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Soybeans Close 7¢ Higher Thursday

Corn and wheat are up, too.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets remain stronger.

At the close, the September corn futures finished 1¾¢ higher at $3.74¼, and December futures closed 1¾¢ higher at $3.87¾.

August soybean futures closed 6¢ higher at $9.94¾; November soybean futures ended 7¼¢ higher at $10.07½.

September wheat futures closed 2¢ higher at $4.79¾.

December soy meal futures closed $2.50 per short ton higher at $329.00. December soy oil futures closed 0.08¢ higher at 34.29¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.28 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 5 points higher.

On Thursday, the USDA announced fresh soybean sales.

Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 198,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year, and 66,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

Separately, the soybean sales were at the high end of expectations, in today’s USDA Weekly Export Sales Report:

  • Wheat = 498,000 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000 and 550,000 mt.
  • Corn = 578,600 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000 and 800,000 mt.
  • Soybeans = 835,200 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000 and 900,000 mt.
  • Soybean meal = 61,900 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 50,000 and 175,000 metric tons.

 

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the farm markets finished stronger, but off their daily highs. The trade sees yesterday’s sell-off as overdone, and the markets remain volatile.

At the close, the September corn futures finished 4¢ higher at $3.72, and December futures finished 3¾¢ higher at $3.86.

August soybean futures closed 7¼¢ higher at $9.88¾; November soybean futures finished 7½¢ higher at $10.

September wheat futures ended 3¾¢ higher at $4.77.

December soy meal futures ended $1.60 per short ton higher at $326.50. December soy oil futures closed 0.27¢ higher at 34.24¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 86¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 108 points higher.

Brian A. Rydlund, CHS Hedging market analyst, says today’s move higher is nothing more than a breather.

“We beat things up pretty good in the past few sessions. It’s hard to press corn under $3.75, basis December 2017 futures,” Rydlund says.

He adds, “The cash soybean markets have been firm (basis improving), and spreads have snugged up. Neither of those two things allow futures to sell off much more.”

Looking out longer term, grain prices could get cheaper if these forecasts roll true with no extreme heat in sight, Rydlund says.

“Rallies may be limited and South America has more to sell. So, its farmers will sell at cheaper levels and that’s not good for U.S. prices,” Rydlund says.

Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management Group, says higher markets are a result of technical support that kicked in amid a lack of fundamental stories.  

“Crop conditions have deteriorated but are in line with long-term averages. With little to talk about until the August WASDE report, traders used the July low in soybeans and long-standing support in corn as a place to buy orders. More of this type of trade is expected in the vacuum of news until the August 10 report release,” North says.

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets get caught up in a negative swirl of volatility.

At the close, the September corn futures ended 8½¢ lower at $3.68¾, and December futures finished 8½¢ lower at $3.82¼.

August soybean futures settled 16¢ lower at $9.81½; November soybean futures closed 17¼¢ lower at $9.92¾.

September wheat futures closed 14¾¢ lower at $4.74.

December soy meal futures closed $7.80 per short ton lower at $324.90. December soy oil futures finished 0.08¢ lower at 33.97¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.58 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 118 points higher, while the S&P has hit a record high at 2,477 points.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities analyst, says that the hard down move today in the grain markets was a result of volatility.

“The volatile market continues in the grain market, with discounting of the lower crop ratings and investors focusing on the overall supply of grain in the world and the seasonal drop in exports.”

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets trimmed losses but remained in a defensive posture as the extreme heat is seen leaving the Midwest and chances of rain are moving in.

The extreme heat has been taken out of future weather outlooks for the Midwest. Also, some parts of the Corn Belt received rain over the weekend.

At the close, the September corn futures finished 2½¢ lower at $3.77, and December futures ended 2¾¢ lower at $3.90¾.

August soybean futures settled 11½¢ lower at $9.97½; November soybean futures closed 12¼¢ lower at $10.10.

September wheat futures closed 10½¢ lower at $4.88¾.

December soy meal futures closed $4.10 per short ton lower at $332.70. December soy oil futures finished 0.22¢ lower at 34.05¢ per pound. 

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 52¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points lower.

Meanwhile, the USDA announced Monday a fresh corn sale.

Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 135,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began September 1.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says the lower trade Monday was related to some better-than-expected rains this weekend plus outlooks for light showers in eastern Iowa and southern Illinois this week. 

“Most of the selling came in the first hour last night and some at the reopen today. Otherwise, the market has been stable and coming back some into the close. Crop conditions should drop tonight, and there is no real change in the overall forecast for hot and dusty in the south and west and wet in the north and east, so we might recover from these losses. Felt like a fund dump out overnight, but the follow through has been pretty limited. So, I hesitate to read too much into it,” Scoville says.

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