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Soybeans Close Lower

Futures close mixed in light trading

DES MOINES, Iowa --At the post-holiday close Friday,  the September corn futures finished 2¢ higher at $4.38 3/4¢. December corn contracts were 1¢ higher at 4.42 1/4.

August soybean futures ended 13 3/4¢ lower at $8.76.  November soybean futures were down 14 1/4¢ at $8.94 1/2.

September wheat futures were1¢ higher at $5.15.
 
August soymeal futures are $2.30 a short ton lower at $305.80. August soy oil futures were 0.61¢ lower at 27.56¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 12 cents higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials were down 56 points.

“Volume is light...not unlike other days that are sandwiched between a holiday and a weekend,” said Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management Group, just before the close. “The action in beans has less to do with China's dealings with us than the sizable purchase made from South America.  Reality is that the Chinese "deal" will be given little credence until more concrete terms are set.  As mentioned previously, the story has lost traction with traders.  Lighter volume and a broken trend line has also added to downside pressure.”

Jack Scoville, senior analysts with PRICE Futures Group, noted soybeans struggling in the futures market and the field Friday.

It was a tough day for soybeans,” he said. “Some replanting in beans is going on and reports from producers indicate that the beans look OK but are very small.  The size might become a problem later if the beans can't get
big enough to support enough nodes but for now the hotter and drier weather seems to be adding in growth and keeping disease fears low.

“Corn is very far behind in a lot of areas and some are replanting. The crop condition is highly variable, but that seems to be enough to hold the market right now. USDA says that prevent plant can be at least 10 million acres and I think most of that would be corn, so there are still a lot of questions about planted area and crop size in general.

“It’s not what I would call a high-volume day,” he added.

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DES MOINES, Iowa --At midsession Friday, grain futures are mixed in light trading.

The September corn futures are ½¢ higher at $4.37¼. December corn contracts are unchanged at $4.41¼.

August soybean futures are 10¾¢ lower at $8.79. November soybean futures are down 11½¢ at $8.97¼.

September wheat futures are 1½¢ higher at $5.15½.
 
August soymeal futures are $1.60 a short ton lower at $324.30. August soy oil futures are 0.56¢ lower at 29.40¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 4¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 56 points lower.

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DES MOINES, Iowa --In early trading Friday, grain futures are lower.

The September corn futures are 2¾¢ lower at $4.34. December corn contracts are 2¾¢ lower at 4.38½.

August soybean futures are 8¼¢ lower at $8.81½. November soybean futures are down 8½¢ at $9.00¼.

September wheat futures are down 7¾¢ lower at $5.06¼.
 
August soymeal futures are $2.90 a short ton lower at $305.20. August soy oil futures are 0.13¢ lower at 28.04¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.45 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 98 points lower.

The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report, delayed a day by the July Fourth holiday, showed net sales of U.S corn for the previous week at 331,900 metric tons (MT). That was within trade expectations ranging from 200,000 MT to 500,000 MT.

Soybean sales of 1,029,100 MT were at the upper range of trade expectations of 600,000 MT to 1.2 million MT. They included 607,300 MT for China.

Wheat sales of 276,500 MT were at the low end of prereport estimates of 250,000 MT to 500,000 MT.

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- In an early preholiday close Wednesday, the September corn futures finished 17¼¢ higher at $4.36¼¢. December corn contracts were 14½¢ higher at 4.40½.

August soybean futures ended 9½¢ higher at $8.89¼. November soybean futures were up 9¼¢ at $9.08.

September wheat futures were 10¼¢ higher at $5.13½.
 
August soymeal futures are $2.50 per short ton higher at $308.20. August soy oil futures were 0.27¢ higher at 28.08¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 51¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials closed 179 points higher at a record high of 26,966.

The futures market saw “very light holiday trading,” says Sal Gilbertie of Teucrium Trading, LLC. “Today’s price action is probably some short covering coupled with growing doubts within the industry about the accuracy of planted acres numbers, which seems to be providing some incentive for short covering across the entire grain complex.”

Mike North, head of Commodity Risk Management Group, says “Markets are higher as softer trade on Monday/Tuesday is being offset as many traders leave not just for the Fourth but for a four-day weekend. Stronger cash bids for corn are also helping as buyers have turned up basis offerings to attract new bushels. This conflict of stronger cash markets and the softer futures market at the start of week have created some arbitrage in today’s market. Soybeans and wheat are following along with hopes that recent mention of some progress with China may further evolve into some form of agreement, though many traders have become agnostic to such stories.”

