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Mixed markets end the day | Monday, October 17, 2022

The U.S. stock market is gaining back most of Fridays loses with the Dow now up 536 points. The grain markets were very choppy today as traders read into every comment from Russia about whether they will allow the Ukraine Grain Export corridor to remain open. The weather has turned colder, but with mostly dry conditions, the combines are rolling. The southern Plains – the really dry areas – are forecast to get rain next week. The weather models in South America also now project 1 to 3 inch rains across most of the dry areas of Argentina.

Today the National Oilseed Processor Association showed that the U.S. crushed 158.1 million bushels of soybeans in the month of September – slightly less than the trade guess of 162.1 million bushels. Soybean oil stocks came in below trade estimates with the report showing 1.459 million pounds of soybean oil. Soybean oil demand remains strong. 

December corn trading range was 11¢ with futures closing 6¢ lower at $6.83 ½, November soybeans trading range is 19¢, last trade is up 1 ½¢ at $13.93. Wheat futures closed 1 to 2¢ higher. This was about 12 to 14¢ off the early day highs.       

The livestock markets closed higher on Monday. December Hogs closed up $2.70 at $84.95, December Cattle closed up $1.42 at $149.20, and November Feeders closed up $1.65 at $176.40.
 

MIDDAY COMMENTS: 11:15 A.M.

The U.S. stock market continues higher with the Dow now up over 500 points. The news in the grain market is all about Russia and Ukraine. Russia bombed a sunflower processing plant in Mykolayiv, Ukraine that processes 17% of the worlds export market of sun oil. Soybean oil is sharply higher on this news.

Also, Russia is making additional demand ahead of the expiration of the UN Grain Export Corridor agreement that has allowed Ukraine to export wheat, corn, and sunflowers. If that agreement is not renewed in November because of the new Russian demands, it will be viewed as bullish for wheat, corn, and soybean oil prices. 

December corn trading range is 9¢ last trade is down 6¢ at $6.84. November soybeans trading range is 19¢, last trade is up 7¢ at $13.91. Wheat futures are 3¢ to 5¢ higher, about 10¢ off the early day highs.       
 
Livestock futures are posting impressive gains this morning.  November Feeder cattle are $1.60 higher. December Live cattle have turned higher and are now up $1.52. December Hogs are up $2.10.  

WHEAT FUTURES JUMP IN EARLY TRADE: 9:45 A.M.

The grain markets were hit hard on Friday when the stock market turned sharply lower. Today, the U.S. stock market is higher and the grain mixed with corn is lower. Soybeans are up 1¢ and wheat futures are 8 to 13¢ higher.

December corn is down 5¢ at $6.85. January soybeans are up 1¢ at $13.93 and wheat futures are 8 to 14¢ higher.

In the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, corn and soybean futures are lower. On the Matif exchange in Europe, wheat futures are 6¢ per bushel lower at $11.98.

U.S. farmers are making rapid harvest progress. I would look for the USDA Crop Progress report out later today to show corn harvest at 55% complete and soybean harvest at over 60% complete. In the areas where soybean harvest is wrapping up, I see rapid basis improvement.  

Around the world in the stock markets, China is down 0.2%, Japan is down 2.6%, and European stocks are down 1.4%. In the early trade in the U.S., the stock market is now higher with the Dow up 489 points, and the U.S. dollar is down 90 points (about 1%). Crude oil prices are up 66¢ per barrel at $86.25. 

In the early trade in livestock, futures are higher.

For a free trial of The Kluis Report, including three times a day market updates and the Saturday newsletter, visit kluiscommodities.com, call 888-345-2855, or email info@kluiscommodityadvisors.com

About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.

Editor’s Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

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