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Key Marketing Dates to Watch in August

The month of August will likely prove to be as volatile a trade month as the previous two summer months, with plenty of twists and turns as market fundamentals continue to clash with the uncertainty of global trade issues. While trade issues will likely continue to be the center focus, there are plenty of other things to monitor as well. Here are key dates to be aware of as summer starts to wrap up:

Friday, August 10 USDA Supply/Demand Report

On the supply side, this report creates a lot of drama. From my understanding, on this report, the yield corn is calculated by counting ears. However, it uses a historicaverage ear weight, versus a true and potentially current ear weight. For soybeans, pods per plant will be counted, with a historicalaverage pod weight applied. Because of this, it is likely that yield on this report could potentially increase from the previous month. 

On the demand side, trade will be eager to see if the USDA tweaks export demand (due to the trade war drama). Trade will also monitor corn use for ethanol, as well as corn use for feed.

Wednesday, August 15 NOPA Crush

This report provides insight as to domestic demand for soybeans crushed to use as soybean meal or soybean oil, as well as stocks. Trade interest will note if soybean demand remains strong for domestic consumption, what is made into meal or bean oil, and how much product was used.

Monday, August 20 Milk Production

This report is important as the glut of milk supplies continues to pressure milk prices lower. For many months, the milk production showed increase after increase after increase of supplies, which flooded the market, and led to the lower milk prices. This ultimately led many dairy farms to go out of business in 2018. Is that trend continuing? Or is production finally slowing?

Friday, August 24 Cattle on Feed. 

Trade continues to be well aware of the increased number of cattle in this country. Supplies are plentiful, and thanks to strong domestic demand and a strong export market, the price of cattle remains strong. This come even in spite of the hefty supplies. For now, the supply and demand fundamentals continue to balance each other well, which is why prices continue to chop and traded in this sideways pattern. Yet, be aware of what might be lurking ahead. Will demand continue to remain strong with the threat of trade wars? Will domestic consumer demand continue to be strong as well? Will the wall of cattle continue? Fourth Quarter 2018 will likely lead us to the answer, and this report will be our next clue as to Q4 production. 

And of course, the many twists and turns that come from the President, global geo-politics and trade wars continue to take center stage! Be ready for volatility and plenty of price action. 

If you have questions, you can reach Naomi at nblohm@stewart-peterson.com

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