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Soybean commentary

The bean market saw a bout of pre-report/end of the week selling today. It may be hard to believe, but for the week November beans settled ¾ cents higher.

On Monday, the USDA will be releasing its updated supply/demand estimate as well as the results of their special bean acreage survey. A Bloomberg survey reported that that the trade is looking for the bean production to come in at 3.357 billion bushels with the range of guesses being 3.268 to 3.420 billion bushels. The survey showed the trade is estimating the bean yield to come in at 43.7, which is lower than the July USDA estimate of 44.5. The survey also reported that old crop bean carryout is expected to drop to 123 million bushels for the old crop and drop to 262 million bushels for the new crop. The latest USDA old crop carryout estimate was 125 million bushels while the new crop estimated was 295 million bushels.

The trade is looking for world reserve stocks to jump to 74.39 MMT up from the July estimate of 74.12 MMT for the 2013/2014 season. Check out Allendale’s estimates here. Weather continues to be viewed generally favorable with no major heat threats in the forecast, but at the same time there is scattered rain showing up for most of the Midwest over the next 10 days. It is worth pointing out that Iowa keeps missing out on its forecast rains which could hurt the crop prospects as August rains are critical to determining the size of the crop. Old crop beans should remain volatile as end-users continue to struggle to get the beans out of the farmer hands after the recent selloff we have seen. Rallies in the new crop look like selling opportunities. The results of Monday’s reports will probably set the direction for next week’s trade.

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