Grain markets rally at close | Friday, October 7, 2022
GRAIN RALLIES AT CLOSE: 2:00 P.M.
The grain markets rallied into the close today despite the hard down in the stock market. The rally in crude oil helped corn prices, while the soybean rallied on end user buying. Wheat has the best fundamentals, but closed just fractionally higher.
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The U.S. stock market is under pressure as interest rates continue to move higher and crude oil is now up $4 per barrel at $92.45 per barrel. The close today in nearby crude above the September high confirms a long-term low in the crude oil market.
Looking ahead to next week, the key will be what USDA projects for yields and ending stocks for corn and soybeans.
December corn trading range is 12¢. Prices closed up 7 ¾¢ at $6.83. November soybeans trading range was 18¢ and prices closed up 9¢ at $13.67.
Wheat futures closed higher today with CBOT wheat up 1¢, KC wheat up 4 and Minneapolis wheat up 9¢ a bushel.
For the week, nearby corn closed up 6¢, November soybeans posted a weekly higher close closing up 2¢, and wheat futures closed 21-39¢ lower.
In the livestock markets on Friday, October hogs closed up 57¢ at $92.95, October cattle was unchanged at $145.32, and November feeders closed down 80¢ at $175.62.
GRAIN MARKETS RISE AT MIDDAY: 11:10 A.M.
The Conab (similar to the USDA, but in Brazil) came out with projections for a record corn and soybean crop this week. The early projections are for a soybean crop of 152.4 million metric tons of 5.6 billion bushels. This would be up 21% — about 460 million bushels — from last year. This seems very optimistic this early in the season when the La Niña is still in effect. They also came out with a bin-buster forecast for corn of 126.9 million metric tons. This would be up 12% from last year.
The corn market ignored this bearish news and is following the crude oil market higher. Soybean futures have traded on both sides and are now up 1-2¢, and wheat is now 2-8¢ higher. The U.S. stock market is under pressure as interest rates continue to move higher, and crude oil is now up $4 per barrel, at $92.45 per barrel.
December corn trading range at 12¢ last trade is up 6¢ at $6.82. November soybeans trading range is 18¢; last trade is up 1¢ at $13.59. Wheat futures are 10-12¢ off the early day highs and are trading up 2-8¢ per bushel.
Livestock futures are mixed this morning. Feeder cattle are up 17¢. October Live cattle have turned higher and are now up 22¢, with October pausing after the last huge two-day rally and are now down 20¢.
WHEAT FUTURES JUMP IN EARLY TRADE: 9:00 A.M.
The grain markets were hit hard on Thursday and are mixed in the early trade today.
December corn is up 2¢ at $6.77. January soybeans are down 5¢ at $13.65 and wheat futures are 8-14¢ higher
The Dalian Commodity Exchange in China is closed for a holiday this week. On the Matif exchange in Europe, wheat futures are 18¢ per bushel higher at $11.98.
U.S. farmers are making rapid harvest progress. I would look for the USDA Crop Progress report on Monday to show corn harvest at 45% complete and soybean harvest at 52% complete. I think we will carve out a harvest low in the next two to four weeks for both corn and soybeans.
The key chart levels to watch today for support are at $6.55 for December Corn and at $13.60 for January soybeans.
The stock market in China is closed. Japan is down 0.7% and European stocks are up 0.4%.
In the early trade in the U.S., the stock market is lower with the Dow down 482 points and the U.S. dollar is higher.
Crude oil prices are up $1.80 and are now trading just over $90 per barrel.
In the early trade in livestock, futures are mixed, with hogs slightly lower. Live cattle and feeder cattle are higher.
About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.
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