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Corn and wheat low, soybeans jump at close | Monday, November 21, 2022

Corn and wheat low, soybeans high at market close: 2:30 PM

Corn and wheat futures settled the day lower while soybeans were higher at the close. January soybeans managed to settle above the 20-day average. Corn closed within a few pennies of the low for the day. Wheat recovered nicely from the early session lows. Traders are ready for the increased volatility that comes from the light volume trade as we dive into the holiday-shortened trading week.

Crude oil futures traded over a $5 range today. The low hit today was below the Sept. 26 major level of support and put prices at the lowest level since Jan. 24. The recovery rally seen after briefly breaking below that line of support was quite impressive and should give the bulls an upper hand if they can string together consecutive days of higher highs and higher lows.

The U.S. dollar was able to rally today and close above the 10-day moving average. This is a good sign for the dollar bulls as we have not closed over this line of resistance since Nov. 3. Overhead targets include the 100-day average at 108.91 and the 20-day average at 109.19. Those two moving averages will cross this week, which makes it an even bigger target area to test.

Livestock futures were mixed at the close today. January Feeder Cattle were up $1.85, December Live Cattle were up 47¢ and December Lean Hogs were down 42¢. The January Feeder Cattle contract gapped higher today and touched the 100-day average during the day. If the bulls can push through the 100-day in a convincing fashion, we could see a push toward the $186 area.

At the close, December corn was down 8¢, January soybeans were up 8¢, and wheat futures were down 2 to 4¢.

Grain markets choppy at mid-day: 11:00 AM

The grain markets are under pressure in another choppy day of trade.

The weather forecasts are favorable for South America and crude oil and energy price are sharply lower.

Funds are holding long positions in corn and soybeans and the risk is they will liquidate positions in a thin market later this week.

The December to March corn spread is now out to 3¢, and I expect that to widen out as we approach the first delivery day on the December contract.

The key price support level I am watching in crude oil is at the September low at $75.70. Closing below that support level this week projects crude oil down to the next level of support at $68.00. Last year, energy prices put in a major low in late November. Will that work again in 2022?

At this time, December corn trading is 7¢ lower. January soybeans are down 4¢.

Wheat futures are 7¢ lower to 2¢ higher.

Livestock futures are mixed, with hogs lower and cattle and feeder cattle higher.

Grain markets start the week mostly lower: 9:00 AM

The grain markets are mostly lower in the early trade on Monday. The Argentine government is again changing the soybean currency ratio to allow farmers to get about 22% more for their soybeans than last week. This will likely create a massive amount of soybean sales again in late November.

Crude oil is sharply lower again today, taking out major support at $75.50. The extreme weakness again this week is putting pressure on the commodity complex.

Around the world, stock prices are mostly lower. In China, corn prices are higher, with soybean prices lower. Wheat futures on the Matif exchange and Europe wheat futures are 4¢ lower.

The chart patterns I work with project a potential low late this week in the corn and soybean market. Look at the 20 to 21 day low to low pattern. 

At this time, December corn trading 3¢ lower. January soybeans are down 3¢. Wheat futures are 8 to10¢ lower.

Cattle futures are higher after the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed report from last Friday, while hog futures are lower. 

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