Weather concerns fade for the U.S., intensify for South America, analyst says

Brazil's major soybean-producing state is way behind on planting.

Weather is becoming less and less important every day for the U.S., and more important for South America.

South America Weather

Weather forecasts are consistent with yesterday, and call for drier weather in most of Brazil, except for the northern 25% of the country which will see above-normal precip.  The rest of Brazil and all of Argentina will see another dry period the next week. However, the forecast slides back to near-normal precip in the eight- to 14-day forecast.  

Temps are mostly normal in all of Brazil for the next two weeks, but above normal in Argentina. Matto Grasso is reportedly 54% planted this year vs. 82% last year and 68% average.  o, there will be less double-crop corn planted this year, and more yield loss on what is planted as a second crop.    

U.S. Weather

U.S. weather calls for above-normal precip in OK, KS, NE, IA, WI, MT, and ND, but below normal in the rest of the U.S. the next week. Temps are above normal for the next week before a cooling period starting in the west for the eight- to 14-day forecast.     

Crop progress showed corn harvest at 82% (13% ahead of normal), soybeans 87% harvested (4% ahead), cotton harvest 52% (3% ahead), sorghum 82% harvested (11% ahead), sunflowers 81% harvested (7% ahead), and sugar beets 95% harvested (11% ahead). Basically it was a great harvest, and farmers are smiling a lot this fall.  

Winter wheat is 89% planted (3% ahead of normal), and is rated 43% G/E (up 2% this week).  Also significantly, topsoil moisture improved 8% to 62% adequate/surplus, with subsoil improving 4% to 56% rated adequate/surplus. These are huge improvements, and certainly take some of the risk out of 2021 for drought.  

It’s finally election day, when we find out the direction our country will be going. It’s a pretty stark difference between the candidates, so it will be interesting what the American people choose.   


Ray can be reached at raygrabanski@progressiveag.com.  
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Ray is President of Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc., a top Ranked marketing firm in the country.  See http://www.progressiveag.com for rankings and link to data from Top Producer Magazine and Agweb.com. 

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