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Soybeans, Wheat Close Higher

Futures continue in a narrow range with corn down.

DES MOINES, Iowa --At the close of Friday’s trading, wheat and soybean futures settled higher.                       .

The Dec. corn futures closed 3¾¢ lower at $3.91. March corn settled 3¾¢ lower at $4.02¾.
 
Nov. soybean futures ended 2½¢ higher at $9.34. Jan. soybean futures were 2¼¢ higher at $9.47½.

Dec. wheat futures closed 6¾¢ higher at $5.32¼

December soymeal futures closed $1.70 per short ton higher at $308.50. December soy oil futures settled 0.03¢ lower at 30.36¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.36 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 168 points lower.

In late trading Friday, earlier gains in soybean futures fell back.

“I think at the end, what really happened is it’s an aggressive harvesting weekend. Ahead of that, we had some prehedging of soybeans and corn,” says Don Roose of U.S. Commodities.

Prehedging occurs when elevators and other buyers take an offsetting position in the markets in order to buy from producers over the weekend when the CME is closed, Roose said.

That capped the soybean rally and kept pressure on already falling corn futures.

Early in the day, USDA’s weekly export sales report boosted soybeans with a sales number at the top end of traders’ expectations but pressured corn futures with corn sales at the low end of prereport guesses.

Variability in soybean yields at harvest also supported soybean futures, he said.

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DES MOINES, Iowa --At midday Friday, grains futures are mixed .

The Dec. corn futures are down 4¢ at $3.90¾.  March corn is 4¼¢ lower at $4.02¼.
 
Nov. soybean futures are 4½¢ higher at $9.36.  Jan. soybean futures are 4¾¢ higher at $9.50.

Dec. wheat futures are 3¾¢ higher at $5.29¼.

December soymeal futures are $2.30 per short ton higher at $309.10. December soy oil futures are 0.12¢ higher at 30.51¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.48 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 188 points lower.

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DES MOINES, Iowa --In early trading Friday, CME futures are mixed following today’s USDA weekly export sales report.

The Dec. corn futures are down 4¢ at $3.90¾. March corn is 3¾¢ lower at $4.02¾.
 
Nov. soybean futures are 1½¢ higher at $9.33. Jan. soybean futures are 1¼¢ higher at $9.46½.

Dec. wheat futures are ½¢ higher at $5.26.

December soymeal futures are $0.60 per short ton higher at $307.40. December soy oil futures are 0.15¢ higher at 30.54¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.36 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points lower.

On Friday, the USDA weekly Export Sales Report showed stronger than expected pork sales, strong soybean sales, and the low end of expected corn sales.

  • Corn: 368,600 metric tons (mt) vs. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000 and 800,000 mt
  • Soybeans: 1.6 million mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 800,000 and 1,700,000 mmt
  • Soybean meal: 152,900mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000 and 450,000 mt
  • Wheat: 395,100 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000 and 550,000 mt

Also, for pork, net sales of 292,200 MT reported for 2019 – a marketing-year high – were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior four-week average.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

The big market mover today could be the pork number, says Don Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

“All eyes are on the hogs. They have had big losses over there in China,” he says

China also bought about half of the soybean sales, which were at the upper range of trade expectations.

Corn sales were at the low end.

“We’re just not competitive (on corn), is the issue,” Roose said. “Argentina is cheaper; Brazil is cheaper; Ukraine is cheaper.”

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DES MOINES, Iowa --At the close of Thursday’s trading  grain futures settled higher.                       .

The Dec. corn futures closed 3¢ higher at $3.94¾. March corn settled 3¢ higher at $4.06½.
 
Nov. soybean futures ended 3½¢ higher at $9.31½. Jan. soybean futures were 3¢ higher at $9.45¼.

Dec. wheat futures closed 12¼¢ higher at $5.25½.

December soymeal futures closed $2.00 per short ton higher at $306.80. December soy oil futures settled 0.01¢ lower at 30.39¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.18 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 47 points higher.

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DES MOINES, Iowa --At midday, grains futures are higher.

The Dec. corn futures are up 2½¢ at $3.94¼. March corn is 2½¢ higher at $4.06.
 
Nov. soybean futures are 4¼¢ higher at $9.32¼. Jan. soybean futures are 3¾¢ higher at $9.46.

