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Friday’s Farm Markets Finish Mostly Higher

The delayed Export Sales Report is not favoring prices.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report is not strong enough to pull up the grain markets.

At the close, the December corn futures finished 2¾¢ lower at $3.63¾. March futures ended 2½¢ lower at $3.75¾.
 
January soybean futures finished 3½¢ higher at $8.92¼. March soybean futures are 3½¢ higher at $9.05¾.
 
December wheat futures finished ½¢ higher at $5.15¼.

December soymeal futures closed 5.50¢ per short ton higher at $310.90. December soy oil futures settled 0.32¢ lower at 27.37¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.35 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 134 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that demand is underpinning the soybean market.

"Soybeans continue to find support as the trade is feeling pretty confident we will get a trade deal done with China shortly. World demand still continues to be strong, so a deal done with China would be beneficial. However, we still have lots of soybeans to move," Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Friday export sales of 100,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

Separately, the USDA released its delayed Weekly Export Sales Report. Corn sales were at the high end of expectations, while soybeans and wheat came in at the low end.

  • Corn = 893,900 metric tons, up 27% from the previous week and 95% from the prior four-week average. The trade expected between 500,000 and 1,000,000 mt.
  • Soybeans =  470,900 mt., up 47% from the previous week and 54% from the prior four-week average. The trade expected between 400,000 and 700,000 mt.
  • Wheat = 438,300 mt., down 34% from the previous week and 18% from the prior four-week average. The trade expected sales between 400,000 and 650,000 mt.

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Thurday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm futures trim gains, with soybeans retreating from double-digit gains.

In the past few days, the USDA has reported soybean sales to an unknown buyer. Investors often believe that unknown buyer has been China. The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report, delayed until Friday due to the Veterans Day holiday, is expected to be favorable for soybean prices.

At the close, December corn futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.67½; March futures ended ¼¢ higher at $3.78¼.
 
January soybean futures closed 5¼¢ higher at $8.88¾; March soybean futures settled 5½¢ higher at $9.02¼.
 
December wheat futures settled 2½¢ higher at $5.05½. December soy meal futures closed 0.30¢ per short ton lower at $305.40. December soy oil futures finished 0.12¢ higher at 27.69¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 26¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 183 points higher.

Britt O’Connell, cash adviser for Commodity Risk Management Group, says soybeans have managed a significant rally off its October 31 lows.

 “With hopes running high that a trade deal is on the horizon, traders have unloaded nearly half of the short positions that they had held at that time, currently carrying an estimated 45,000 contracts short,” O’Connell says.  

Last Thursday in its monthly WASDE report, the USDA confirmed what we have already known about the U.S. 2018/19 soybean ending stocks: They are big – 955 million bushels. “While we can’t rule out more speculative buying, it appears that this is an opportune time to sell the fact; a new trade deal with China will not change the massive supplies that we have both nationally and globally,” O’Connell says.

Overhead resistance lies near $9.25 vs. the January board, O’Connell says.

“Corn and beans have been a follower in the trade this week. With no fresh fundamental news to trade, these markets have been quiet and rangebound. Moving forward, corn will have to be cognizant of where it is priced as compared to soybeans, so as not to buy too many acres as we move into the 2019 growing season,” O’Connell says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the soybean market is benefiting from news of trade talk softening between U.S. and China.

“Corn has been feeling the pressure of the wheat market being down, and soybeans continue to find a little support with optimism regarding trade talks with China,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “Even though trade talks with China are positive, we will still struggle to get a deal in place before the end of the year.”

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade mixed, with soybeans leaning to the upside.

At the close, December corn futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.67; March futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.78.
 
January soybean futures closed 5¼¢ higher at $8.83; March soybean futures finished 5¢ higher at $8.96¾.

December wheat futures closed 4¾¢ lower at $5.03.

December soy meal futures finished 1.80¢ per short ton higher at $305.70. December soy oil futures ended 0.02¢ higher at 27.57¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.45 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 206 points lower.

USDA announced fresh sales of corn and soybeans on Wednesday.

Private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

  • Export sales of 212,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2018/2019 marketing year 
  • Export sales of 148,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm futures markets finish lower.

At the close, December corn futures finished 4¾¢ lower at $3.66½; March futures closed 4¼¢ lower at $3.77¾.

January soybean futures closed 5¢ lower at $8.78¼; March soybean futures closed 5¢ lower at $8.91¾.

December wheat futures closed 12¢ lower at $5.07¾.

December soy meal futures settled 1.70¢ per short ton lower at $303.90. December soy oil futures closed 0.16¢ lower at 27.55¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $4.24 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 148 points lower.

On Tuesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 276,732 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
 
The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says it has been a Turnaround Tuesday.  

“News that China and the U.S. are indeed talking and that the finance ministers might meet before the big leaders meet at the G-20 helped the beans overnight, but not so much today,” Scoville says.  

Scoville added, “Cold but dry in most of the Midwest, so harvest should be active. Corn and wheat prices are lower, which seems to have people scratching their heads.”  

USDA’s corn and soybean Weekly Export Inspections Report Tuesday was strong and should have provided more support to grains today, Scoville says.  

“But, the weakness came from crude oil and the stock market creating some fears of a meltdown in the global economy or something like that. If nothing else it is creating some selling, as people look to cover losses in crude with profits elsewhere.”  

Scoville adds, “Good harvest progress is expected to show up in this afternoon’s USDA Report and good harvest progress expected this week, as the harvest finally starts to wind down. Now to get the rest of the WW planted! Might not happen.”

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says investors will be watching this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress Report.

“Winter wheat crop conditions will show some crop deterioration when they are released tomorrow afternoon. However, with freezing temps all the way down to Oklahoma this night, conditions will show a major decline in the Crop Conditions Report out on November 19,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade mostly higher.

At the close, December corn futures finished 1½¢ higher at $3.71; March futures ended 1¢ higher at $3.82.

January soybean futures closed 3¼¢ lower at $8.83¼; March soybean futures closed 3¼¢ lower at $8.96.

December wheat futures ended 17¾¢ higher at $5.19¾.

December soy meal futures settled even at $305.60. December soy oil futures closed 0.09¢ higher at 27.71¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 48¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 533 points lower.

Brian A. Rydlund, CHS hedging market analyst, says the markets, overall, seem subdued. “Wheat is up over worries about weather. It has been too wet, now too cold to seed HRW or SRW. This may be costing us acres and we had gotten cheap, at or near last month’s lows,” Rydlund says.      

Corn and soybeans have flipped roles from Friday. Soybeans hope for some resolution to the China, U.S. trade tiff standoff. There is some chatter late Friday of  a “deal framework” in D.C., but no follow-up chatter today. The optimists hope something good can come in Argentina at the end of the month, when Presidents Trump and Xi meet.”
 
Rydlund adds, “Grain sales remain slow and less than desired, as buyers push basis bids in an effort to attract grain. So far, there has been little luck with those efforts. Soybeans remain hard to buy.”

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