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Soybean Futures Close Higher

Traders continue to watch export news.

Des Moines, Iowa -- At the close of Friday’s trading, soybeans settled higher with corn up slightly.                      

March corn futures closed 1¼¢ higher at $3.87¾. May corn settled 1¢ higher at $3.94.

Jan. soybean futures ended 3¾¢ higher at $9.28¼. March soybean futures were 2¢ higher at $9.38¼.

March wheat futures closed 3¢ lower at $5.42¼.

January soymeal futures closed $0.50 per short ton lower at $297.90. January soy oil futures settled unchanged at 33.79¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.08 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 122 points higher.

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DES MOINES, Iowa --At midday Friday, soybeans continue their rally while corn is up only slightly and wheat futures are down.

March corn futures are up by 1¼¢ at $3.87¾. May corn is 1¢ higher at $3.94.
 
Jan. soybean futures are 4¢ higher at $9.28½. March soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.39¼.

March wheat futures are 4½¢ lower at $5.40¾.

January soymeal futures are $1.00 per short ton higher at $299.40 per short ton. January soy oil futures are 0.14¢ lower at 33.65¢ per pound.

“Corn and soybean prices continue their rally today as private Chinese analysts provide projections for hitting approximately $40 billion in U.S. ag purchases,” says Jake Hanley
managing director and portfolio manager with Teucrium Trading. “Wheat prices are lower today after a sizeable run to the upside. A down day is not surprising and may be healthy for the trade.”

Matt Tranel, risk management advisor with the Commodity Risk Management Group, adds, "The grain complex is continuing a choppy trade today.  Choppy trade has defined the space this week after last week's run higher on positive trade news regarding a phase one deal with China.  Now the market is looking for clarity surrounding what quantities of U.S. agricultural products that China will look to import."

"Details have been vague which has put the brakes on the market until more is known," Tranel says. "Export sales on Thursday were excellent in both corn and wheat, however, soybeans and meal exports were disappointing.  Corn has bumped its head this week against resistance standing at $3.90 off the March board with further resistance coming in at $3.95 and $4. It's the same story with Chicago wheat.  We tested $5.55 March wheat earlier this week but haven't been able to sustain it.  Major resistance comes into play at $5.70/bu so this seems to be more of a technical trade."

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.95 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 127 points higher.

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- In early trading Friday, the March corn futures are up by ¼¢ at $3.86¾. May corn is ½¢ higher at $3.93½.

Jan. soybean futures are 2¢ higher at $9.26½. March soybean futures are also 2¢ higher at $9.38¼.

March wheat futures are ¾¢ lower at $5.44½.

January soymeal futures are $0.20 per short ton lower at $298.20. January soy oil futures are 0.10¢ higher at 33.89¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.40 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 96 points higher.

Here are some of the things that Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors is watching today:

“Keep an eye on any export sales announcements,” he says. “Export demand has been picking up since the U.S. and China agreed (in principle) on a trade deal. Since the agreement, we have been seeing a nice uptick in purchases from China.”

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

Otherwise, at this time of year, typically, “Grain prices will settle in a nice tight range to close out the year, anticipating the USDA Crop Production report on January 10,” Kluis adds.         

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets trade mixed.

At midsession, the March corn futures are ¼¢ higher at $3.87¼. May corn futures are ½¢ higher at $3.93¾.
 
Jan. soybean futures are 4½¢ lower at $9.24. March soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $9.36.

March wheat futures are ½¢ higher at $5.48½.

January soymeal futures are $3.90 per short ton lower at $299.00. January soy oil futures are 0.46¢ higher at 33.89¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.45 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 101 points higher.

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 126,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows strong demand figures.

  • Corn = 2.236 million metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 600,000 and 2,000,000 mmt.
  • Soybeans = 1.46 million metric tons vs. trade’s expectations of 950,000 and 1,600,000 mmt.
  • Wheat = 868,600 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000 and 700,000 mt.
  • Soybean meal = 83,500 mt. the trade’s expectations of 150,000 and 300,000 mt.

 
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the bulls are running this market.
 
“U.S. grain prices took a breather on Wednesday and pulled back after starting the week higher. The markets are patiently awaiting details of the U.S./China trade deal. Weather in South America seems to be lending some support to grain prices as well. Funds have been buyers of all three commodities this week, so the big question is if they will continue to buy into Friday, ” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Kluis added, “I think the funds will not want to be short or hold a short position into the New Year, as the trade deal with China could produce a nice uptick in demand.”