Jack Price of PRICE Futures Group heard those same reports. “Bloomberg is publishing rumors that China might make some good will purchases of beans and corn and pork although in smaller amounts than before,” he says. “No idea if this rumor has validity at all, but it seems to be creating the buying.”

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DES MOINES, Iowa -- In early trading Wednesday ahead of the July 4 holiday, September corn futures are 6¢ higher at $4.25; December corn contracts are 5¼¢ higher at 4.31¼.

August soybean futures are 6¾¢ higher at $8.86½; November soybean futures are up 6¼¢ at $9.05.

September wheat futures are up 4¢ higher at $5.07¼.
 
August soy meal futures are $2.70 a short ton higher at $308.40. August soy oil futures are 0.08¢ higher at 27.89¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 70¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 55 points higher.

Grain markets close today at 12:05 p.m. ahead of the holiday, when they will be closed.

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Tuesday’s Markets

 At the close Tuesday, September corn futures finished 3½¢ higher at $4.19; December corn contracts were 3½¢ higher at 4.26.

August soybean futures ended 10¢ lower at $8.79¾; November soybean futures were down 9¾¢ at $8.98¾.

September wheat futures were 8½¢ lower at $5.03¼.
 
August soy meal futures are $1.50 a short ton lower at $305.70. August soy oil futures were 0.32¢ lower at 27.81¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.05 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points higher.

At Commodity Risk Management Group in Platteville, Wisconsin, Matt Tranel and Mike North offered this view of what drove corn and soybean trading today:

“We are hitting support on corn. In the December, new-crop price had support in the $4.23¾ area dating back to May 29, 2018, trading session. That was the high of the market that day as well as on August 8, 2017.  Past resistance now becomes support. Today's low was $4.20½. We're still attempting to close the gap down to $4.20. The planting story is kind of on the back burner now as we have in the ground what we're going to get, but conditions are mediocre. Crop conditions yesterday pegged us at 56% good to excellent which was unchanged from the week prior, which is mediocre at best. Last year, we were at 76% this time of the year, albeit these years can't be compared at all.     

“Soybeans are falling for multiple reasons. The shrinking hog herd [in China] definitely doesn't help demand for soybeans but the outlook surrounding soybeans is still less than ideal. The latest WASDE Report had soybean acreage pegged at 84.6 million acres. The acreage report was pegged at 80 million acres. If you subtract the 4.6 million acres and multiply it by the 49.5 yield that the USDA is currently projecting it equals 227,700,000 bushels. All other things equal on the balance sheet and our carryover still stands at 817 million. It's likely that yield decreases over time, but the stocks are massive regardless of the reduction in acres.  More will need to be done for soybeans to look attractive but they will be subject to pops in the market. Corn is still the driver of the market.”

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At midsession Tuesday, grain futures are mixed, with corn drawing support from crop conditions and soybeans hurt by exports.    

At midday, September corn futures are 4¼¢ higher at $4.19¾; December corn contracts are trading 4¼¢ higher at $4.26¾.

August soybean futures are 6½¢ lower at $8.83¼; November soybean futures are down 6½¢ at $9.02.

September wheat futures are 8¼¢ lower at $5.03½.
 
August soy meal futures are $1.20 a short ton lower at $306. August soy oil futures are 0.30¢ lower at 27.83¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.05 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points lower.

“Grains are mixed today in oversold territory, still in the hangover after Friday’s USDA crop report with larger planting intentions,” says Jason Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa. “There’s strong support on corn today as crop ratings far below last year and unchanged from last week. Many uncertainties still circle the actual planted acres and yield as the crop progresses. Soybeans continue to lose momentum as exports continue to be disappointing and the large carryover is still considered burdensome.” 

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In early trading Tuesday, grain futures are lower.

September corn futures are 1¾¢ lower at $4.13¾; December corn contracts are 1¾¢ lower at 4.20¾.

August soybean futures are 5¾¢ lower at $8.84; November soybean futures are down 6¢ at $9.02½.

September wheat futures are down 6¼¢ lower at $5.05½.
 
August soy meal futures are $2.20 a short ton lower at $305. August soy oil futures are 0.03¢ lower at 28.10¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 24¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 44 points lower.

