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Grain Futures Close Higher

Corn, soybeans, and wheat regain some ground after tariff threat shakes markets.

DES MOINES, Iowa --At the close Friday, the September corn futures finished 6 3/4¢ higher at $3.99 1/2. December corn contracts were 7¢  higher at $4.09 1/2.

September soybean futures ended 3¢ higher at $8.55 3/4.  November soybean futures were up 3 1/4¢ at $8.68 1/2.

September wheat futures were 15¢ higher at $4.90 3/4.
 
September soymeal futures were $0.60 a short ton lower at $294.50. December soy oil futures ended 0.55¢ higher at 28.71¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.72 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials were down 169 points.

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DES MOINES, Iowa --At midsession Friday, grain futures are still in positive territory as the trade focuses on dry weather in the east-central Corn Belt.

The September corn futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $3.97 1/4. December corn contracts are 4 3/4¢  higher at $4.07 1/4.

September soybean futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $8.54 1/2. November soybean futures are up 2 1/4¢ at $8.67 1/2.

September wheat futures are 11 1/2¢ higher at $4.87 1/4.
 
September soymeal futures are $0.80 a short ton lower at $294.30. December soy oil futures are 0.46¢ higher at 28.62¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.55 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 236 points lower.

Futures trading at week’s end continued to recover from President Trump’s announcement Thursday that the U.S. will impose tariffs September 1 on $300 billion in Chinese imports not already affected by the ongoing trade war.

“We think we’re now back looking at the fundamentals we can see ahead of us,” said Don Roose of U.S. Commodities, Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa.

Part of Iowa, Illinois and Indiana are already “abnormally dry” on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map from the National Drought Mitigation Center. And the outlook for the next week is for that region to remain dry.

The affected area comprises about 20% of the Corn Belt, Roose said.

The markets are also anticipating the August 12 USDA crop report. “It’s a huge elephant in the room,” Roose said.

Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management in Platteville, Wisconsin, said that “a Friday bid after a week of lower prices is not out of play, especially as we begin a new month.”

“Corn markets are trading higher after yesterday's successful test of $4.00/bushel,” he said. “Soybeans are maintaining a positive trade as it attempts to heal from yesterday's tariff announcement.”

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- In early trading Friday, grain futures are higher.

September corn futures are 3¾¢ higher at $3.96½; December corn contracts are 3½¢ higher at 4.06.

September soybean futures are 5¾¢ higher at $8.58½; November soybean futures are up 5¾¢ at $8.71.

September wheat futures are up 3¢ at $4.78¾.
 
September soy meal futures are $2.40 a short ton higher at $297.50. December soy oil futures are 0.10¢ higher at 28.26¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.69  higher, the U.S. dollar is slightly lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 100 points lower.

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets continue to languish, with investors awaiting the USDA acreage resurvey results on August 12.

At the close, September corn futures close 7¼¢ lower at $3.92¾; December corn futures finished 7½¢ lower at $4.02½.
 
September soybean futures settled 16¼¢ lower at $8.52¾; November soybean futures closed 16¼¢ lower at $8.65.

September wheat futures settled 11¼¢ lower at $4.75¾.

September soy meal futures closed $5.70 per short ton lower at $299.70. December soy oil futures finished 0.07¢ lower at 28.16¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $4.50 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 265 points lower.

On Thursday, the Trump administration announced more tariffs on products imported from China, beginning September 1, 2019.

On Thursday, the USDA’s weekly Export Sales Report shows unfavorable corn, soybean figures.

Corn sales, ending July 25, totaled 272,700 metric tons, soybean sales totaled 448,600 mt, wheat at 383,100 mt, and soybean meal at 159,000 mt.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says the ag markets may soon get a boost from investors looking for an entry point.

“It would not be surprising to see momentum indicators turn higher by early next week. Buyers are looking for a good spot to jump in the grain market. End users are still nervous about new-crop corn. The strong cash corn market continues to support the idea that we could be facing a short crop this fall,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The selling pressure picked up once we saw lower lows than the prior day. Combine that pressure with the piercing of moving average support, and the bears pushed back. Soybean prices went to the lowest levels since June 11, and corn prices to the lowest level since May 24. The stock market was rattled on Wednesday when comments from the Federal Reserve were not quite what the traders were expecting. It will be worth watching how the outside markets perform the rest of the week. Will they will have any influence on the grains?”

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Wednesday’s Grain Market Review

On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets remain under heavy pressure.

At the close, September corn futures ended 11¢ lower at $4.00; December corn futures finished 11¼¢ lower at $4.09½.
 
