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Grain prices end the day under pressure | Thursday, June 30, 2022

U.S. grain prices ended the trade on Wednesday lower. July corn was down 26 ½ cents with December corn down 34 cents. July soybean futures were ¾ cents higher with November beans down 20 ¼ cents. July Chicago wheat closed down 46 ¾ cents. July Kansas City wheat closed down 36 ½ cents, and July Minneapolis wheat closed down 31 ¾ cents.        

Livestock prices closed the day mixed. Live cattle futures finished the day up $1.20 on the June contract. August feeder cattle closed up $2.87. July lean hog futures closed the day 27 cents lower.   

Crude oil is down $4.08 and the Dow futures are 284 points lower.  

The USDA Acreage report showed one surprise and that was soybean acres coming in at 88.3 million vs. average trade estimates of 90.4 million. Corn acres clocked in right where the trade was estimating at 89.9 million acres. The wheat acres were up slightly at 47.1 million acres vs. trade estimates of 47.0 million.

The Quarterly Grain stocks report was very neutral. All three grain stocks came within 6 million bushels of trade estimates. 

So why the selloff in grains today? Typically with a neutral report we will still see prices drift lower, but today’s action was more than that. We are still seeing money flow exit the commodity markets as we are at month end and quarter end. Many traders are liquidating their positions to get a balance of where they ended the quarter. Also, recession seems to be weighing on everyone’s mind as well, spooking investors. 

Heading into Friday, I would expect a choppy day of trading. We will probably see some end users step in to buy this selloff. However, are the funds done liquidating their positions?

Grain prices remain lower at midday: 10:30 a.m.

At midday, July corn futures are down 5 to 6 cents with December corn futures down 16 to 17 cents. July soybean futures are 14 to 15 cents lower with November futures down 20 to 21 cents. July Chicago wheat is 7 cents lower. July Kansas City wheat is 1 cent lower, and July Minneapolis is 4 cents lower.    

The weekly U.S. Export Sales report was very disappointing for corn and soybeans and that is adding to the pressure. Wheat is staging a small bounce back after the weekly export sales showed a very good week for wheat sales.

Livestock prices are firmer this morning. Good pork and beef export sales is helping add support. Livestock prices are higher with live cattle up 2 cents. Feeder cattle are $1.02 higher, and lean hogs are up 42 cents per hundred. 

Crude oil is down $4.08 this morning, and the Dow futures are 347 points lower.

Weather continues to look favorable with crop growth, but there could be a drier trend through the middle of July. Temps look to be very seasonal. Unless we get some extreme heat, the U.S. corn and soybean crops should continue to improve. 

Traders continue to take money out of the commodity markets and go to the sidelines. USDA will release its Acreage report and Quarterly Grain Stocks report at 11:00 a.m. CT, so we are sure to see lots of action in the grain prices today.

Grain prices mostly lower this morning: 8:35 a.m.

July corn futures are 5 to 6 cents lower. July soybean futures are 6 to 7 cents lower. July Chicago wheat is 5 cents lower. July Kansas City wheat futures are 3 cents higher, and July Minneapolis wheat futures are 3 cents lower.

Livestock prices are higher this morning. Live cattle are 15 cents higher. Feeder cattle are 82 cents higher, and lean hog futures are 27 cents higher.  

Crude oil is down $1.92, and the stock market is down 333 points to start off today's trade.

It is report day. USDA will release its Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports at 11 a.m. CT. Here are the estimates: Corn acres are projected at 89.9 million acres and soybeans projected at 90.5 million acres. For the Quarterly Grain Stocks the average trade estimates are 4.34 billion bushels of corn, 965 million bushels of soybeans and 655 million bushels of wheat. 

The weekly U.S. Export Sales report was released this morning. Overall, the report was disappointing. Corn exports came in at only 208,100 metric tons of both old crop and new crop bushels. For soybeans, there were net cancelations of 120,100 metric tons of old crop and new crop sales of 127,600 metric tons for a net weekly sales report of only 7,500 metric tons. Wheat, however, did have a very good week of export sales coming in at 496,700 metric tons. 

In the livestock markets, the weekly export sales were pretty good for both pork and beef complexes. Pork exports clocked in at 32,300 metric tons, and the beef exports came in at 17,000 metric tons. Yesterday’s hog and pig report was pretty neutral overall. 

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About the Author: Cory Bratland is the youngest of five children who grew up on his family’s farm near Willow Lake, South Dakota. Bratland attended Willow Lake High School and graduated with an A.A.S. degree in ag business management at Lake Area Technical Institute in Watertown, South Dakota. He began his career as a cash grain marketer and grain trader with Cargill, Inc. While working for Cargill, Inc. Bratland held various merchandising jobs across South Dakota and Minnesota. In 2003, he was licensed as a Series 3 and 30 commodity broker. In 2008, Bratland left Cargill to be an independent commodity broker, starting Prairie Ag Marketing Services. In 2009, he partnered with Al Kluis as an affiliate office. In 2010, he became Kluis Commodity Advisors' Chief Grain Strategist. In addition to working with Al daily on marketing strategies, Bratland also serves private clients through Kluis Publishing and Prairie Ag Marketing. He lives near Willow Lake, South Dakota with his wife Erica and children, Hunter, Elliot and Isabella. He still actively participates in the family farm that raises corn, soybeans, alfalfa, and also runs a cow/calf operation.

Editor’s Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

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