Grain Markets Move Slightly Higher, Ahead of USDA
DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group's farm markets trade slightly higher, ahead of the USDA reports at 11:00am CT.
At the open, the Sep. corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.57. Dec. futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $3.86.
Aug. soybean futures are unchanged at $8.66. Nov. soybean futures are 1/2¢ lower at $8.83.
Sep. wheat futures are 7 3/4¢ higher at $4.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.22 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 220 points higher.
Thursday's Grain Market Review
On Thursday, the CME Group's farm markets trade lower.
At the close, the July corn futures finished 7 1/2¢ lower at $3.45. December futures ended 7 1/4¢ lower at $3.66.
July soybean futures closed 6 1/4¢ lower at $8.61. November soybean futures ended 5 1/2¢ lower at $8.83.
Sep. wheat futures closed 5¢ lower at $4.83 1/2.
Aug. soy meal futures settled $1.60 per short ton lower at $330.70. Aug. soy oil futures finished unchanged at 29.13¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.49 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 138 points higher.
On Thursday, the USDA Weekly Export Sales report shows strong sales for corn, soybeans and wheat.
- Wheat= 563,700 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000-500,000 mt.
- Corn= 1.486 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 750,000-1,400,000 mt.
- Soybeans= 1.00 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 450,000-1,000,000 mt.
Wednesday's Grain Market Review
On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets pare gains.
At the close, the July corn futures settled unchanged at $3.52. December futures closed unchanged at $3.73.
July soybean futures finished ¼¢ higher at $8.67. November soybean futures closed 1½¢ higher at $8.89.
September wheat futures ended 5½¢ higher at $4.88½.
August soy meal futures closed $0.50 per short ton lower at $332.30. August soy oil futures closed 0.07¢ higher at 29.01¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.96 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points lower.
Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities analyst, says that today’s trading action is showing some support.
“Grains are finding mild support with position trading, ahead of Friday’s all important stocks and acres report. Nonthreatening weather has been limiting rallies, but risk premium may be needed on any uncertainties,” Roose says.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says the market bears remain in control of the grain markets.
“The heart of the Corn Belt has seen multiple rain events per week through June. In some areas, there has been too much moisture. If too much rain is going to cause yield problems, then traders will quantify the problem when combines start rolling this fall,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.
He adds, “Unless we get a major trade deal with China, the USDA Acreage Report on Friday has center stage.”
Tuesday’s Grain Markets Review
On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets probably seem mild compared with recent volatility, as they trade slightly above or below zero.
All eyes remain on the impacts of the heavy rain that falls in the Midwest this week, followed by high heat this weekend. Plus, the USDA data on Friday is highly anticipated.
At the close, July corn futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.52½; December futures finished 1¾¢ higher at $3.73¼.
July soybean futures ended 7¼¢ lower at $8.67¼; November soybean futures ended 8¢ lower at $8.87½.
July wheat futures settled 7½¢ lower at $4.83.
July soy meal futures closed 80¢ per short ton higher at $333.70. July soy oil futures finished unchanged at 28.94¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.29 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 127 points higher.
Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management Group, says the major drivers have, to some degree, become old news.
“This Friday’s Acreage Report/end of month/end of quarter play is bringing some position squaring and profittaking to the table. However, midday trade still holds a softer tone,” North says.
Monday’s Grain Market Review
On Monday, the CME Group’s farm futures take a deep dive.
More trade tariff talk over the weekend from the Trump administration has the stock market down triple digits. Plus, a sell-off mentality has hit the ag commodities markets.
At the close, the July corn futures settled 6¾¢ lower at $3.50½; December futures ended 6½¢ lower at $3.71½.
July soybean futures finished 20¢ lower at $8.74½; November soybean futures closed 20¾¢ lower at $8.95.
July wheat futures finished 13¾¢ lower at $4.90½.
July soy meal futures closed $6.20 per short ton lower at $332.90. July soy oil futures closed 2.70¢ lower at 28.94¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 36¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 434 points lower.
Jack Scoville,The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says the price break is partly about weather and partly tariff hangover.
“President Trump is still banging on the Chinese, and Xi said today that he will hit back, so even though there are talks going on to resolve, the public view is still very confrontational,” Scoville says.
He adds, “Some need rain in some areas, some don’t need it but did or will get it anyway. So, ideas are that crop ratings will remain high in the reports tonight.”
Scoville says his customers are very quiet today after being active last week.
“I think most have or are moving to the sidelines until the market gives some type of comfort today. People think it is too cheap to sell now. That does not mean it won’t work lower, but given the freefall over the last few weeks, it’s hard to be short and no real reason showing to buy.”
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says investors are watching crop weather and this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress Report for price direction.
“The USDA Crop Conditions Report today should show ratings for corn that are about unchanged from last week and soybeans down 1% to 2%. Too much water in the northern Corn Belt is doing damage to the soybean crop,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.