September soybean futures settled 16¾¢ lower at $8.67; November soybean futures settled 16½¢ lower at $8.80½.

September wheat futures closed 10¾¢ lower at $4.86½.

September soy meal futures finished $2.80 per short ton lower at $304.90. December soy oil futures settled 0.54¢ lower at 28.29¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 35¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 32 points lower.

On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 104,500 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 500 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year and 104,000 metric tons for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.
 
The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says all eyes are on today’s USDA Crop Progress Report.

“The nonthreatening weather forecasts and stalled trade talks were the primary reasons for grains sliding lower on Tuesday. The corn and soybean charts are fighting to hold just below major support. Both corn and soybeans broke below the early July lows on Tuesday. How will the the bears react over the next few days? That will dictate what happens until the August USDA report. Will they continue to push to new lows? Or will we see the bulls step up to the plate?” Kluis said in a daily note.

Kluis added, “Although trade talks between U.S. and China are back in the headlines more frequently than we have seen the last few months, there is still no reason to get excited. Reports suggest the two sides still cannot converge about the same topics they have been battling over since the trade war started.”

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets close lower.

At the close, September corn futures finished 5¾¢ lower at $4.11; December corn futures settled 6¢ lower at $4.21.
 
August soybean futures closed 7¢ lower at $8.78¾; November soybean futures ended 7½¢ lower at $8.96¾.

September wheat futures closed 6¼¢ lower at $4.97½.

September soy meal futures settled $3.60 per short ton lower at $302.70. December soy oil futures closed 0.14¢ lower at 28.83¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.44 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 8 points lower.

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says improved crop condition scores and pleasant weather has both corn and beans under continued pressure again today.

“Corn has continued to hold very key support today at that $4.20 price point. This is something the trade will continue to monitor. Should that not hold, we will begin to see sell stops triggered and likely a further sell off in corn. While this seems premature given the August 12 report on the horizon, it would certainly add to the intrigue of that story line.  

O’Connell adds, “This year is very unique in that there are so many sub plots and story lines. You can basically pick your narrative and run with it. Also likely why this market seems to lack real direction.  Interestingly enough, very quietly in the background the funds have established a long position of nearly 200,000 contracts. This data was as of last week, and certainly there may have been some selling this week given price action. We typically do not see the funds adding length and the market moving lower. Points to some weak longs leaving the market as it does not feel like farmers are willing sellers,” O’Connell says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says all eyes are on today’s USDA Crop Progress Report.

“The last five weeks, Monday has usually been the high for the week. This week, it may turn out to be the low. On Monday, corn futures opened lower and then closed 2¢ higher. Soybeans also reversed and closed up 3¢. Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “The USDA Crop Progress Report Monday showed corn conditions up (by 1%) to 58% good to excellent and soybean ratings unchanged at just 54% good to excellent. These are some of the lowest late-July crop ratings I can find.”

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Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the buyers are checking in, as the CME Group’s farm markets close higher.

At the close, September corn futures finished 2½¢ higher at $4.17; December corn futures ended 2½¢ higher at $4.27.
 
August soybean futures closed 2½¢ higher at $8.85¼; November soybean futures closed 3¼¢ higher at $9.04½.

September wheat futures finished 7½¢ higher at $5.03¾.

December soy meal futures closed $1.80 per short ton higher at $311.50. December soy oil futures closed 0.05¢ lower at 28.97¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 63¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 41 points higher.

Peter J. Meyer, S&P Global Platts, head of grain and oilseed analytics, says the markets are up, due to dryness concerns in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. “After today’s weather system moves through, there appears to be little chance of more precipitation over the next 10 days. Temperatures do not pose much of a threat, but with poor planting conditions resulting in shallow roots, we did see some rolling of corn and cupping in beans late last week. Corn is also benefiting from a small pop in wheat prices. Overall, the markets seem content to bide their time for the next two weeks, until the August WASDE Report,” Meyer says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says all eyes are on today’s USDA Crop Progress Report.

“Over the weekend, rain was limited to the northern Corn Belt. The USDA Crop Progress Report today will show corn and soybean ratings about 1% lower than last week. The central Corn Belt – from Des Moines, Iowa, to Lafayette, Indiana – has turned dry,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, “Is it time for the market pattern to change? For the last five weeks, the high has come in on Monday or Tuesday and the low on Thursday or Friday. As long as that pattern continues, prices will trend lower. If the low comes in early in this week and prices close on the high for the week, then odds are good an important secondary low will be in place.”

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