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Wheat ended the day limit up with corn and soybeans stronger | Monday, May 16, 2022

U.S. grain prices ended the trade on Monday higher. July corn was up 28 ¼ cents with December corn up 16 ¾ cents. July soybean futures were 10 cents higher with November beans up 13 ¾ cents. July Chicago wheat closed up 70 cents, July Kansas City wheat closed up 70 cents, and July Minneapolis wheat closed up 60 cents.

Livestock prices closed the day mixed. Live cattle futures finished the day up $1.10 on the June contract. May feeder cattle closed down 47 cents, and June lean hog futures closed the day $3.07 higher.

Crude oil is up $3.65 and the Dow futures were 27 points higher.

The big story today was India banning wheat exports. India is trying to calm domestic food price inflation while maintaining food security. How long will they hold this ban in place? Time will tell.

Today's Planting Progress report showed corn planting at 49% planted with soybeans at 30% planted. Spring wheat is at 39% planted. Winter wheat rating decreased 2% in the Good/Excellent category and is currently rated at 27% Good/Excellent. Weather looks to provide many growers an open window to get the crop planted this week, so look for a big increase in plantings next week.

NOPA released its April crush numbers this morning and showed 169.8 million bushels of soybeans crushed for April. This was down from a March number of 181.8 million bushels and about 2 million bushels less that expectations. Spreads weakened a bit after the release of the report. 

Keep a close eye on the weather. A dry week this week should get most of the crop planted. However, the forecast for week two looks wet. Getting into late May, those acres not planted could possibly go to prevent plant acres. 

Midday Comments: 11 a.m.

At midday, July corn futures are up 19¢ to 20¢ with December corn futures up 13¢. July soybean futures are 7¢ higher with November futures up 9¢ to 10¢. July Chicago wheat is 70¢ lower. July Kansas City wheat is 67¢ higher and July Minneapolis is 53¢ higher.

Livestock prices are mixed with live cattle up 52¢; feeder cattle are 97¢ lower and lean hogs up $3.07 per hundred.

Crude oil is up $1.16 this morning and the Dow futures are 83 points lower.

Wheat prices continue to stay very strong here this morning. India’s ban on wheat exports is a shock to the wheat market when just last week the USDA projected India to export a record amount. Now, the question is how long will the wheat export ban stay in place?

NOPA will release its monthly soybean crush report here at 11:00 CT. Trade is looking for a number about 172.4 million bushels. If achieved, this would be a record crush number for April.

Lean hog futures are getting a nice bounce higher here this morning with talks of China easing back on some of their COVID restrictions. The market seems to be pricing in some potential export demand for U.S. pork.

Weather looks to be pretty wide open this week for much of the U.S. for corn and soybean plantings. There are a few scattered rain events, but those will be pretty mild. Look for a lot of crop to get planted this week. The week two forecast does sound a bit wet again for areas already saturated.

Watch where we close today vs. where we trade. Seasonally speaking this is a good time of year to see a near-term high being put in for corn and soybeans.

Opening Comments: 9 a.m.

July corn futures are 16¢ to 17¢ higher. July soybean futures are 17¢ to 18¢ higher. July Chicago wheat is 56¢ to 57¢ higher. July Kansas City wheat futures are 60¢ to 61¢ higher, and July Minneapolis wheat futures are 47¢ higher.

Livestock prices are mixed this morning. Live cattle are 20¢ higher. Feeder cattle are $1.50 to $1.60 lower, and lean hog futures are $1.50 to $1.60 higher.

Crude oil is down 38¢ this morning and the stock market is down 75 points to start Monday’s trade.

India’s surprise ban on wheat exports has the wheat market surging higher this morning. Hot and dry conditions are limiting the country’s wheat crop. To curb domestic inflation, India has decided to ban wheat exports. In a tight global supply situation, this is just adding fuel to the fire.

Corn and soybean planting got rolling last week. This afternoon many are looking for U.S. corn planting to be 46% to 48% with soybeans around 30% planted. The Dakotas and northern Minnesota are still very wet and patiently waiting to really get rolling on planting their crops.

China seems to be lifting some of its COVID bans as more people start to get out and about. This should help stir up some demand for U.S. pork in the coming weeks. I am still hearing of tight supplies for lean hogs in the coming months.

About the Author: Cory Bratland is the youngest of five children who grew up on his family's farm near Willow Lake, South Dakota. Bratland attended school at Willow Lake High School and graduated with an A.A.S. degree in Ag Business Management at Lake Area Technical Institute in Watertown, South Dakota. He began his career as a cash grain marketer and grain trader with Cargill, Inc. While working for Cargill, Inc. Bratland held various merchandising jobs across South Dakota and Minnesota. In 2003, he was licensed as a Series 3 and 30 commodity broker. In 2008, Bratland left Cargill to be an independent commodity broker, starting Prairie Ag Marketing Services. In 2009, he partnered with Al Kluis as an affiliate office. In 2010, he became Kluis Commodity Advisors' Chief Grain Strategist. In addition to working with Al daily on marketing strategies, Bratland also serves private clients through Kluis Publishing and Prairie Ag Marketing. He lives near Willow Lake, South Dakota with his wife Erica and children, Hunter, Elliot and Isabella. He still actively participates in the family farm that raises corn, soybeans, alfalfa and also runs a cow/calf operation.

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Editor’s Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

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