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Corn, Soybeans Close Lower, to End the Week

The soybean market falls 9¢ on Friday.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s farm markets drop, as analysts see rallies capped  by sufficient supplies.

At the close, the May futures finished 2¾¢ lower at $3.62. July futures are 3¼¢ lower at $3.71.
 
May soybean futures closed 7¼¢ lower at $8.99. July soybean futures finished 7¼¢ lower at $9.12.

May wheat futures finished 3¾¢ lower at $4.67¾.

May soymeal futures settled $3.90 per short ton lower at $308.00. May soy oil futures closed 0.05¢ lower at 29.15¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.95 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors still know that supplies are large.

“We will have a tough time rallying soybeans above $9.10 against May futures, and corn above $3.70 against May corn futures. We still have huge supplies. The market will be reluctant to rally too much,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, “Talks of a potential summit between President Trump and President Xi got the market to pop a little on Thursday. Once the news came out that a date would not be announced, the grains pulled back a little but ended up having a nice day. The bull spreads are working. If we get some announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and China, then we could see the funds start to buy back some of their huge short position in corn and soybeans.”

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, investors are buying into the strong U.S. soybean export sales report.

At the close, the May futures finished 2½¢ higher at $3.65¼. July futures ended 2¼¢ higher at $3.74¼.
 

May soybean futures settled 7¾¢ higher at $9.06¼. July soybean futures closed 7¼¢ higher at $9.19½.

May wheat futures finished ¼¢ lower at $4.70.

May soymeal futures closed $0.90 per short ton higher at $311.90. May soy oil futures ended 0.40¢ higher at 29.20¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.07 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 134 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that the market is pushing higher, with the spring planting season arriving.

“Yes, grains are trying to build some kind of premium with spring fast approaching, solid exports, and a positive demand outlook. Plus, with the funds short and a weather forecast not conducive for early planting, we are seeing strong base forming in all the grains,” Roose says.

On Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report strong soybean, wheat figures.

  • Corn = 7630,300 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 700,000 to 1.200,000 mmt.
  • Soybeans = 1.99 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000 mt. to 2.0 mmt.
  • Wheat = 1.017 mmt. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000 to 900,000 mt.
  • Soybean meal = 190,300 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 75,000 to 350,000 mt.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors would like to see the results of a trade deal between the U.S. and China.

“We still have negative stocks of all three grains sitting in the U.S. and around the world. In addition, there are rumors China and the U.S. are getting very close to a trade deal. However, the market is a bit reluctant to jump on the positive news of a potential China trade deal, because we have been down this road before,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets stay slightly higher.

At the close, the May futures finished 1¼¢ higher at $3.62. July futures finished 1¼¢ higher at $3.72.
 
May soybean futures closed 1¼¢ lower at $8.98¾. July soybean futures finished 1¼¢ lower at $9.12¼.

May wheat futures ended 7¢ higher at $4.71.

May soymeal futures ended $0.40 per short ton higher at $311.00. May soy oil futures closed 0.16¢ lower at 28.80¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.21 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points higher.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that investors want to know if there is a deal with China or not.

“We are on China watch it seems, now that the weather is more quiet. But there will still be planting delays and switched acres, we are just away from that idea now with the reports out.  Eyes turning a bit to the monthly supply and demand and we know that we have supplies, we know that from last week. Disappointing soybean and wheat action, given the weaker dollar and the fact the dollar is failing against resistance. A pretty slow day in the grains,” Scoville says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are shifting their focus.

“Further gains in soybeans could help corn prices grind higher. Headlines have not had much impact so far this week. However, there are reports overnight from both U.S. and Chinese officials that they feel a trade deal is getting very close to becoming reality. I think grain traders will need to see the dry ink of a signed deal before they adjust positions,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, “Will the wet forecasts for the central and eastern Corn Belt hold true? Current rainfall estimates would slow fieldwork and push back starting dates for already flooded areas.”

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Tusday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets end mostly higher.

The soybean market has added 15¢ per bushel, in the last two sessions.

At the close, the May futures finished ¼¢ lower at $3.61. July futures ended ¼¢ lower at $3.70.
 
May soybean futures closed 4½¢ higher at $9.00. July soybean futures closed 4¾¢ higher at $9.13½.

May wheat futures ended 1¼¢ lower at $4.64.

May soymeal futures settled $1.20 short ton higher at $310.60. May soy oil futures finished 0.39¢ higher at 28.96¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.09 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 89 points lower.

Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC director of commodity consulting, says the market is weighing crop conditions and the next news drop.

“Wheat on defensive following crop conditions showing HRW higher year-on-year. Add into this talk of Canada slashing canola acreage, which would suggest higher spring wheat acreage doesn’t help,” Pierce says.

Pierce adds, “Soybeans and corn are stuck looking for the next catalyst. Everyone watching weather models from here out.”

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are shifting their focus.

“May soybeans are testing the first overhead resistance at $8.99. May corn will need to rally a little further before testing the 20-day average at $3.70. A private U.S.-based firm increased its estimates for Brazilian corn production on Monday afternoon. This is in line with how South American analysts are updating their numbers to reflect the improved weather conditions as the crop reaches maturity,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, “Option trading on Monday saw a lot of corn calls being sold. This trade is thought to be directly tied to unwinding of short futures positions. This could be a signal that the funds are starting to exit some of their shorts.”

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the first trading day of April is price-positive, as soybeans lead the way.

At the close, the May futures finished 5¼¢ higher at $3.61¾. July futures finished 4¾¢ higher at $3.71.
 
May soybean futures settled 11¼¢ higher at $8.95½. July soybean futures finished 11¢ higher at $9.08¾.

May wheat futures ended 5¢ higher at $4.62½.

May soymeal futures closed $2.90 per short ton higher at $309.40. May soy oil futures closed 0.21¢ higher at 28.57¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.44 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 296 points higher.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the soybean market is certainly helping the corn and wheat prices.

“We are firmer due to word that the China talks are going very well again and will continue later this week.  China bought more soybeans and this was confirmed Friday and today. There are some ideas that we are making seasonal lows, after the reports on Friday, and this is very possible. At any rate, the farmers are not selling and the commercials will be using this break to extend coverage,” Scoville says.

Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 828,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says investors are shifting their focus.

“Traders will now shift their focus to weather forecasts across the U.S. The flooding this spring creates a problematic situation for determining how many acres actually get planted. Updated estimates over the next few weeks will help traders analyze how fewer acres could impact the U.S. balance sheet,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, “Traders are anxious to see the first Crop Progress Report of the season this afternoon. Those reports are released every Monday afternoon at 3 p.m. Central time.”

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