Sunday Night’s Weather Forecast Will Determine Corn Market’s Direction

Overnight and morning weather maps Friday eased up on the Midwestern heat, but they also eased up on rains.

This helped keep those maps supportive for the markets this morning. It helped to take corn right to top-end resistance of $4.09 per bushel. December actually hit $4.09 just before the noon six- to 10-day forecast maps came out. The new forecast did cool the temperatures even more and added a small amount of rain. These noon maps did not suggest pollination is in the clear, but it did ease up concerns enough to see corn pull back from $4.09 to the low $4.00s.

Of course, we know that Sunday night maps will mean much more to trade than today’s maps. So, let’s be sure to keep updated with what is on the Sunday night and Monday morning maps. Keep in mind that today’s maps had moderate heat in the short-term forecast and somewhat limited rains days in the six- to 15-day. However, Sunday night’s maps are different, and that is how we should start trade next week.

Bulls

• Dryness appearing on the weather maps raises a new concern that hasn’t been seen lately: Bulls want to see dryness continue Monday.
• More beneficial to a bounce would be to see heat appear in the one- to 10-day maps. The closer to Iowa, Illinois, or Indiana, the more supportive it will be.
• If December moves above 409, it will open up the charts to 422¾, but bulls should still not expect a fast run to that level. Active cash selling will slow the bounce.

Bears

• The key resistance of 409 held today and worked as at least a short-term selling point for bears.
• Obviously, bears will be looking for more rain and a lack of heat on Sunday night’s weather maps.
• The first downside target on less threatening weather maps will be the chart gap fill of 393¾.