Dec. wheat futures are 9¾¢ higher at $5.23.

December soymeal futures are $2.40 per short ton higher at $307.20. December soy oil futures are 0.05¢ higher at 30.45¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.26 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 11 points higher.

“The market responded positively overnight on news from China’s Ministry of Commerce that the Phase 1 agreement is moving forward. This is keeping us on the top end of the ranges since the announcement of the negotiations late last week,” says Kristin Stien of the Commodity Risk Management Group. “Here in eastern Iowa, progress is finally moving forward and we are seeing better-than-expected yields coming out of the field. On another note, Brazil is expected to receive rains this weekend to help their soil moistures as they start off their growing season. This will all likely keep us in the ranges that we are currently in.”

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- In early trading Thursday, CME grains futures are higher.

December corn futures are up 3¾¢ at $3.95½; March corn is 3¢ higher at $4.06½.
 
November soybean futures are 9¢ higher at $9.37; January soybean futures are 8½¢ higher at $9.50¾.

December wheat futures are 7½¢ higher at $5.20¾.

December soy meal futures are $3.30 per short ton higher at $308.10. December soy oil futures are up 0.11¢ at 30.51¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 37¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 65 points higher.

Today, Kluis Commodity Advisors are watching the strength of the dollar.

“The U.S. Dollar Index has been under some pressure the past two weeks and is approaching support at 97.85,” says Al Kluis. “Will the U.S. dollar hold support and head back up? A lower U.S. dollar would be very friendly to U.S. grains.”

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Wednesday’s Market Report

DES MOINES, Iowa -- At the close of Wednesday’s trading, corn and soybean futures ended lower with wheat maintaining gains.

December corn futures closed 1½¢ lower at $3.91¾; March corn settled ¾¢ lower at $4.03½.

November soybean futures ended 6¢ lower at $9.28; January soybean futures were 6¼¢ lower at $9.42¼.

December wheat futures closed 6¼¢ higher at $5.13¼.

December soy meal futures closed $3 per short ton lower at $304.80. December soy oil futures settled 0.01¢ higher at 30.40¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 48¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points higher.

“Grains are unable to find many buys today as we see a second day of risk-off trade as harvest slowly picks up,” says Jason Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. “Producer selling has also picked up, adding to the resistance. More details will need to be given on trade with China to add premium to the soybean complex.” 

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- At midday, wheat futures are rising with corn and soybeans trading slightly lower.

December corn futures are down 2½¢ at $3.90¾; March corn is 2¢ lower at $4.02¼.
 
November soybean futures are 4¼¢ lower at $9.29¾; January soybean futures are 4¾¢ lower at $9.43¾.

December wheat futures are 4¢ higher at $5.11.

December soymeal futures are $2.10 per short ton lower at $305.70. December soy oil futures are 0.02¢ lower at 30.37¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 74¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points lower.

“There are generally weaker corn and soybean prices today on the lack of China demand news and the harvest,” said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group. “Yield reports are highly variable with some reporting very good results but plenty of poor results coming in, as well.  We should be hearing or reading the best results now, so it looks like production estimates will probably need to drop next month. It’s a very quiet day. Farmers are either at harvest or getting ready, and my buy side guys and specs seem quiet. I think we stay a choppy and sideways affair for a while.”  

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- In early trading Wednesday, CME wheat and soybean futures are higher.

December corn futures are down 1¢ at $3.90¼; March corn is ¾¢ lower at $4.03½.
 
November soybean futures are 2½¢ higher at $9.36½; January soybean futures are 2¢ lower at $9.50½.

December wheat futures are 3¾ ¢ higher at $5.10½.

December soy meal futures are 80¢ per short ton higher at $308.60. December soy oil futures are unchanged at 30.39¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 11¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 45 points lower.

Markets are digesting yesterday’s crop report and early harvest yields.

“The cold snap late last week impacted a wider area than anticipated,” said Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors. “The trade will need to see yield reports from those areas to confirm just how much production was lost. The problem right now is many of those areas are too wet to run combines.”

All of this is affecting basis, too.

In the Weekly Crop Progress Report, “Harvest progress was reported at 22% for corn and 26% for soybeans, which is behind the five-year average by 14 percentage points and 23 percentage points,” Kluis said. “Keep an eye on basis levels. If production looks to be short in an area, the basis will likely tighten further. Those areas where production is short should help keep basis tight in a reasonable geographic area.”

