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Grain prices end the day mixed after a choppy day of trade | Wednesday, June 29, 2022

U.S. grain prices ended the trade on Wednesday mixed. July corn was up 10 ¾ cents with December corn down 5 ½ cents. July soybean futures were 10 ½ cents higher with November beans up 15 ¾ cents. July Chicago wheat closed down 5 ¾ cents. July Kansas City wheat closed up 1 ½ cents, and July Minneapolis wheat closed down 15 ¼ cents.        

Livestock prices closed the day mixed. Live cattle futures finished the day up 50 cents on the June contract. August feeder cattle closed down $1.10/ July lean hog futures closed the day 52 cents lower.   

Crude oil is down $2.48, and the Dow futures were 81 points higher.  

The day before the USDA Acreage and the Quarterly Grain Stocks reports are released, we saw a lot of traders get themselves positioned. We saw a lot of wild action in corn and soybeans involving the spreads. First notice day is tomorrow, so traders were getting out of July to avoid delivery. 

Overall, volume has been a bit on the light side this week. If you combine this with open interest dropping, we are seeing traders take their money out and go to the sidelines to get through these reports and the upcoming three-day weekend. 

Cash basis levels on both corn and soybeans across the U.S. have a weaker feel to them today. The past few weeks we have seen some very good corn basis levels being paid for cash corn. The reason for the good basis is poor logistic issues and farmers holding on to their last few bushels with tight hands. 

Tomorrow is certain to be an eventful day with the USDA Acreage and the Quarterly Grain Stocks reports out at 11:00 a.m. CT.  

Grain prices choppy at midday: 10:35 a.m.

At midday, July corn futures up 8 to 9 cents with December corn futures down 4 to 5 cents. July soybean futures are 14 cents higher with November futures up 9 to 10 cents. July Chicago wheat is 5 cents lower. July Kansas City wheat is 2 cents lower, and July Minneapolis wheat is 6 cents lower.  

There has been some wild action in the spreads today. July corn has been up as much as 20 cents higher while the September and December contracts stay under pressure and lower on the day. First notice day is tomorrow, so many traders are cleaning up positions to get out of their July contracts ahead of delivery notices. 

Weather looks to be a non-factor to the grain markets. We do have the USDA Acreage and the Quarterly Grain Stocks reports tomorrow. After that, we will have a three-day weekend for the July 4th holiday on Monday. So keep a close eye on the weather forecasts this weekend. 

Livestock prices are mixed with live cattle up 7 cents. Feeder cattle are $1.00 lower. Lean hogs are down 65 cents per hundred. 

Crude oil is up 20 cents at midday. Crude oil futures found some support early on but have since pulled back. We ran into some resistance up around $114 on the August contract. 

The Dow futures are 52 points higher.  

Overall, we are still seeing the money flow exit the commodity markets as a whole, which is having a negative impact on all commodities.

Grain prices start the day strong: 8:35 a.m.

U.S. grain prices are higher this morning. July corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher. July soybean futures are 9 to 10 cents higher. July Chicago wheat is 11 cents higher. July Kansas City wheat futures are 14 cents higher, and July Minneapolis wheat futures are 9 cents higher.

Livestock prices are mixed this morning. Live cattle are 60 cents higher. Feeder cattle are 62 cents higher. Lean hog futures are 17 cents lower.  

The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be out today at 2 p.m. CT. Seasonally speaking, lean hogs should push lower over the next few weeks. Cash was higher yesterday, but the cutout and carcass values were lower. Rallies in hogs seem to be tough to hold right now.

Crude oil is up $1.24 this morning, and the stock market is up 5 points to start off today's trade.

Overall a pretty quiet trade in the overnight session and into this early morning. Weather looks to continue to stay dry, but the heat stays away at least through mid-July. Traders are busy positioning themselves ahead of the key USDA Acreage report and the Quarterly Grain Stocks report, which will be released tomorrow (June 30) at 11:00 a.m. CT.

Trade estimates for tomorrow's report suggest the trade is looking for 89.9 million corn acres and 90.5 million soybean acres. Regarding the stocks report, the trade is looking for corn stocks to be at 4.34 billion bushels, soybean stocks at 965 million bushels, and wheat stocks at 655 million bushels. This report has a tendency to throw us a curve ball, so volatility is pretty high. 

The weekly U.S. Export Sales report is also being released tomorrow (7:30 a.m. CT). 

The stock market yesterday failed to hold a higher start and sold off 400+ points on the day. This has been the pattern where any strength has been tough to hold and does suggest we might be close to a recession. 

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About the Author: Cory Bratland is the youngest of five children who grew up on his family’s farm near Willow Lake, South Dakota. Bratland attended Willow Lake High School and graduated with an A.A.S. degree in ag business management at Lake Area Technical Institute in Watertown, South Dakota. He began his career as a cash grain marketer and grain trader with Cargill, Inc. While working for Cargill, Inc. Bratland held various merchandising jobs across South Dakota and Minnesota. In 2003, he was licensed as a Series 3 and 30 commodity broker. In 2008, Bratland left Cargill to be an independent commodity broker, starting Prairie Ag Marketing Services. In 2009, he partnered with Al Kluis as an affiliate office. In 2010, he became Kluis Commodity Advisors' Chief Grain Strategist. In addition to working with Al daily on marketing strategies, Bratland also serves private clients through Kluis Publishing and Prairie Ag Marketing. He lives near Willow Lake, South Dakota with his wife Erica and children, Hunter, Elliot and Isabella. He still actively participates in the family farm that raises corn, soybeans, alfalfa, and also runs a cow/calf operation.

Editor’s Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

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