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Soybeans, Corn Markets Close Mostly Higher, Friday

Investors put more weight on large supplies vs. winter storms.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets end mostly higher.

At the close, the May futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.61. July futures ended ¾¢ higher at $3.69 1/2.
 
May soybean futures closed unchanged at $8.95¼. July soybean futures finished unchanged at $9.08¼.

May wheat futures closed 4¢ higher at $4.64½.

May soymeal futures closed $0.70 per short ton higher at $307.90. May soy oil futures are 0.03¢ lower at 28.95¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.50 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 243 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that the grains are mixed today, with continued liquidation in the corn market.

“This price direction follows a bearish USDA Crop Report earlier in the week, which showed larger stocks. Plus, most of the grain price is in oversold territory and losing premium going into spring. Weather will be the dominant news item next week.”

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors have ignored the winter storm.

“Well, after a two-day blizzard and 20-plus inches of snow, hopefully today we can start digging out here in South Dakota. However, U.S. grain markets were not fazed by the major winter storm hitting the upper Midwest. Instead, the market looked focused on the poor weekly export sales and the reality that the U.S. carryout number on all three grains could be increasing,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “We are getting more and more reports out of the U.S. and China trade talks that they are getting very close to agreeing on a deal. Could we be getting an announcement of a summit between President Trump and President Xi?”

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, investors are not impressed with the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report, as markets drop.

At the close, the May futures dropped 1¼¢ lower at $3.60. July futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.68¾.
 
May soybean futures ended 6¾¢ lower at $8.95¼. July soybean futures closed 6¼¢ lower at $9.08¾.

May wheat futures closed 2½¢ higher at $4.60¼.

May soymeal futures closed $2.90 a short ton lower at $307.20. May soy oil futures settled 0.09¢ lower at 28.98¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.09 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 81 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors remain unconvinced of a U.S.-China trade deal.

“We got some follow-through buying after the negative USDA crop report on Tuesday, but we managed to shrug off that negative news. Trade rumors out of China were also supportive to the grains. Talks have suggested that China could be buying some huge amounts of grains from the U.S. However, we have heard this before. The market is reluctant to build that news up too much. Lastly, wet and cold weather forecast looks to hold its grip on much of the U.S., keeping the grain prices supported,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

On Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report contains weak soybean, corn figures.

  • Corn = 548,000 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 700,000 and 1.200,000 mmt.
  • Soybeans = 280,400 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 450,000 mt. and 1.2 mmt.
  • Wheat = 474,400 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 400,000 and 850,000 mt.
  • Soybean meal = 152,100 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000 and 200,000 mt.

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Wednesday’s Grain Trade Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets have moved up, reflecting the impact the expected snowstorm could have on delaying U.S. planting.

At the close, the May futures finished 1¾¢ higher at $3.61¾. July futures finished 2¼¢ higher at $3.70¾.
 
May soybean futures closed 3¼¢ higher at $9.02. July soybean futures settled 3¼¢ higher at $9.15.

May wheat futures ended 1¼¢ lower at $4.58.

May soymeal futures settled $1.00 short ton higher at $310.10. May soy oil futures closed 0.03¢ higher at 29.07¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.58 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points lower.

On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 133,759 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be eyeing the April blizzard.

“How will this impending winter storm impact spring planting and crop rotation for the areas affected? For now, traders are watching to see if the unfavorable forecasts play out as the models suggest,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, investors will have one eye on the USDA/WASDE Reports and one eye on Midwest weather forecasts, one analyst says.

In early trading, the May futures are 2½¢ lower at $3.57. July futures are 2½¢ lower at $3.66½.
 
May soybean futures are 1¢ lower at $8.97¾. July soybean futures are 1¢ lower at $9.10¾.

May wheat futures are 8¾¢ lower at $4.56¼.

May soymeal futures are $0.40 per short ton lower at $308.80. May soy oil futures are 0.04¢ lower at 28.84¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.28 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 211 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be eyeing today’s USDA data update.

“The USDA supply/demand report today may be negative for corn prices, but by the close we will be watching the late-week weather forecast to see how much snow we will get in the northern Corn Belt,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, “Will the USDA increase the projected corn ending stocks to over the 2-billion-bushel benchmark? That is likely to be short-term bearish for corn futures.

“Also, will the forecasts stick for 10 to 20 inches of snow in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa on Wednesday night and into the afternoon on Thursday? If this is still in the noon weather model updates, then that will be bullish for corn futures by late this week.”

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the ag markets close lower.

At the close, the May futures finished 2½¢ lower at $3.60. July futures ended 2½¢ lower at $3.68½.
 
May soybean futures closed ¼¢ lower at $8.98¾. July soybean futures settled ¼¢ lower at $9.11¾.

May wheat futures finished 2½¢ lower at $4.65¼.

May soymeal futures ended $1.20 per short ton higher at $309.20. May soy oil futures are 0.27¢ lower at 28.88¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.33 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 113 points lower.

Britt O’Connell, cash adviser for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that investors are eyeing tomorrow’s USDA/WASDE report and positioning ahead of that report.  

“Funds established a new record short on Friday. That could be our saving grace, if they decide to exit quickly and go long,” O’Connell says.

He adds, “Quarterly stocks were higher on corn last week and in my examination I’m thinking we either underestimated the 2018 corn crop, overestimated feed usage, or there was a combination thereof. This could be reflected in tomorrow’s report, we shall see. If that is the case, we will need some of these weather concerns to materialize,” O’Connell says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors still know that supplies are large.

“If the crude oil market continues to move higher, then ethanol and corn prices will follow,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, “I am watching the USDA Crop Conditions report and what it shows in the planting rate for corn. By one week from now, U.S. farmers should report 8% of the corn crop being planted. By April 22, over 25% should be planted. With the weather forecast indicating snow for most of the central and eastern Corn Belt late this week, corn planting is likely to fall behind the five-year average over the next several weeks.”

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