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Soybeans Reverse Higher Friday

USDA Ag Outlook estimates have little impact on prices.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s soybean market started lower, finished higher.

On Friday, the USDA released its latest farm price projections at its annual Ag Outlook Forum.

In a nutshell, investors are dealing with the USDA estimating large acreage and supplies for 2018.

At the close, the March corn futures finished ½¢ lower at $3.66. May futures closed ¼¢ lower at $3.74.

March soybean futures ended 4¼¢ higher at $10.36.  May soybean futures finished 4¼¢ higher at $10.47.

March wheat futures ended even at $4.64¼.

May soy meal futures settled $1.30 per short ton lower at $378.30. January soy oil futures closed 0.31¢ higher at 32.56¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.79 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 183 points higher.

 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s ag markets watched the air come out of the sails of the soybean market, as investors believe Argentina's crop-weather problems are built into the market and USDA released big U.S. soybean acreage.

At its annual Ag Outlook Forum Thursday, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2018 corn and soybean acreage at 90 million each.

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.66; May futures finished ¾¢ higher at $3.74.

March soybean futures ended 2¼¢ lower at $10.32; May soybean futures finished 2¼¢ lower at $10.43.

May wheat futures settled 4¾¢ higher at $4.64¼.

May soy meal futures ended $1.40 per short ton lower at $379.60. January soy oil futures close 0.03¢ lower at 32.25¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.04 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 293 points higher.

Cory Bratland, Kluis Commodities broker, says the markets need more bullish news.

“With China coming off of its Lunar New Year holiday, I expect the weekly export sales this week to be sluggish. The Weekly Export Sales Report is delayed to Friday, due to the Presidents’ holiday. However, we could see some daily announcements that are friendly,” Bratland says.

 

 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Reviw

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets remain mostly higher.

At the close, the March corn futures finished ¼¢ higher at $3.65¾; May futures closed ¼¢ higher at $3.74.

March soybean futures finished 7¾¢ higher at $10.34¼; May soybean futures finished 8¢ higher at $10.45½.

March wheat futures closed 3¢ lower at $4.59½.

May soy meal futures settled $1.70 per short ton higher at $381. January soy oil futures finished 0.24¢ higher at 32.28¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 8¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 270 points higher.

Alan Brugler, president of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says the soybean rally is weather-driven.

“The bean rally is meal-driven, with both smaller Argentine soy production and the truckers strike the interrupted crush and exports for a week or so,” Brugler says. 

He adds, “Meal will top out when the U.S. and Brazil have ramped up enough production/exports to fill in the void from Argentina.”  Brugler says that the CME Group’s crush margins have been phenomenal. 

“We also have to remember that spec funds were still short beans two weeks ago. They are not anywhere near a max long yet. As long as the story is good, they can add to their long positions,” Brugler says.

He adds, “The markets are getting a lift from meal. Current meal/corn ratio is about 2.75:1. The long-term average is 2.1, so meal is on the expensive side, although nowhere near record.”

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s soybean market closed higher but backed off its daily highs.

Following the closed markets yesterday, due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, the soybean complex is finding pent-up demand from investors.

At the close, the March corn futures settled 2¢ lower at $3.65½; May futures finished 1¼¢ lower at $3.73¾.

March soybean futures ended 5¢ higher at $10.26½; May soybean futures closed 5¢ higher at $10.37½.

March wheat futures ended 8½¢ lower at $4.49½.

May soy meal futures settled $3.30 per short ton higher at $379.30. January soy oil futures closed 0.31¢ higher at 32.04¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 17¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 160 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says the soybean complex is well supported by global weather.

“The soybean rally is based on Argentina’s crop weather. Some rains in a few provinces over the weekend, but hot and dry again this week. Wheat is down on U.S. Plains weather and weak world prices. Corn market is finally riding the demand train,” Scoville says.

 

 

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