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Soybeans Close Double-Digits Higher Friday

Russian concerns giving futures a boost.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the buyers are checking in on the last trading day of the month.

At the close, the December corn futures finished 8½¢ higher at $3.65. March futures ended 8¢ higher at $3.77¼.

November soybean futures closed 12¢ higher at $8.43. January soybean futures closed 11¾¢ higher at $8.56¾.

December wheat futures ended 10½¢ higher at $5.45½.

December soymeal futures closed $3.70 per short ton higher at $307.20. December soy oil futures closed .10¢ higher at 28.77¢.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.48 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 72 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that higher is the word! 

“Going into a holiday weekend with a short market and some sales announcements today helped demand ideas, I guess. Deliveries are out of the way, too, so we got less pressure on the market,” Scoville says. 

Scoville adds, “One farmer sent me some pics of a Cargill elevator in Iowa with no one delivering grain, so I am thinking what had to move is probably moved.” 

That selling pressure could be enough to let this thing move a bit higher next week, he says. 

“Looks like we are getting that started today. The trade will start to talk of a potential early harvest low if this thing develops legs,” Scoville says.

On Friday, the USDA reported fresh corn and soybean sales.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

  • Export sales of 273,800 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 250,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

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Thursday’s Market Review

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets are not impressed with the weekly export sales numbers, trading mixed.

At the close, the September corn futures finished ¼¢ lower at $3.41. December futures ended steady at $3.56.

Nov soybean futures settled 4½¢ lower at $8.31½. January soybean futures closed 4¼¢ lower at $8.45.

December wheat futures ended 6¾¢ lower at $5.35.

December soymeal futures closed $1.70 per short ton lower at $303.50. December soy oil futures closed 0.25¢ higher at 28.67.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.72 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 187 points lower.

Pete Meyer, SPGlobal grain analyst, says that the trade faces positioning, ahead of the marketing year ending.

“The last week of the marketing year is always one when we see bin sweeping and Deferred Pricing contracts adding pressure to the corn price. In beans, recent rains have helped the theory that “big crops get bigger,” Meyer says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the ag markets face rally pressure.

"Wednesday was a little bit of a disappointment of a day for US grain prices. Meanwhile, rumors of Russia cutting back on exports once they reach a certain amount has the wheat market surging higher. Traders are still concerned that the US corn and soybean crops could still be getting larger. That is limiting the rallies in the row crops," Kluis says.

Separate from the weekly export sales report, USDA announced a fresh corn sale Thursday.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 100,611 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

On Thursday, the USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report. Wheat and soybean sales fell within trade expectations while corn fell at the bottom of expectations.

  • Wheat= 414,800 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000-500,000 mt.
  • Corn=  700,400 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 700,000-1,250,000 mt.
  • Soybeans= 702,600 mt. mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between  500,000-1,250,000 mt.
  • Soybean meal=   521,500 mt. mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000-750,000 metric tons.

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Wednesday's Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade higher.

At midsession, the September corn futures are ¾¢ higher at $3.41. December futures are ¾¢ higher at $3.56.

November soybean futures are 7¾¢ higher at $8.41. January soybean futures are 7½¢ higher at $8.54.

December wheat futures are 18¢ higher at $5.41. December soy meal futures are $2.20 per short ton higher at $306.90. December soy oil futures are 0.13¢ lower at 28.45¢.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.70 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 89 points higher.

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets digest a heavy news day from yesterday and watch new crop-weather outlooks.

At the close, the September corn futures closed 5¾¢ lower at $3.41. December futures ended 5¼¢ lower at $3.56¼.

November soybean futures closed 15¢ lower at $8.33. January soybean futures settled 15¼¢ lower at $8.46½.

December wheat futures closed ¾¢ higher at $5.23¼.

December soy meal futures finished $5.90 per short ton lower at $304.70. December soy oil futures closed 0.18¢ lower at 28.58.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.16 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that investors normally have to look long and hard for market-friendly news in August.

“Bullish news is a rare item this time of year, with harvest approaching and crops maturing. The grain markets are usually on the defense,” Roose says.

Roose adds, “Yield estimates continue to be impressive for both corn and soybeans. Lack of weather issues in the U.S and fear of less meal demand has given the grains resistance.”

On Tuesday, the USDA announced fresh soybean sales.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 198,862 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 146,781 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year, and 52,081 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybean cake and meal began October 1.

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s ag markets finish lower, trimming losses following an announcement that the U.S. and Mexico have settled a trade dispute.

At the close, the September corn futures finished 1¾¢ lower at $3.46¾. December futures finished 1¼¢ lower at $3.61½.

November soybean futures settled 7¢ lower at $8.48½. January soybean futures closed 6¾¢ lower at $8.61¾.

December wheat futures closed 14¢ lower at $5.22½.

December soy meal futures finished $5.70 per short ton lower at $310.60. December soy oil futures closed 0.27¢ higher at 28.76. In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.13 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 273 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that investors have a lot of news to digest.

“The big selling, especially in the bean market, is the result of the recent crop tour results, while the buying seen today is primarily due to the Mexican trade agreement that will hopefully allow for unfettered corn, wheat, and rice sales to Mexico,” Scoville says. 

He added, “The tour showed lots and lots of beans and was the big bearish deal of the report. We think corn yields can drop more as it is maturing fast.  Last year the corn took forever to shut down and that added bushels. Not happening this year. We are looking for early lows this year, due to the maturity and due to lately that is what has been happening. Maybe the lows come in the next week or two.”

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the news remains bearish for ag markets.

“Will any more cases of African swine flu in China be reported in the Chinese media this week? This would put additional pressure on the corn and soybean markets,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Also, big yield forecasts from last week’s crop tour, little progress from last week’s midlevel talks on trade tariffs between the U.S. and China not producing much progress, and beneficial rains for Midwestern crops over the weekend all pressure prices.

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