Soybean Market Rises, Recovers Last Week’s Losses

Corn, wheat markets move slightly higher Friday.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets look to the soybean complex for strength for the third session in a row.

At the close, the March corn futures ended unchanged at $3.76 1/4. May corn futures settled unchanged at $3.82 1/2.
 
Jan. soybean futures finished 5 1/4¢ higher at $8.89 3/4. March soybean futures closed 5¢ higher at $9.03 3/4.

March wheat futures closed 3/4¢ higher at $5.24.

January soymeal futures finished $2.20 per short ton lower at $299.30. January soy oil futures closed 0.72 cents higher at 31.22¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.79 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 343 points higher.

On Friday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 245,872 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that if the headlines of a U.S., China trade deal really happen before the end of 2019, farming in 2020 will look a lot different.
 
“The bounce in soybeans is overdue. However, to truly turn the tide, we need to see the weekly chart stop making lower lows and lower highs. This week makes six of the last seven with that bearish pattern,” Kluis told customers in daily note.

Kluis added, “It would be nice to credit the trade talk headlines for the bounce, but that story has been played too many times. The market was deeply oversold (according to momentum indicators), and prices got within 2¢ of the major September low. We will have to see if the bulls are able to keep the rally going into next week.”

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, demand is driving the CME Group’s soybean market higher.

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1 3/4¢ lower at $3.76 1/4. May corn futures settled 2¢ lower at $3.82 1/2.
 
Jan. soybean futures closed 6 1/4¢ higher at $8.84 3/4. March soybean futures closed 6 1/2¢ higher at $8.98 3/4.

March wheat futures closed 3 1/2¢ higher at $5.23 3/4.

January soymeal futures ended $4.80 per short ton higher at $301.50. January soy oil futures settled 0.03 cents higher at 30.50¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.15 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points higher.

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the grain trade lack of much news today.

“Corn continues to trade sideways with lack of direction.  It appears that the technical sell off we were having in soybeans is over and support has held.  That market was extremely oversold with no particular reason.  We could blame it on the constant deal, no deal with China.  Maybe that has something to do with it, funds tired of waiting on the long side,” O’Connell says. 

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 245,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 120,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 125,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

The marketing year for soybean oil began October 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says grain prices continue to be a mixed bag.
 
“We are seeing a lot of spreading between corn and soybeans lately. Soybeans got a little boost, as some reports state they are running low on pork supplies and soybeans. This sounds like something we have heard before. Expect the markets to stabilize and look for some friendly information to try and push us higher,” Kluis told customers in daily note.

Kluis added, “The recent uptick in export activity in both corn and soybeans is due to South America running low on supplies. Now the only place to get corn or soybeans is the U.S.”

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows modest demand figures. Here are the sales amounts:

  • Corn: 548,500 metric tons (mt) vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000 and 950,000 mt
  • Soybeans: 683,800 mt vs. trade’s expectations of 600,000 and 1.1 mmt
  • Wheat: 228,100 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000 and 700,000 mt
  • Soybean meal: 181,100 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of 100,000 and 250,000 mt

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets lean on the soybean trade to go higher.

At the close, March corn futures closed 2¾¢ lower at $3.78¼; May corn futures ended 2¾¢ lower at $3.84½.
 
January soybean futures settled 7¢ higher at $8.78; March soybean futures closed 7¢ higher at $8.92¼.

March wheat futures ended 2½¢ higher at $5.27½.

January soymeal futures finished $2.00 per short ton higher at $296.70. January soy oil futures closed 0.28¢ higher at 30.47¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.36 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 204 points higher.

On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to Morocco during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybean oil began October 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says trade war news could be baked into the market.
 
“Negative comments on the trade war are once again crowding the daily headlines. With corn and soybean prices near the lower end of multimonth trading ranges, traders may have already built a large portion of this bearish news into prices,” Kluis told customers in daily note.

Kluis added, “Corn and soybean prices ended Tuesday quietly mixed. This was notable since CBOT wheat was a dime lower. Momentum indicators are trying to turn higher on the daily charts, which is a good sign. The bulls should quickly gain followers if we can get a close over the prior two-day high soon. One story that traders will continue to follow is year-to-date cumulative corn exports out of Brazil. Although the export pace has slowed over the past month, Brazil has exported more than double compared with last year.”

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s wheat market lost a lot of ground.

At the close, March corn futures finished ¾¢ lower at $3.81¼; May corn futures closed ¾¢ higher at $3.87.
 
January soybean futures closed ½¢ higher at $8.71; March soybean futures ended ¼¢ higher at $8.85¼.

March wheat futures closed 10¢ lower at $5.25½.

January soy meal futures settled $1.20 per short ton higher at $294.70. January soy oil futures closed 0.03¢ higher at 30.19¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 8¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 366 points lower.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says the market is holding despite President Trump’s tweets about upsetting trade with France and China.

“The president’s tweet Tuesday stated that China might have to wait until after the election. He seems to think it will work better for him and that the farm community will stand for it. I am not so sure on the latter front as most of the farmers I talk to are getting pretty frustrated at the constant moving of the goal posts,” Scoville says. 

He added, “Plus, there is still a lot of crops out in the field, mostly corn but also soybeans, and that is supporting the market amid tight farm holding patterns. Everyone expects a rally once a deal with the Chinese gets done and lets hope they are right. This trade war has gone on so long and gotten so tedious that I am not so sure anymore.”

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says investors will have to digest a lot of crops remaining in the field.
 
“The USDA Crop Progress Report yesterday showed 9.3 million acres of corn still out in the field. In North Dakota, corn harvest advanced just 6 percentage points to 36% harvested last week; not much will get done this week. Nationwide, that suggests as much as 1.5 billion bushels of corn will not be harvested until late winter or the spring of 2020,” Kluis told customers in daily note.

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the first trading session of December finds the CME Group’s soybean market reverse lower after starting higher.

At the close, March corn futures settled ¾¢ higher at $3.82; May corn futures ended ¾¢ higher at $3.86¼.
 
January soybean futures finished 6½¢ lower at $8.70¾; March soybean futures closed 6¢ lower at $8.85¼.

March wheat futures ended 6¼¢ lower at $5.35½.

January soy meal futures closed 40¢ per short ton higher at $293.50. January soy oil futures finished 0.42¢ lower at 30.16¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 80¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 176 points lower.

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