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Grain Markets Sell Off Friday

Investors eye South America’s weather and demand news.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets move lower, digesting news of Argentina ending its truckers strike and crop-weather forecasts edging toward favorable.

At the close, the March corn futures settled 3¾¢ lower at $3.62. May futures finished 3½¢ lower at $3.69¾.

March soybean futures ended 4¾¢ lower at $9.83.  May soybean futures ended 5¼¢ lower at $9.93½.

March wheat futures finished 7½¢ lower at $4.49.

March soy meal futures closed $2.10 per short ton higher at $343.80. January soy oil futures settled 0.25¢ lower at 31.96¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.61 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points higher.

The Argentina truck drivers’strike ended last night. Luis Vieira, Successful Farming’s freelance writer located in Argentina, reports Friday that the government officials received word that the strikers agreed to come to the negotiation table with traders, government, and transportation companies to talk about transport tariffs.

Stewart-Peterson market analysts say that in tender activity, South Korea’s largest feedmaker has issued an international tender to purchase up to 207,000 tons of corn, raising thoughts of already good demand for U.S. supplies.

“The soybean prices are seen hanging in limbo, midrange of their respective trading ranges with little change expected in the South American weather forecasts,” according to Stewart-Peterson analysts.

The firm’s analysts added, “Weather in U.S. winter wheat country is still seen as supportive. However, we’ve now got CBOT wheat 40¢ above contract lows, and KC wheat up 55¢ from its low. So, we question a rebound today, particularly with USDA trimming exports yesterday.”

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets await this morning’s USDA Report, trading mostly higher.

At the close, the March corn futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.65¾; May futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.73¼.

March soybean futures settled 4¾¢ higher at $9.87¾; May soybean futures finished 4½¢ higher at $9.98¾.

March wheat futures finished 4¼¢ lower at $4.56¼.

March soy meal futures ended $6.30 per short ton higher at $341.70. January soy oil futures finished 0.35¢ lower at 32.21¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 75¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 584 points lower.

 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s wheat market closed sharply higher.

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1¾¢ higher at $3.65¼; May futures finished 1½¢ higher at $3.72¾.

March soybean futures ended 3¼¢ lower at $9.83; May soybean futures finished 3½¢ lower at $9.94¼.

March wheat futures closed 14¼¢ higher at $4.60½.

March soy meal futures settled $3.70 per short ton higher at $335.40. January soy oil futures finished 0.60¢ lower at 32.56¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.55 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 172 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says the wheat market is on fire due to profit taking.

“There is investor short covering in the corn and wheat markets, with positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA Crop Report. Investors are anticipating lower stocks on both corn and wheat data sets.”

Roose adds, “The soybean market is trading both sides of unchanged throughout the day on mixed forecasts in Brazil and Argentina.” 

Bob Linneman, Kluis Commodities grain broker, says investors await Thursday’s USDA February Supply/Demand Report.

“Will the USDA make any downward adjustments to U.S. exports in the report on Thursday? If they do, the bears should regain control. If the bulls can maintain control with a bearish report, this rally could get interesting,” Linneman stated in a daily note to customers Wednesday.

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets lean on the stronger soybean market to move higher.

With more dry weather occurring in Argentina, putting more pressure on that country’s soybean crop, the soybean market is responding positively.

At the close, the March corn futures finished 4¾¢ higher at $3.63; May futures end 4¾¢ higher at $3.71¼.

March soybean futures end 16½¢ higher at $9.86¼; May soybean futures closed 16½¢ higher at $9.97¾.

March wheat futures settled 6¢ higher at $4.46.

March soy meal futures finished $4.70 per short ton higher at $331.70. January soy oil futures closed 0.66¢ higher at 32.16¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 82¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 13 points higher.

On Tuesday, the USDA has announced fresh corn sales. Private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

  • Export sales of 120,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2017/2018 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 105,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began September 1.

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm futures prices remain lower.

At the close, the March corn futures settled 2¾¢ lower at $3.58¾; May futures finished 3½¢ lower at $3.66.

March soybean futures ended 8½¢ lower at $9.70; May soybean futures finished 8½¢ lower at $9.81.

March wheat futures finished 4¾¢ lower at $4.42.

March soy meal futures ended $4.30 per short ton lower at $327.10.

January soy oil futures closed 0.03¢ higher at 32.54¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.66 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 1,019 points lower.

Cory Bratland, Kluis Commodities chief grain strategist, says by and large for the markets to rally or be bullish, the bulls need to be fed each day.

“Otherwise, the path of least resistance is downward. Overall, I feel the stock market collapse last Friday has all the markets a bit on edge. We rallied the corn market close to three weeks, and history says we don’t rally much longer than that,” Bratland says.

As with soybeans, there were two higher weeks of trading followed by a lower week last week, he says.

“Last Thursday, the soybean cancellation that led us to poor export number for soybeans was a good reminder that we will soon shift the world demand for soybeans to South America, as they progress further into harvest,” Bratland says.

He added, “There is a big crop in South America, but it is getting smaller. So this correction today is healthy for the market in the long run. We still have lots of supply, but we need to prove or show the market the crop is in fact getting smaller (today it isn’t) in South America.”

On the weather side of things, there is some disappointment in rains for Argentina, but we need to continue to see that same pattern develop first before the market likes to react too much, Bratland says.

There is some good news.

On Monday, private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

  • Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2017/2018 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 198,600 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total 132,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year, and 66,600 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

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