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Harvest Progress Continues to Lag

The blizzard that rocked parts of North and South Dakota will definitely have a negative impact on production. The problem is how long it may take before we know how much was lost. It seems like funds have a "show me the damage" mind-set instead of a "we surely lost production" mind-set. They need confirmation of how much was lost before they will make big changes to their positions. One could argue that the killing frost impacted a larger area than initially expected. Yet, prices are lower now than they were on Friday. Did the market already have this figured into prices? Or, are we trading two different headlines?

Here's this week's Successful Marketing Newsletter.

The trade war discussions appeared to have made a big leap forward last Friday afternoon. The announcement of a “phase one” deal that meant huge business for U.S. agriculture was announced after the market closed on Friday. However, there was speculation that this announcement would be made on Friday and would include great news for the U.S. ag industry. We could say that there was some optimistic buying done on Friday. Fast forward to today (Wednesday) and we’ve been told that China has not fully agreed to all the details in the so-called phase one. Hence, the pullback in prices.

Harvest progress is moving along slowly. This is expected given how the growing season has been. Many of the major producing states are well behind the five-year pace. Will all of the 2019 problems impact production more than current USDA estimates?

Here's this week's Successful Marketing Newsletter.

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