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Wheat Prices Close Double-Digits Higher Friday

The U.S. dollar is stronger.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group's farm markets mostly strengthen.

At the close, the December corn futures ended 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.51 3/4. March futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.63 3/4.

Nov soybean futures ended 2 3/4¢ lower at $8.30 1/2.  Jan. soybean futures closed 2 3/4¢ lower at $8.44 1/4.

Dec. wheat futures finished 14 1/2¢ higher at $5.11 1/2.

Dec. soymeal futures closed $6.20 per short ton lower at $308.70.

Dec. soy oil futures finished $0.03 higher at 27.76.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.36 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 19 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are looking for new news to trade.

“As the market searches for some fresh input to trade on, look for a sideways pattern to develop. Rallies will be quickly sold as we come into harvest,” Kluis stated to customers in a daily note.

He added, “"Big crops get bigger," and that was true again this USDA report. There are indications the October USDA report could see the total corn and soybean crop get even bigger.”

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Thursday's Grain Market Review

The CME Group’s soybean futures lose traction Thursday.

At the close, the December corn futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.50. March futures ended 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.62 3/4.

Nov soybean futures closed 6 3/4¢ lower at $8.33 1/4.  Jan. soybean futures closed 6 1/2¢ lower at $8.47.

Dec. wheat futures ended 9 3/4¢ lower at $4.97.

Dec. soymeal futures closed $3.50 per short ton lower at $314.90. Dec. soy oil futures ended 0.20¢ lower at 27.79.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.58 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 135 points higher.

On Thursday, the USDA announced fresh corn and soybean sales. Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

  • Export sales of 142,876 metric tons of corn for delivery to Costa Rica during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 108,010 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 40,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year and 80,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

Also, the USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday. Corn sales came in at the bottom of expectations, soybeans within and wheat within expectations.

  • Corn = 774,200 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 750,000 and 1,250,000 metric tons. Plus, the corn sales for the 2017/18 marketing year that ended September 1 totaled 57.4 mmt., up 4% from the previous marketing year.
  • Soybeans = 693,500 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000 and 1,000,000 mt. Plus, the soybean sales for the 2017/18 marketing year that ended August 31 totaled 56.3 mmt., down 3% from the previous marketing year.
  • Wheat = 387,600 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000 and 500,000 mt.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors says that investors are still digesting yesterday’s USDA report that estimated a record-large U.S. corn crop and a slightly higher than expected soybean crop.

“On Wednesday, the USDA delivered a bombshell report. From here on, the market will focus on actual yield reports as they come out of the fields. Many are skeptical that the U.S. corn yield will be as high as the USDA projected,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade lower.

In early trading, the December corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.64. March futures are 1½¢ lower at $3.77.

Nov soybean futures are 8¼¢ lower at $8.23. Jan. soybean futures are 8½¢ lower at $8.37.

December wheat futures are 5¢ higher at $5.23¾.

December soymeal futures are $3.00 per short ton lower at $313.20. December soy oil futures 0.28¢ lower at 27.80¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.94 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says a bearish report today has the potential to send prices to new lows.

“Renewed selling arose in soybeans on Tuesday as traders prepared for the USDA numbers. Soybean carryout is expected to be a record. How big of a record is the question. Corn carryout is expected to increase as well. U.S. wheat numbers are unlikely to change, however, the world numbers are what the traders are anxiously awaiting for. The spotlight for today’s report is on soybeans,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Even before the release of the report, the November futures contract hit a new low Wednesday.

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets finished lower.

At the close, the December corn futures finished ½¢ lower at $3.66¾. March futures ended ¾¢ lower at $3.78½.

November soybean futures finished 13½¢ lower at $8.31¾. January soybean futures finished 13½¢ lower at $8.45½.

December wheat futures finished 9½¢ lower at $5.18¾.

December soymeal futures closed $2.40 per short ton lower at $316.20. December soy oil futures finished 0.28¢ lower at 28.08¢ a pound.  

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.90 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 140 points higher.

Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management Group, says that today’s market is a reflection of the trade’s nervousness ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.  

“Despite a downgrade to Australian wheat production, wheat prices fell across all three markets.  Soybeans shrugged off talk of frost damage to Chinese soybeans to fall even more dramatically, as thoughts of large yields caused selling to hasten.” 

North adds, “Additionally, CONAB raised projections for Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean production. Corn held on to the fact that its balance sheet is still much lighter than last year. While only slightly lower, it too clings to tomorrow’s numbers.”

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the wheat market is seeing profit-taking, following yesterday’s gains.

“The big news yesterday for the wheat bulls was the announcement that Australia will cut 2018/2019 wheat output by nearly 13%. The WASDE report on Wednesday will help shed further light on where the world wheat supply stands,” Kluis stated to customers in a daily note.

He adds, “The USDA crop progress report was delayed on Monday. It will be released today at 1:00 p.m. I do not think we will see much of a market reaction from this report. Everyone is waiting for Wednesday’s report.”

On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

  • Export sales of 138,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
  • Cancellations of export sales of 192,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm futures prices trade mostly higher.

USDA delays the Crop Progress Report, Monday.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is delaying today’s Crop Progress Report, due to technical issues until tomorrow, September 11, at 12 p.m. ET.

At the close, the December corn futures ¼¢ higher at $3.67¼. March futures finished even at $3.79¼.
 
November soybean futures settled 1¼¢ higher at $8.45¼. January soybean futures closed 1¾¢ higher at $8.59.
 
December wheat futures ended 17¢ higher at $5.28¼.
 
December soymeal futures closed $1.60 per short ton higher at $318.60. December soy oil futures closed 0.09¢ higher at 28.36¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.16 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that investors are eyeing this week’s USDA data to be released Wednesday.

“Grains are finding minor support today with positioning squaring ahead of Wednesday’s USDA crop report, slow producer selling, and optimism that export news will limit selling as early yield reports are being reported as disappointing,” Roose says.

Also, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

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