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Important Reports to Monitor this May
While you’re busy in the fields this month, there are a few reports coming that will likely trigger larger-than-normal market reactions. Historically, the month of May is a dud for grain and livestock markets with little change on the supply and demand balance sheets, but this year could be different. Here are the important reports to watch for:
Thursday, May 10 USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand Report
On this report, the key things to watch will be global production for corn and soybeans for Argentina and Brazil. Will the USDA again reduce the size of the corn and soybean crop in Argentina? Regarding Brazil, trade is expecting the USDA will show the Brazil soybean crop to be larger. Yet now with the current dry conditions in Brazil, could the corn production number become smaller? Trade will also be eagerly monitoring U.S. export demand for corn and soybeans as well. Regardless, trade is anticipating a report that is supportive to the new narrative in the global grain market, which is strong demand and slightly smaller supplies.
Tuesday, May 15 NOPA Crush Report
Recent NOPA Crush reports have highlighted the strong demand for soybean meal and the oversupply of soybean oil. A strong crushing pace is continued to be expected.
Friday, May 18 Milk Production Report
For the dairy market, this report is important. The theme for the past few months has been a steady increase of milk supply, which led to horribly low prices for the dairy complex. Has that theme changed? We will see overall production and a breakdown of milk production in every state.
Friday, May 25 Cattle on Feed
It’s a broken record, “the wall of cattle” supply that has pressured cattle futures lower in recent months. Supplies are indeed plentiful, but is this song overplayed? Is the hefty supply priced into this market? With grilling season finally here, and a drought hitting the southern Plains, the cattle complex fundamentals might be on the verge of shifting.
In addition to the above reports, other aspects to monitor include summer weather forecasts for the U.S. and China. Remember, the U.S. grows one third of the world’s corn, and China grows one quarter of the world’s corn. Weather this summer matters. Also keep an eye on global trade negotiations, and crude oil prices. There is usually one fabulous summer price rally for grains, so be on your toes to make sure you capture the potential rally.
If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at email@example.com.
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