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More Rain Events Could Push Corn Even Higher Next Week

First look at new-crop carryouts comes next week.

Early yesterday, corn started with a setback after not seeing funds arrive.

This was an early sign that this market was looking for a technical setback. Obviously, they did show up late in the day, causing a strong close yesterday. Yet, today there was no sign of fund buying at all, allowing for a small technical setback today. Today’s six- to 10-day outlook added to the coverage of the next rain system expected for next week.

Given that it is a Friday, the added rain didn’t offer much influence. However, if that next large rain system is still in the forecast Monday, we could see support again to start the week. Planting pace will also be watched closely to see if it falls further behind the five-year average. Monday’s planting pace report was 10% behind the five-year average and next week’s five-year average is at 44%.

Lastly, next week will also turn focus toward the USDA report offering our first look at new-crop carryout. Most will look at that news to be supportive, which means corn could find some prebuying support leading into Thursday. Initially, focus will be on weather forecasts and planting pace to start the week, so let’s see what those offer and get ready for the next USDA report.

Bulls

More rain was added to the six- to 10-day outlook, and if that is still there on Monday, it could continue support.

Planting pace could fall further behind the five-year average on Monday adding to support.

There could be light support leading into Thursday’s report expecting a low starting new-crop carryout.

Bears

If funds remain on the sidelines and the forecast is clear, that could be enough to offset a slow planting pace number Monday.

Even a 38% retracement on the recent rally suggests a mild pullback in July to 399½.

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Rich Nelson
Allendale Inc.
815-578-6161
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