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USDA Report Day Is On Deck

The funds are positioned on the short side.

The September USDA Supply and Demand and WASDE report will be released tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. Central time.

This report is not likely to have any major changes compared to last month’s report.

Here is this week’s Successful Marketing Newsletter.

We are unlikely to see any change in acres. There is a chance we see yield adjusted. It will be interesting to see how the USDA takes the weekly Crop Progress report data, over the last month, and translates that to yield update.

In a typical year, the NASS surveyors use ear weights to estimate yield. This year we have such an immature crop, it will be very difficult to use this method. I will be disappointed if they default to average weights and use a corresponding yield.

Here is this week’s Successful Marketing Newsletter.

The funds built a reasonable short position across the grain sector since the August USDA report. All combined, they hold over 279,000 short positions. This is not a record by any means. However, it is worth watching as there are still meaningful threats to the U.S. crop that could cause the funds to run for the exit door.

Keep a close eye on Minneapolis Spring Wheat.

Here is this week’s Successful Marketing Newsletter.

The funds are holding a record short position of more than 21,000 contracts. That market is thinly traded, meaning we could see an aggressive rally kick into gear, if the shorts decide to get flat in a small amount of time.

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