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says the soybean market is seeing carryover from yesterday’s long liquidation day on a lack of news.

“I still think the market, over time, will work higher. But we have thrown a lot of news at this thing already, and it feels like it is time to ring the register. Not much else to talk about except the impeachment good and bad. So, it seems like a good time to ring the register.”

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets sink.

At midsession, the March corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.87. May corn futures are 2½¢ lower at $3.94.
 
Jan. soybean futures are ¾¢ lower at $9.28. March soybean futures are 1¢ lower at $9.39½.

March wheat futures are 8½¢ lower at $5.47½.

January soymeal futures are $0.30 per short ton higher at $302.60. January soy oil futures are 0.36¢ lower at 33.46¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.01 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 8 points higher.

 
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says the bulls are running this market.
 
“The recent rally has now pushed corn nearly 20¢ off its low from five days ago, while soybeans are over 60¢ off the low scored on December 2. Is the rally being driven by funds trying to cover short positions now that Phase One of the trade deal looks to become a reality? That would make sense. We could also be seeing traders adjusting positions for the year-end. Either way, the bulls are on track to end the year in charge,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Kluis added, “The bears claimed victory for Thanksgiving. It appears the bulls are setting their sights on Christmas. If options remain relatively cheap on this rally, then it will be worth looking at different strategies for the January crop report before the end of the year.”

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s investors buy into the soybean market, while surveying the impact of the U.S.-China trade agreement.

At the close, March corn futures finished 2¢ higher at $3.90; May corn futures ended 1¼¢ higher at $3.96.
 
January soybean futures settled 6¾¢ higher at $9.28¾; March soybean futures closed 4¾¢ higher at $9.40½.

March wheat futures settled 6½¢ higher at $5.56½.

January soy meal futures ended $1 per short ton higher at $302.30. January soy oil futures closed 0.67¢ higher at 33.81¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 73¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points higher.

Britt O’Connell, cash advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says the markets are now trading post-stage 1 trade agreement. Both corn and beans are now trading new, albiet, familiar ranges.

“Corn will likely trade the $3.85-$3.95 range that it initially found earlier this year vs. the December contract. A move thru $4 may take additional positive news. Soybeans have recovered from the technical selloff that took place earlier this month, with the funds covering their newly acquired positions. Should we have follow-through positive sentiment and/or experience actual purchases from China, the funds will likely move into a long position.” 

She added, “Given the time of year, I would expect that corn follows to some degree. From a technical perspective, soybeans have resistance about every 20¢ in this market; $9.20, $9.40, and $9.60. The $9.60 price really represents the top end of where this market has been for nearly a year. Without any large purchases or new news, the coming weeks could remain fairly quiet and rangebound.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says the markets will be eyeing export results from the U.S.-China trade agreement.
 
“The grain markets closed higher on Monday as weather concerns increase in South America and optimism that the Phase One trade agreement will create additional export demand,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers. Will the Weekly Export Sales Report on Thursday show us if the Phase One trade agreement results in larger-than-usual U.S. grain export sales to China and the rest of the world?”

Kluis added, “In Argentina, grain export taxes jumped to 30% on soybeans and 25% for corn and wheat. Farmer sales will slow down in Argentina, and so will Argentine global exports.”

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets are realizing the final agreement on the U.S.-China trade agreement.

READ MORE: How China Tariffs on U.S. Commodities, Energy Stand After 'Phase One' Trade Deal

In early trading, March corn futures are 6¢ higher at $3.87; May corn futures are 5¾¢ higher at $3.93¼.
 
January soybean futures are 9¼¢ higher at $9.17½; March soybean futures are 9¢ higher at $9.31½.

March wheat futures are 9¢ higher at $5.41.

January soy meal futures are $2.70 per short ton higher at $299.90. January soy oil futures are 0.56¢ higher at 33.15¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 12¢ per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 127 points higher.
 
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says the markets seem poised for a run-up.
 
“In the overnight markets, dry weather concerns in South America and more details about the U.S.-China trade deal have boosted prices,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers. “We are watching the weather and forecasts for South America, especially northeast Brazil and southern Argentina, where there has been limited rain over the last month, and now the forecast is dry for the next two weeks.”

Kluis added, “Trade optimism about the Phase One trade agreement is going to give us a good chance to make more soybean and wheat sales this week.”

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