and several cargoes of corn sold to Europe.

Looking ahead to the USDA reports on Friday, the top has come off this year’s yield potential in the western Corn Belt, but the central and eastern Corn Belt have above normal yield potential. It’s a hard call, but I look for a slight reduction in the projected yields on Friday.

In the early trade in livestock futures, are all lower.

For a free trial of The Kluis Report including three times a day market updates and the Saturday newsletter, visit kluiscommodities.com, call 888-345-2855, or email info@kluiscommodityadvisors.com

About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.

Editor’s Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

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