Grain prices end the day under pressure | Friday, July 1, 2022
U.S. grain prices ended the trade on Friday lower. September corn was down 9 cents with December corn down 12 ¼ cents. August soybean futures were 50 ¾ cents lower with November beans down 62 ¾ cents. September Chicago wheat closed down 37 ½ cents. September Kansas City wheat closed down 37 ¾ cents ,and September Minneapolis wheat closed down 42 cents.
Livestock prices closed the day higher. Live cattle futures finished the day up $2.02 on the August contract. August feeder cattle closed up 90 cents. July lean hog futures closed the day 47 cents higher.
Crude oil is up $2.44, and the Dow futures are 322 points higher.
Another rough week of trading for U.S. grain prices. Fund selling was the major topic this week and that continued all week long. A combination of recession talks and month end and quarter end all added to reasons why the funds liquidated so many contracts this week.
Weather is calling for some rain to hit Iowa and Illinois over the long holiday weekend. If the rain doesn’t materialize or underperforms, we will likely see a higher trade come Tuesday. The next 10-day weather forecast looks to be non-threatening, but from July 10 to 20 there are some models talking about a warmer and drier pattern. We are very much into a weather market so look for the direction of trade next week to be based off of the latest weather maps.
Livestock markets had a good close to the week with higher cash prices in both live cattle and lean hogs, pushing prices up at the end of the week. Seasonally speaking, we normally see lean hogs sell off for a few weeks and live cattle to push a little higher. Livestock markets the past two weeks seem to be getting some of their direction though from the stock markets.
Grain markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the July 4th holiday. Trade will resume at 8:30 a.m. CT on Tuesday morning. Have a safe and happy 4th of July!
More selling in grain markets: 10:45 a.m.
At midday, September corn futures are down 6 to 7 cents with December corn futures down 10 to 11 cents. August soybean futures are 45 to 46 cents lower with November futures down 57 to 58 cents. September Chicago wheat is 28 cents lower. September Kansas City wheat is 40 cents lower, and September Minneapolis wheat is 39 cents lower.
Livestock prices are higher with live cattle up $2.77. Feeder cattle are $1.37 higher. Lean hogs are up 87 cents per hundred. Livestock markets are catching fire. String cash market is helping support the live cattle. Live cattle supplies look to be on the tight side as we head into the fall timeframe, and this should help support prices going forward. Feeder cattle are getting good support from the corn market being under pressure.
Crude oil is up $2.29 this morning, and the Dow futures are 103 points lower.
More fund selling is the topic today. After a neutral to friendly crop report yesterday, the funds have been in a liquidation mode. Some of the selling is due to month end and quarter end as fund close out positions to balance everything out.
Weather forecasts are calling for rain in the Midwest over the three-day weekend and that seems to help pressure the corn and bean markets even more. Temperatures still remain very seasonal. Once we get past the Fourth of July holiday, the market will pay extra close attention to the weather maps and the temperatures as we will start to see parts of the U.S. head into the crucial pollination season.
Grain prices mostly lower this morning: 8:45 a.m.
September corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower. August soybean futures are 23-24 cents lower. September Chicago wheat is 2 cents higher. September Kansas City wheat futures are 3 cents lower, and September Minneapolis wheat futures are 5 cents lower.
Livestock prices are higher this morning. Live cattle are $2.57 higher. Feeder cattle are $1.05 higher. Lean hog futures are 72 cents higher.
Crude oil is up $2.25 this morning, and the stock market is down 63 points to start off today's trade.
Choppy action in the grain markets for Friday after the USDA released their Acreage report and Quarterly Grain Stocks report yesterday. Overall, the report was neutral to friendly on soybeans, but the traders did not trade it that way. Weather today is non-threatening but we will need to get some moisture soon in a few area.
Open interest continues to drop in commodities as the investor is content to take the money and head to the sidelines. It seems it will take a major weather event this summer to get the outside money to come back into the grain prices. Until that happens, it feels like rallies will likely be hard to sustain.
In the livestock markets, live cattle continue to battle between recession fears and friendly fundamentals. Cash is moving higher, especially in the north, but we lack the outside investor to push futures higher. Feeder cattle are pushing higher mainly from the lower corn prices over the past two weeks.
Look for a choppy trade today as traders take off early ahead of a three-day weekend.
About the Author: Cory Bratland is the youngest of five children who grew up on his family’s farm near Willow Lake, South Dakota. Bratland attended Willow Lake High School and graduated with an A.A.S. degree in ag business management at Lake Area Technical Institute in Watertown, South Dakota. He began his career as a cash grain marketer and grain trader with Cargill, Inc. While working for Cargill, Inc. Bratland held various merchandising jobs across South Dakota and Minnesota. In 2003, he was licensed as a Series 3 and 30 commodity broker. In 2008, Bratland left Cargill to be an independent commodity broker, starting Prairie Ag Marketing Services. In 2009, he partnered with Al Kluis as an affiliate office. In 2010, he became Kluis Commodity Advisors' Chief Grain Strategist. In addition to working with Al daily on marketing strategies, Bratland also serves private clients through Kluis Publishing and Prairie Ag Marketing. He lives near Willow Lake, South Dakota with his wife Erica and children, Hunter, Elliot and Isabella. He still actively participates in the family farm that raises corn, soybeans, alfalfa, and also runs a cow/calf operation.
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