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TABLE-China expects higher 2019/20 soybean, corn imports on rise in U.S. cargoes

(Adds detail, background and table) BEIJING, July 10 (Reuters) - China said on Friday that it predicted higher corn and soybean imports for 2019/20, as the country was expected to step up purchases from the United States to fulfill their Phase 1 trade deal. Corn imports for the crop year that ends in September are now seen at 6 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from last month's forecast, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report. "Implementation of the Sino-U.S. Phase 1 trade deal has accelerated, and China's corn imports from the U.S. are expected to increase," the ministry said in the report. The agriculture ministry also raised its forecast for China's 2019/20 soybean imports to 94 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from the previous month, due to strong crushing demand and an increase in imports from the United States under their initial trade deal, according to the monthly Chinese Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE). Beijing pledged to make an additional $32 billion in purchases of U.S. agriculture products over two years under the initial trade deal which the two sides signed in January. That included $12.5 billion above the corresponding 2017 baseline of $24 billion in 2020 and $19.5 billion above the baseline in 2021. Despite trade hiccups over bilateral tensions in other arenas, China has been buying U.S. farm goods such as soybeans and corn this year, including in recent weeks. The ministry's forecasts for production, consumption and importation of corn and soybean for the 2020/21 crop year remain the same as last month. Key numbers from the CASDE are below: 2018/2 2019/2020 2020/2021 2020/202 Percentage 019 July June 1 July change Forecast( Forecast( Forecast 2019.7) 2020.6) (2020.7) Corn - crop year Oct-Sept Planted 42.13 41.28 41.69 41.69 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Output (mln 257.17 260.77 266.51 266.51 0.00% tonnes) Imports (mln 4.48 6.00 5.00 5.00 0.00% tonnes) Consumption 274.78 278.30 285.47 285.47 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00% tonnes) Balance (mln -13.15 -11.55 -13.98 -13.98 0.00% tonnes) Soybean - crop year Oct-Sept Planted 8.40 9.35 9.60 9.60 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Output (mln 16.00 18.10 18.82 18.82 0.00% tonnes) Imports (mln 82.61 94.00 93.60 93.60 0.00% tonnes) Consumption 102.93 107.10 111.12 111.12 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.00% tonnes) Balance (mln -4.44 4.85 1.15 1.15 0.00% tonnes) Cotton - crop year Sept-Aug Beginning 7.43 7.21 7.73 7.73 0.00% stocks (mln tonnes) Planted 3.37 3.30 3.21 3.21 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Output (mln 6.04 5.80 5.68 5.68 0.00% tonnes) Imports (mln 2.03 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.00% tonnes) Consumption 8.24 7.23 7.80 7.80 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00% tonnes) Ending 7.21 7.73 7.57 7.57 0.00% Stocks (mln tonnes) Sugar - crop year Oct-Sept Planted 1.44 1.42 1.45 1.45 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Cane 1.21 1.19 1.19 1.19 0.00% Beet 0.24 0.23 0.26 0.26 0.00% Output (mln 10.76 10.42 10.50 10.50 0.00% tonnes) Cane sugar 9.44 9.02 8.96 8.96 0.00% Beet sugar 1.32 1.39 1.54 1.54 0.00% Imports (mln 3.24 3.04 3.50 3.50 0.00% tonnes) Consumption 15.20 14.80 15.20 15.20 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.00% tonnes) Balance (mln -1.40 -1.52 -1.38 -1.38 0.00% tonnes) Edible oils - crop year Oct-Sept Output (mln 25.49 27.39 27.70 27.70 0.00% tonnes) Soybean oil 14.31 16.28 16.34 16.34 0.00% Rapeseed 5.69 5.54 5.66 5.66 0.00% Peanut oil 3.18 3.22 3.31 3.31 0.00% Imports (mln 8.55 8.35 7.70 7.70 0.00% tonnes) Palm oil 4.95 4.50 4.20 4.20 0.00% Rapeseed 1.51 1.50 1.40 1.40 0.00% Soybean oil 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.70 0.00% Consumption 33.38 32.56 33.82 33.82 0.00% (mln tonnes) Exports (mln 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.00% tonnes) Balance (mln 0.40 2.93 1.32 1.32 0.00% tonnes) CASDE includes beginning and ending stocks for cotton, which Reuters assumes to include the cotton held by state reserves. Therefore, ending stocks cited in this table are the beginning stocks plus the latest year’s crop and imports, minus consumption and exports. For all other products, CASDE only includes the balance at the end of the crop year. This appears to be the result of the crop output plus imports minus consumption and exports. (Reporting by Hallie Gu, Beijing Newsroom, and Dominique Patton; editing by David Evans and Jason Neely)

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