Grain prices mixed at market close | Friday, June 10, 2022
U.S. grain prices ended the day mixed. July corn was down ¼ cent with December corn up 3 ¾ cents. July soybean futures were 23 ½ cent lower with November beans down 14 cents. July Chicago wheat closed down ½ cent. July Kansas City wheat closed up 8 ¾ cents, and July Minneapolis wheat closed down 2 ½ cents.
Livestock prices closed the day mixed. Live cattle futures finished the day down 85 cents on the June contract. August feeder cattle closed down $1.55, and June lean hog futures closed the day 82 cents higher.
Crude oil is down 88 cents and the Dow futures were 879 points lower.
USDA released its June Monthly Crop Production report. Overall not many surprises. They did decrease U.S. corn exports for this current marketing year by 45 million bushels. This allowed for carryout to push up to 1.485 billion bushels. USDA did increase U.S. exports for soybeans and now the carryout for this marketing year is down to 205 million bushels.
For the 2022/2023 marketing year USDA is projecting a national yield on corn of 177 bushels per acre and 51.5 bushels per acre on soybeans. Carryout for corn is projected at 1.4 billion bushels and 280 million soybeans bushels. Net/net we need to have good weather through July and August in order for the US to grow another good crop!
The stock market was hit hard today and this week. The inflation report out this morning suggests that year over year inflation is at 8.6% and running hotter than most anticipated. That bearish report caused the stock market to selloff early this morning, and the U.S. dollar was pushed higher.
In the livestock markets today, cattle took a breather and were down. However, a good week for live cattle and feeder cattle futures. Seasonally, our lows are in place, and currently, we are seeing lower numbers along with higher cash being paid. This is a recipe for higher prices. Lean hogs are just the opposite. Cash is firm but the carcass values are lower, and export numbers seem to be falling off.
As we head into next week, many are expecting Monday's Crop Progress Report to show corn ratings increase 1% to 2% in the Good/Excellent category and be 74% to 75% Good/Excellent.
MIDDAY COMMENTS: 10:45 A.M.
At midday, July corn futures are down 2 to 3 cents with December corn futures down 1 to 2 cents. July soybean futures are 15 to 16 cents lower with November futures down 16 to 17 cents. July Chicago wheat is 10 cents lower. July Kansas City wheat is 5 cents lower, and July Minneapolis is 2 cents lower.
Livestock prices are mixed with live cattle down 65 cents. Feeder cattle are 95 cents lower, and lean hogs are up 90 cents per hundred.
Crude oil is down $2.60 this morning, and the Dow futures are 758 points lower.
It is all about the outside market today ahead of the USDA Crop Production report. Inflation continues to run hotter than analysts expected and that is weighing on the stock market and crude oil. That, in turn, is causing some sell off in grain prices.
The weather looks to turn warmer and dryer. Initially, that will be very beneficial for crop growth. If the warm and dry forecast continues into the middle of July when pollination occurs, then we might see some fireworks in the corn and soybean markets.
Livestock markets are mixed this morning. Beef complex is taking a breather to end the week after a very strong week of higher trade. Lean hogs are getting a little bounce after being down hard earlier this week. Live cattle market seems to be wanting to push higher as numbers are low and demand is still very strong. Hogs are the opposite; we seem to have plenty of hogs, and the carcass values keep dropping.
Keep a close eye on where prices close out the week today and after the USDA Crop Production report. Will the market react to the USDA numbers or is hotter inflation going to continue to cause investors to take money to the sidelines?
OPENING COMMENTS: 8:45 A.M.
Grain prices are lower this morning. July corn futures are 1 to 2 cents lower. July soybean futures are 8 to 9 cents lower. July Chicago wheat is 8 cents lower. July Kansas City wheat futures are 7 cents lower, and July Minneapolis wheat futures are 2 cents lower.
Livestock prices are mixed this morning. Live cattle are 75 cents lower. Feeder cattle are $1.35 lower, and lean hog futures are 83 cents higher.
Crude oil is down $1.17 this morning and the Stock market is down 605 points to start off todays’ trade.
It’s report day. U.S. grain prices have been choppy as traders position themselves for the Monthly Crop Production report, which will be released at 11 a.m. CT. Look for the choppy trade to continue until the report is released this morning. Will the USDA increase projected yield for corn and will the USDA trim old crop carryout stocks are the two big questions related to the report.
Weather looks to warm up and dry out the next two weeks and last until the end of June. Initially, this will be very good for crop growth and allow the U.S. to catch up on a few growing degree days. However, there is a feeling this warmer and drier trend could last into July. We need to grow a big crop in the U.S., so any major heat and dryness during pollination will be a major concern.
May CPI was released this morning and the year over year inflation rate is at 8.6%. Trade was looking for 8.3%, so inflation continues to run hotter than expected. That put pressure on the stock market and will suggest the Feds will likely keep increasing interest rates by at least 50 basis points at their next meeting.
About the Author: Cory Bratland is the youngest of five children who grew up on his family’s farm near Willow Lake, South Dakota. Bratland attended Willow Lake High School and graduated with an A.A.S. degree in ag business management at Lake Area Technical Institute in Watertown, South Dakota. He began his career as a cash grain marketer and grain trader with Cargill, Inc. While working for Cargill, Inc. Bratland held various merchandising jobs across South Dakota and Minnesota. In 2003, he was licensed as a Series 3 and 30 commodity broker. In 2008, Bratland left Cargill to be an independent commodity broker, starting Prairie Ag Marketing Services. In 2009, he partnered with Al Kluis as an affiliate office. In 2010, he became Kluis Commodity Advisors' Chief Grain Strategist. In addition to working with Al daily on marketing strategies, Bratland also serves private clients through Kluis Publishing and Prairie Ag Marketing. He lives near Willow Lake, South Dakota with his wife Erica and children, Hunter, Elliot and Isabella. He still actively participates in the family farm that raises corn, soybeans, alfalfa, and also runs a cow/calf operation.
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