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Tuesday’s Market Report

DES MOINES, Iowa -- At the close of Tuesday’s trading grain futures ended lower.

December corn futures closed 4½¢ lower at $3.93¼; March corn settled 3¼¢ lower at $4.04¼.
 
November soybean futures ended 6½¢ lower at $9.34; January soybean futures were 6½¢ lower at $9.48½.

December wheat futures closed 4¢ lower at $5.07.

December soy meal futures closed $3.10 per short ton lower at $307.80. December soy oil futures settled 0.39¢ higher at 30.39¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.42 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 301 points higher.

Ongoing trade uncertainty may be the biggest factor in today's market, said Matt Tranel of the Commodity Risk Management Group in Platteville, Wisconsin.

"Weather and forecasts have straightened out for a lot of areas and is allowing harvest progress for sure," he said. " Certain areas are still in a little bit of a pinch.  The other reason for the pullback in price today is because China wants more time before potentially signing off on Phase One of a trade deal with the United States.  The market is unsure how excited it should be or if it'll be the same ole' song and dance that we've seen before.  That's the bigger reason for the pullback today.  Both countries do seem to have a bit more agreed upon this go around but until more progress is made, the market is sitting in it's 'comfortable range.' "

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- At midday, with trading volume increasing, grain futures continue to move lower.

December corn futures are down 4¢ at $3.93¾; March corn is 3¢ lower at $4.04½.

November soybean futures are 3¢ lower at $9.37½; January soybean futures are also 3¢ lower at $9.52

December wheat futures are 4¢ lower at $5.07.

December soy meal futures are $1.90 per short ton lower at $309.00. December soy oil futures are 0.41¢ higher at 30.41¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 14¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 263 points higher.

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- In early trading Tuesday, CME grains futures are down slightly.

December corn futures are down 2¾¢ at $3.95; March corn is 2½¢ lower at $4.05.
 
November soybean futures are 1½¢ lower at $9.39; January soybean futures are 1½¢ lower at $9.53½.

December wheat futures are 2¢ lower at $5.09.

December soy meal futures are 40¢ per short ton lower at $310.50. December soy oil futures are 0.05¢ higher at 30.05¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 27¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 112 points higher.

The trade is watching for this afternoon’s weekly crop report, delayed one day by the Columbus Day holiday, and it’s checking on early reports of harvest yields. Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors says, “The vast majority of my customers are reporting their early-planted and harvested soybeans are doing the best, but that the further they get into harvest, the more disappointed they are with the soybean yields. This suggests the final yield and soybean crop production will move lower in future USDA reports.

Kluis is also watching for “when this month will China buy U.S. pork and soybeans? How much will they buy?”

On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 142,579 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

(China is often that unknown destination.)

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Monday’s Market Report

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets start the week mixed.

At the close, December corn futures finished unchanged at $3.97¾; March corn futures closed ¼¢ lower at $4.07½.
 
November soybean futures settled 4¼¢ higher at $9.40½; January soybean futures closed 4½¢ higher at $9.55½.

December wheat futures closed 3¢ higher at $5.11.

December soy meal futures settled 10¢ per short ton higher at $310.90. December soy oil futures closed 0.03¢ higher at 30.00¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.18 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 19 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says the farm markets try to decipher mixed trading news.

“Grains are having a mixed day following a strong close ahead of the weekend with positive trade talks with China. Still, there are many uncertainties such as harvest weather, with dry weather allowing some areas of the Midwest to resume harvest, which is adding resistance to the corn rally.”

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says investors are trading weather and demand.
 
“Weather concerns and optimism about positive trade talks with China rallied the grain markets. On Friday, corn closed up 17¢, soybeans 12¢ higher, and wheat futures closed 11¢ to 16¢ higher. Later on Friday, a Phase 1 trade agreement with China was announced. The stock and commodity markets traded sharply higher on this news initially, but at this hour, stock futures are lower,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The winter storm in the western Corn Belt will take the national corn yield down by 1 to 2 bushels per acre and soybeans lower by ½ to 1 bushel per acre. This reduction in the crop size may not be reflected until the final crop production report in January.”

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