Kluis Commodity Advisors expect a narrow trading range of 3¢ on corn and 5¢ on soybeans. They note that 89% corn emergence in Illinois suggests 1 million acres will emerge in July. What kind of yield potential will it have?

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Monday’s Markets

At the close Monday, July corn futures finished 8¼¢ lower at $4.12; December corn contracts were 9¢ lower at 4.22½.

July soybean futures ended 14¼¢ lower at $8.85½; November soybean futures were down 14½¢ at $9.08½.

September wheat futures were 15½¢ lower at $5.11¾.
 
July soy meal futures were $8.30 a short ton lower at $304.80. July soy oil futures were 0.26¢ lower at 27.98¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 75¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is slightly higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 38 points higher.

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At midsession Monday, grain futures extended losses, with early gains in soybean futures disappearing as well. Gains in the stock market from optimism about better U.S.-China trade relations did not spill over into commodity futures.     

At midday, July corn futures are 8¼¢ lower at $4.12; December corn contracts are trading 8¼¢ lower at 4.23¼.

July soybean futures are 12½¢ lower at $8.87¼; November soybean futures are down 13¢ lower at $9.10

September wheat futures are 15¼¢ lower at $5.12.
 
July soy meal futures are $7.30 a short ton lower at $305.80. July soy oil futures are 0.14¢ lower at 28.10¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 53¢ higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 85 points higher.

Even though the stock market opened more than 250 points higher after the U.S. and China agreed to resume trade talks over the weekend, commodity traders were skeptical of immediate benefits to agriculture.

The good news, according to Iowa State University economist Chad Hart, is that now that talks are back on, the potential exists for tariffs to be removed relatively quickly.

“Tariffs can be put on with the speed of a tweet. They can be taken off with the speed of a tweet,” Hart says.

“We’re not going to have any kind of full-fledged trade agreement any time soon,” he says. “Those take years – if not decades – to reach.”

But resumption of talks means that eliminating or reducing existing tariffs is at least possible, he says.

“It’s in meetings like this that tariffs could be removed,” he says.

The odds of tariff relief remain slim, however, and Hart isn’t surprised to see little positive response in the commodities markets.

“The market’s already been through the see-saw of that potential several times over the past year,” he says.

That’s exactly the view of Mike North, president of Commodity Risk Management Group in Platteville, Wisconsin.

“Talks with China, while supportive at face value, bring little added benefit to soybeans because the story has worn itself out among traders,” he says. “Concrete evidence of a deal will be the only thing that can buy interest among traders. Tweets or heresay are just white noise to a market that is having to sort out a very unexpected [USDA] acreage report.  Lower prices today are likely a function of capitulation as traders with a long bias need to consider the wherewithal of their checkbook to keep up with USDA reporting.”

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The stock market opened sharply higher Monday following the weekend news that U.S.-China trade talks are back on. Commodity traders remained skeptical.

“Traders have been hardened to trade talk rhetoric; they want to see actual Chinese purchases occur, which is probably the cause of today’s muted reaction to the news that trade talks have restarted,” says Sal Gilbertie, founder of Teucrium Trading. “Most traders and farmers seem to think China will buy soybeans over time as trade negotiations persist; but the fact remains that China’s need for soybeans is currently reduced due to shrinking swine herds because of African swine fever, which has significantly reduced China’s soy demand for the near future.”

Weather is likely to be a bigger factor.

“We are talking about the trade talks, but there are doubts as to what the Chinese actually want to buy,” says Jack Scoville, senior analyst at PRICE Futures Group. “We know pork and we know not so much in the beans since they are losing the hog herd rapidly these days. Hot and sunny and humid here in Chicago and in many parts of the Midwest, so that seems to be the main driver today.”

In early trading Monday, most grain futures are lower, with the exception of soybeans.

July corn futures are 6½¢ lower at $4.13¾; December corn contracts are 6¢ lower at 4.25½.

July soybean futures are 5¼¢ higher at $9.05; November soybean futures are up 6¢ at $9.26

September wheat futures are down 7¾¢ higher at $5.19½.
 
July soy meal futures are 10¢ a short ton lower at $313. July soy oil futures are 0.26¢ higher at 28.50¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.40 higher, the U.S. dollar is slightly higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 266 points higher.

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