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Soybeans Lower, Corn Little Changed Ahead of WASDE

Analysts expect USDA to raise yield, production forecasts.

Soybean futures were lower in early trading ahead of today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters said they expect the U.S. Department of Agriculture to raise its forecasts for yield and production for both corn and soybeans. 

Favorable weather throughout much of the growing season in most of the Corn Belt has given crops a bump, though recent dry spells have brought ratings down. The condition of the soybean and corn crops, however, are still at historically high levels for this time of year. 

Prices are also being pressured by an incoming weather front that’s expected to push into the Midwest next week, bringing rain to areas that desperately could use precipitation. Parts of northern Missouri, eastern Kansas, and southern Iowa are under extreme or exceptional drought, the worst-possible ratings, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Any rain that falls in the region will stem losses or even boost yields. 

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 7½¢ to $8.96½ a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures fell $1.40 to $333.50 a short ton, and soy oil rose 0.03¢ to 28.91¢ a pound.

Corn for December delivery lost 1¾¢ to $3.81 a bushel in Chicago.

Wheat for September delivery gained 4¢ to $5.68½ a bushel in Chicago, while Kansas City futures added 1½¢ to $6.05¾ a bushel.

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets dip, ahead of the USDA August Reports.

On Friday, the USDA will update its supply/demand and production estimates at 11:00 a.m. CT.

At the close, the September corn futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.69¼. December futures finished 2¼¢ lower at $3.82¾.

September soybean futures finished 6¾¢ lower at $8.93. November soybean futures closed 6½¢ lower at $9.04.

September wheat futures settled 5½¢ lower at $5.64.

September soy meal futures ended $2.90 per short ton lower at $332.60. September soy oil futures settled 0.04¢ lower at 28.55.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.09 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 19 points lower.

On Thursday, the USDA announced Weekly Export Sales Report for corn and soybeans that came in at the high end of expectations, while wheat was within.

  • Corn = 1.21 million metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 750,000 and 1,400,000 mt.
  • Soybeans = 954,300 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 400,000 and 1,000,000 mt.
  • Wheat = 317,100 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000 and 500,000 mt.
  • Soybean meal = 129,500 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 50,000 and 250,000 metric tons.

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s higher soybean market is being driven by dry Midwestern weather.

At the close, the September corn futures finished ½¢ higher at $3.71¾. December futures closed ½¢ higher at $3.85.

September soybean futures closed 4½¢ higher at $8.99¾. November soybean futures closed 4¾¢ higher at $9.10½.

September wheat futures settled 1¾¢ higher at $5.70.

September soy meal futures finished $4.50 per short ton higher at $335.50. September soy oil futures closed 0.16¢ lower at 28.59.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.42 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 32 points lower.

 

 

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s soybean complex is clearly the markets leader.

At the close, the September corn futures finished steady at $3.71. December futures settled ½¢ lower at $3.84.

Sep. soybean futures closed 12½¢ higher at $8.95¼. November soybean futures closed 12¼¢ higher at $9.05¾.

September wheat futures closed 6¼¢ lower at $5.68.

September soy meal futures finished $2.60 per short ton higher at $331.00. September soy oil futures finished 0.30¢ higher at 28.75.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.15 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 151 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the weaker crop conditions are helping prices.

“The USDA crop ratings, Monday, for soybeans and spring wheat took a larger-than-expected hit. Soybean ratings are down 3% and spring wheat ratings are down 4%. Odds favor lower corn, soybean, and spring wheat ratings next week,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

On Tuesday, the USDA announced fresh corn and soybean sales.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

  • Optional origin sales of 179,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year. An optional origin contract provides that the origin of the commodity may be the U.S. or one or more other exporting countries.
  • Export sales of 145,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began September 1.

 

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm futures have diverged, with wheat supported by world crops hurt by drought.

Wheat-producing countries such as Australia, Russia, and many in the Europen Union are getting hit with dry weather.

At midsession, the September corn futures are ½¢ higher at $3.70. December futures are ½¢ higher at $3.84.

September soybean futures are 9½¢ lower at $8.82. November soybean futures are 9¾¢ lower at $8.92.

September wheat futures are 12¾¢ higher at $5.69.

August soy meal futures are $3.10 per short ton lower at $327.50. September soy oil futures are 0.01¢ lower at 28.51.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.30 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points higher.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the U.S. corn and soybean crop conditions will take a hit in the USDA Crop Progress report this afternoon.

“Dry conditions continue in the southern and western Corn Belt," Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.  

He adds, “Investors will be watching to see what will come from the extended forecasts for the southern and western Corn Belt. It does not look real hot, but also I do not see any major rain in the forecasts for this week.”

Jim Bower, Bower Trading, Inc., says that Friday’s USDA August Crop Report will be highly watched.

“This report will be highly watched due to a number of reasons,” Bower stated in a daily note to customers Monday. Here is a list of some of the things to watch for in Friday’s report:

  •         Updated world production number for wheat.
  •         Updated world carryout for coarse grains.
  •         Updated U.S. corn and soybean yield with a historically high good/excellent rating.        
  •         Updated soy demand following another month of trade tensions with China.
  •         Old-crop corn demand following brisk exports, feed demand, and ethanol grind.
  •         Also, this will be the first report when the media does not have early access to the numbers, so media and market participants will both have to retrieve the reports from the USDA’s website.
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