USDA sees U.S. soybean stocks dwindling, market pops

U.S. to have lower-than-expected corn supplies, too.

The U.S. and world have lower and lower amounts soybeans, all of the time, according to the USDA.

On Friday, the USDA released its October Supply/Demand Report.

As a result, the CME Group’s farm markets jumped. Soybeans rallied 25¢, corn up 4¢, and wheat up 5¢.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures settled 8¢ higher at $3.95½. March corn futures closed 7½¢ higher at $4.02¼. 

Nov. soybean futures settled 15½¢ higher at $10.65¾. January soybean futures closed 17¼¢ lower at $10.65.

Dec. wheat futures closed 1½¢ lower at $5.93½. 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $4.10 per short ton higher at $363.70. Dec. soy oil futures settled $1.01 cent higher at 34.01¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.61 per barrel lower at $40.58. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 135 points higher.

U.S. 2020/21 Production

For corn, the U.S. crop is estimated at 14.7 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 14.82 billion and the USDA’s previous estimate of 14.9 billion bushels. 

The U.S. corn yield is estimated at 178.4 bushels per acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 177.9 bu./acre and the USDA’s September estimate of 178.5.

The U.S. harvested area is pegged at 82.5 million acres vs. the trade’s expectation of 83.3 million and the USDA’s September estimate of 83.5 million.

For soybeans, total 2020/21 output is estimated at 4.26 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 4.28 billion and the USDA’s September estimate of 4.31 billion.

The U.S. avg. yield is pegged at 51.9 bu./acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 51.7 bu./acre and the USDA’s September estimate of 51.9.

The U.S. soybean harvested area is pegged at 82.5 million acres vs. the trade’s estimate of 82.9 million and the USDA’s previous estimate of 83.0 million.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2020/21

The U.S. corn ending stocks are pegged at 2.16 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectations of 2.12 billion and the USDA’s previous estimate of 2.50 billion.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 363 million bushels and the USDA’s previous estimate of 460 million.

For wheat, the U.S. ending stocks are estimated at 883 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 890 million and the USDA’s September estimate of 925 million.

World Ending Stocks 2020/21

For corn, the USDA sees the world ending stocks at 300.5 million metric tons (mmt.) vs. the trade’s estimate of 299.6 mmt. and the governmental agency’s September estimate of 306.8 mmt.

The world’s soybean ending stocks are pegged at 88.7 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 91.2 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 93.6 mmt.

Wheat’s world ending stocks are estimated at 321.5 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 317.2 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 319.4 mmt.

Read more: Brazil's farmers struggle with dry soybean planting weather

Trade Response

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that today’s report sets up an acreage battle for next year.
“The report has served to validate industry suspicions of tightening balance sheets in corn and soybeans, which foretells a fight for acres next spring between beans and corn. This was the most friendly WASDE report in recent memory,” Gilbertie says.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that there are no major shocks reported today in October’s WASDE crop report. 

“When initially looking at yield and ending stocks, it only confirmed prereport estimates. Soybean exports were increased by 75 million, helping to drop the carryout 170 million. But the surprise was the 1.0-million-acre drop in corn and a 700,000-acre reduction in beans. This added price premium, different from past crop reports. No price premium has been dialed in with beans and wheat at multiple-year highs. Weather in South America, exports, currency values, and final yield estimates will all determine the next market trend,” Roose says.

Read more about

Tip of the Day

Galvanized screen squares make great piping barriers

pipe mesh form To form barriers for birds and rodents, I use my metal press and PVC pipe caps to mold and shape ¼-inch galvanized screen squares. Pieces... read more

Talk in Marketing

Most Recent Poll

What are the benefits to using a farmland leasing/purchasing tool?