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It’s a Risk-On Party for Soybeans
DES MOINES, Iowa -- The CME Group’s soybean complex closed up double-digits Friday, as hot/dry weather remains in the Midwestern weather outlooks.
Plus, the U.S. dollar is lower, soybean demand leans stronger, and the yield potential remains unncertain. All stars align for a rally.
At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.92 1/2, while December futures closed 2¢ higher at $4.04 3/4.
Aug. soybean futures finished 15 1/4¢ higher at $10.01, November soybean futures closed 16 1/4¢ higher at $10.15 1/2.
September wheat futures ended 4¢ lower at $5.35.
August soy meal futures settled $8.70 per short ton higher at $330.70. August soy oil futures finished $0.05 lower at 32.85¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.32 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 91 points higher.
Deanna Hawthorne-Lahre, StatFutures co-founder and trader, says that the soybean action is purely heat driven.
"The birdies are lowering yield numbers, behind the scenes,' Hawthorne-Lahre says. "Also, we've heard chirping that there are 7.0 million acres of soybeans up in ND at risk, along with the wheat crop that makes up the Minneapolis market. So, we have a bit of a fire lit under it this week."
For corn, the market made it through the $4.00 level, she says. "But, I am having a hard time caring about corn at this stage. Wheat and Kansas wheat have balanced, given what happened in the Minneapolis market. As far as I'm concerned, the heat and weather is in this market, and if something doesn't back it up, we'll test the longs again," Hawthorne-Lahre says.
On Friday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 143,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 11,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year, and 132,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year.
The marketing year for corn began September 1.
The USDA announced its delayed Weekly Export Sales Friday. Wheat and soybean sales beat expectations.
- Wheat: 75,300 metric tons (mt) vs. the trade’s expectation of between 350,000 and 550,000 mt
- Corn: 214,800 mt vs. the trade’s expectation of between 350,000 and 700,000 mt
- Soybeans: 438,700 mt vs. the trade’s expectation of between 250,000 and 750,000 mt
- Soybean meal: 45,100 mt vs. the trade’s expectation of between 25,000 and 200,000 mt
Thursday’s Grain Market Review
On Thursday, the CME Group’s wheat markets gave back some of this week’s gains, as rains arrive in drought-stressed areas of the Northern Plains.
It’s a weather market, and rain is falling throughout parts of the Midwest.
At the close, the September corn futures finished 1½¢ lower at $3.90½, and December futures closed 1¼¢ lower at $4.02¾.
August soybean futures finished 4¢ higher at $9.85¾; November soybean futures closed 5¢ higher at $9.99.
September wheat futures closed 21¢ lower at $5.39.
August soy meal futures finished $3.70 per short ton higher at $322.00. August soy oil futures are 0.34¢ lower at 32.90¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 21¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 122 points lower.
Wednesday’s Grain Market Review
On Wednesday, the CME Group’s soybean prices finish strong, returning to daily highs.
At the close, the September corn futures finished 3½¢ higher at $3.92, and December futures closed 4¾¢ higher at $4.04.
August soybean futures closed 11¾¢ higher at $9.81¾; November soybean futures finished 13½¢ higher at $9.94¼.
September wheat futures closed 5¢ higher at $5.60.
August soy meal futures finished $4.50 per short ton higher at $318.30. August soy oil futures finished unchanged at 33.24¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.77 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 1 point lower.
Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy senior grain analyst, says the market setback has no real factor to blame.
“Wheat is still the leader, and it looks like profit-taking in that market. Nothing has changed for corn, soybean crop-weather,” Meyer says.
Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says with weather still the dominant issue, the grains are trading mixed.
“Crop ratings will be closely watched today, as the maturity of the crop is a concern in some parts of the Corn Belt,” Roose says.