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327323

A marketing year to remember

Now it’s our turn.

Now it’s our turn. All eyes will be on weather here in the States as we are off to a slow, cool start to planting season, while dryness persists in the Plains.

With the slow start to planting, some wonder just what acres will go to what crop. Last month, USDA in its planting intentions report estimated corn acres would be down to 89.5 million and bean acres up to nearly 91 million. In the Plains they’ve experienced late snows, rain, cold, and dryness. It’ll be interesting to see if all the intended acres get planted to what producers had expected.

In addition, China is on COVID lockdown creating uncertainty about demand.

The war in Ukraine remains as Russia continues to export some wheat. Russia also promises once the country takes complete control, that they’ll step up exports of other grains. Some doubt exists about the time frame in which that could happen given all the destruction that has taken place. There also remains uncertainty about what Ukraine will be able to plant for this upcoming crop, keeping support under grains should that demand get switched to us.

Look for volatility to continue. New expanded price limits went into effect May 1, allowing for greater swings in the daily price action.

Nearby corn market has upside price objections over $8, while new crop looks to follow and may at some point become the leader. Soybeans have previous late winter highs in the mid-$17 range as new crop targets $16.

Also providing support is weather in Brazil for its second corn crop. Indonesia placed a ban on crude palm oil exports which has rallied soybean oil futures dramatically and provided support to soybean futures.

There are many factors and uncertainties yet to come as the world strives to replenish grain supplies. We will likely see unprecedented prices and volatility level. It’ll be a marketing year to remember. It’s also a year to market some crop a year or two ahead. December 23 corn is trading near $676 while November 23 beans are over $14.

Markets are not far off from the top of their ranges. If it’s been a while since your last sale, you may want to add to your sales here. Improve your overall average. Remember, it’s not about selling everything at the tippy top. Should weather improve and the crops gets planted, traders could take profits which may set markets back until summer weather takes hold.

As always, stick to your plan and don’t get distracted by the crazy volatility. Recognize where you’er profitable and make your sales accordingly.

If you have questions, you can reach Cathy at cekstrand@s-pelmwood.com or visit TotalFarmMarketing.com for more information.

Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.

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