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Down the Week’s Stretch, Wheat Finishes 20¢ Higher

Corn added 7¢.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets leaned on the wheat market for week-ending strength.

At the close, the July corn futures settled 7¼¢ higher at $4.02. December futures ended 7½¢ higher at $4.20¾.

July soybean futures finished 3½¢ higher at $9.98½. November soybean futures closed 4¢ higher at $10.08¼.

July wheat futures closed 20¾¢ higher at $5.18¼.

July soy meal futures finished $1.20 per short ton higher at $376.30. July soy oil futures closed 0.04¢ higher at 30.98¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.16 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 16 points higher.

Pete Meyer, SPGlobal grain analyst, says that a number of factors are being digested by investors.

“Corn should run into quite a bit of producer selling above $4.25 per bushel, basis the December contract, and rightfully so,” Meyer says. “Regarding the soybean market, I expect it to remain vulnerable price-wise with the highs being safe barring a weather catastrophe this summer.”

The crops that have been planted look fine, he says.

“But it”s that area in northern Iowa/southern Minnesota that has the attention of the production bulls.  Come June 1, whatever has not been planted with corn in that area stands a good chance of going into beans, raising the Acreage Report number substantially as it pertains to soybean acreage,” Meyer says.  

On Friday, the USDA announced a large cancellation of U.S. soybean sales that an unknown buyer had already purchased.

  • Cancellations of export sales of 949,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 829,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year and 120,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
  • Export sales of 168,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 56,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year and 112,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

 

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets weaken.

At the close, the July corn futures finished 4¢ lower at $3.95¼. December futures closed 4¢ lower at $4.13.

July soybean futures finished 4¾¢ lower at $9.95. November soybean futures ended 4¾¢ lower at $10.04¼.

July wheat futures finished 3¼¢ higher at $4.97½.

July soy meal futures finished $1.50 per short ton lower at $375.10. July soy oil futures closed 0.35 higher at 30.94¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.01 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 62 points lower.

Cory Bratland, Kluis Commodity Advisors’ chief grain strategist, says that the grains are searching for some new fresh news to trade on whether bullish or bearish, thus the drifting action.

“Charts don’t look real good for corn and soybeans, and the bear spreads are working. So, rallies will be short-lived,” Bratland says.

Corn and soybean planting look to push along nicely this week and we should stay at least on the five-year planting pace into next week, he says.

“Yes, there are a few problem areas such as southern Minnesota and northern Iowa, but we have problem areas somewhere every year and this year it just happens to be their turn,” he says.

Soybean prices are struggling, as demand seems to be shifting to South America and Russia lately, as China continues to buy soybeans – just not as many from the U.S., he says.

“Also, with some wet conditions and a little later than normal planting in the Dakotas and the prevent-plant deadline quickly approaching, we could see a few more soybean acres coming from spring wheat and maybe a few corn acres,” Bratland says.

Corn is finding some support with the fact that we do need 88 million corn acres and a trend line yield of 174 bushels per acre, he says.

“Plus, we will still see U.S. carryout stocks get lowered, so we should keep some risk premium in the corn market until we get close to pollination,” he says.

Wheat is gaining support over dryness in North Dakota, along with the Canadian prairies.

“Plus, the winter wheat crop in the southern Plains is still in question. Stronger crude oil, too, is also supportive to all grains. Kind of crazy we have the U.S. dollar and crude oil rallying at the same time,” he says.

USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday showing only soymeal sales beating expectations.

  • Corn = 1.14 million metric tons vs. the avg. trade estimate between 700,000 and 1,200,000 mt.
  • Soybeans = 506,600 mt. vs. the avg. trade estimate between 400,000 and 700,000 mt.
  • Wheat = 194,800 mt. vs. the avg. trade estimate between 300,000 and 500,000 mt.
  • Soybean meal = 421,700 mt. vs. the avg. trade estimate between 125,000 and 250,000 mt.

Separately, the USDA announced a fresh sale of soybeans Thursday.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

 

 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade weaker.

At midsession, the July corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.99. December futures 2¢ higher at $4.17.

July soybean futures are 16½¢ lower at $10.02. November soybean futures are 13¢ lower at $10.11.

July wheat futures are unchanged at $4.93.

July soy meal futures are $5.60 per short ton lower at $376.70. July soy oil futures are 0.36¢ lower at 30.76¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.29 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 65 points higher.

Soybeans are the downside leader today, says Jack Scoville of the PRICE Futures Group, citing trade jitters with China and cheaper soybeans from Brazil. “I’m reading in some places that the hog market has collapsed in China and so has meal demand. As a result, there is much less Chinese interest in soybeans,” he says.  

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm futures traded mostly lower throughout most of the session, only to finish higher.

At the close, July corn futures finished 5¾¢ higher at $4.02; December futures closed 5¢ higher at $4.19.

July soybean futures finished 1¢ higher at $10.18;  November soybean futures finished 1¢ higher at $10.18.

July wheat futures closed 2¼¢ higher at $4.93.

July soy meal futures settled $5.30 per short ton lower at $382.30. July soy oil futures finished 0.13¢ lower at 31.12¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 21¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 183 points lower.

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s soybean market finished double digits higher.

At the close, July corn futures finished steady at $3.96; December futures ended ¼¢ lower at $4.14.

July soybean futures settled 14½¢ higher at $10.17¾; November soybean futures finished 9¢ higher at $10.23.

July wheat futures closed 7½¢ lower at $4.91.

July soy meal futures finished $9 per short ton higher at $387.60. July soy oil futures finished 0.06¢ lower at 31.25¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 24¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 81 points higher.

Mike North, president Commodity Risk Management Group, says the soybean rally is largely a function of traders feeling relief from progress in NAFTA talks and the fact that Trump softened his stance on the Chinese technology company, ZTE. 

“His move toward a compromise has been a play toward reduced Chinese tariffs on ag products – something soybeans have been heavily sensitive to in recent months. This comes as the Chinese prepare a trip to the U.S. this week to continue these negotiations,” North says.

 

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