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Wheat posts impressive gains today | Monday, June 6, 2022

The wheat market surged today. Corn closed higher, and soybeans managed to post small gains ahead of today's USDA Crop Progress report. Weather is a mixed bag with good planting conditions this week in the northern and western Corn Belt. However, there is some rain moving from the Southern Plains into the Delta.

July corn closed 15 cents higher today at $7.42. December corn closed up 12 cents at $7.02. July soybean futures closed up 1 cent at $16.99, while the November contract closed 6 cents higher. Wheat futures closed higher with CBOT wheat closing up 53 cents, KC wheat up 49 and Minneapolis wheat up 39 cents.

Today's USDA Crop Progress report showed that 94% of the corn is planted nationwide. That compares to 86% last year and the five-year average of 92%. The initial crop rating came in at 73% good to excellent. 

For soybeans, the report showed that 78% has been planted; this compares to 66% last week and the five-year average of 79%. 

Spring wheat planting advanced to 82% this was 1% less than the trade estimate and compares to 96% in the five-year average. The major states have 2 million acres of spring wheat left to plant.

Looking ahead here are three key factors to watch.

  1. What, if anything, happens when Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia meet on Wednesday?
  2. What the USDA Supply/Demand report has to say on Friday.
  3. Will the extended forecast for late June and into July stay hot and dry?

In the outside markets, the U.S. dollar is trading higher. Crude oil is down 66 cents per barrel, and the stock market moved lower with the Dow down 355 points at this hour.

For livestock, June hogs closed down 97 cents at $109.22. June cattle closed down 77 cents at $132.82, and August feeders closed down $1.90 at $171.97. 

MIDDAY COMMENTS: 11:15 A.M.

The wheat market has been strong enough to pull the corn market higher while soybean futures are steady to slightly higher. It is a low volume day of trade with traders waiting to see if any progress can be made to open the Black Sea grain corridor when Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey meet on Wednesday, June 8. With Russia demanding that it will only allow grain to move if the U.S. drops its economic sanctions, I do not think this will go anywhere. Russia is once again playing the blame game.

At this hour, July corn has had a 13-cent trading range and is currently up 16 cents. December corn is up 14 cents. July soybeans have had a 28-cent trading range and are currently up 2 cents. November soybeans are 3 cents higher. Wheat futures are higher, with CBOT wheat up 58 cents. KC wheat is up 54 cents, and Minneapolis wheat is 42 cents higher.

The trade will watch closely to see what percent of the corn and spring wheat crops still have to go in in Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. I think the report today will show that about 5 million acres still need to be planted or will now be switched to soybeans.

In the outside markets, crude oil is now down 10 cents per barrel. The U.S. stock market is higher with the Dow up116 points.   

OPENING COMMENTS: 9:30 A.M.

Wet weather over the weekend with more rain forecast for this week along with the bombing of a major export elevator in Ukraine rallied grain prices overnight. Once the day session started, corn pulled back from its 10-cent rally, soybeans turned lower on the day, and wheat prices are higher holding onto and adding to the overnight rally.

After starting out lower, July corn is now up 7 cents. July soybeans are trading 4 cents higher, and wheat futures are 42 to 58 cents higher.

The key to watch in the USDA Crop Progress report today will be the planting numbers to see how much progress was made last week in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. I think spring wheat acres may come in about 1.2 million acres less than the March intentions report, and corn may also be over 1 million acres less than earlier projections.

In the outside markets, crude oil is down 10 cents per barrel. The U.S. stock market is higher, and livestock futures are steady to lower.

For a free trial of The Kluis Report including three times a day market updates and the Saturday newsletter, visit kluiscommodities.com, call 888-345-2855, or email info@kluiscommodityadvisors.com

About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.

Editor’s Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

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