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The Soybean Market Adds to Trump’s Tweet Gains Friday

Fresh demand announced Friday.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Friday, the CME Group’s soybean market ended stronger, adding to the 30¢-per-bushel bump from President Trump's tweet yesterday.

At the close, the December corn futures finished 4 1/2¢ higher at $3.71 1/4. March futures finished 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.83.

January soybean futures closed 5 3/4¢ higher at $8.87 3/4. March soybean futures finished 5 3/4¢ higher at $9.00.

December wheat futures ended 3/4¢ higher at $5.08 3/4.  

December soymeal futures closed 2.40¢ per short ton lower at $311.00. December soy oil futures ended 0.12 lower at 28.20¢ per pound.  

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.63 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 180 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that the market is digesting conflicting reports on U.S., China trade progress.

“First, Bloomberg News reported that (President) Trump has asked his cabinet to get documents together for a possible trade deal. Then some senior administration official denied it on CNBC. So, too much fun,” Scoville says.

He added, “We are higher anyway. I think speculators are buying out shorts just in case. We could see some selling pressure near the end of the day, as it is still harvesttime.”

FC Stone and Informa out today with big crop estimates, Scoville says.  

“We’re still hearing about crop losses in some areas, so I think we will see less in the estimates for corn and soybeans next week.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the action in the soybean complex yesterday shows how sensitive the market is right now.

“Any announcement on a trade deal with China will be met with more buying. The downtrend in the soybeans has been clearly broken. Now we need to keep feeding the market with bullish information to keep it going. With the funds being caught short, we could see them go to the long side of things in corn and soybeans,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Meanwhile, USDA announced fresh sales of corn Friday. Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 200,900 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began September 1.

Soybeans Reach 16-Month Weekly High

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Thursday’s Grain Market Review

On Thursday, the CME Group’s farm markets move higher on strong demand news.

At the close, the December corn futures finished 3 1/2¢ higher at $3.66 3/4. March futures ended 3¢ higher at $3.78 3/4.

January soybean futures closed 30 1/2¢ higher at $8.82. March soybean futures closed 29 1/4¢ higher at $8.94 1/4.

December wheat futures settled 7 1/2¢ higher at $5.08.  

December soymeal futures closed 7.00¢ per short ton higher at $313.40. December soy oil futures closed 0.30 higher at 28.32¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.73 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 207 points higher.

Investors are swarming the soybean pit following President Trumps tweet Thursday stating that he just got off the phone with Chinas President Xi. Trump was quoted as tweeting that he had a long and very good” conversation with Chinas President Xi. There was a heavy emphasis on trade.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the U.S. soybean exports have slowed to the point that the annual projections cannot be met.

“The USDA will have to decrease the annual export sales projection on soybeans due to the sluggish start,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 14¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points higher.

USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday. Here are the sales:

  • Corn: 399,400 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000 and 900,000 mt
  • Soybeans: 455,800 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000 and 750,000 mt
  • Soybean meal: 321,700 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000 and 300,000 mt
  • Wheat: 582,500 mt vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000 and 500,000 mt.

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Wednesday’s Market Review

OnWednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets end mixed.

At the close, December corn futures finished 1½¢ lower at $3.63¼; March futures ended 1½¢ lower at $3.75¾.

January soybean futures closed 4¾¢ higher at $8.51¾; March soybean futures closed 4½¢ higher at $8.65.

December wheat futures ended ¾¢ higher at $5.  

December soy meal futures finished 1.30¢ per short ton higher at $306.40. December soy oil futures closed 0.02¢ higher at 28.02¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 98¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 432 points higher.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says the market is reacting to harvest news.

“Spreads are widening out between corn and soybeans today, as harvest continues to pressure the corn market with larger yields being reported,” Roose says.

According to Energy Information Agency's data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association, ethanol production averaged 1.059 million barrels per day (b/d)—or 44.48 million gallons daily. The 35,000 b/d boost (3.4%) in output yielded the largest weekly volume since August. This bolstered the four-week average for ethanol production to 1.034 million b/d for an annualized rate of 15.85 billion gallons, the RFA stated in a press release.

Despite the increase in production, stocks of ethanol shrank to a 5-week low of 22.7 million barrels. That is a 5.0% decrease from the prior week.

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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review

On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets start weaker.

At the close, December corn futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.64; March futures finished 2¢ lower at $3.77.

November soybean futures closed 5½¢ lower at $8.33½; January soybean futures closed 5¼¢ lower at $8.47.

December wheat futures ended 7½¢ lower at $4.99¾.  

December soymeal futures closed 3.10¢ per short ton lower at $305.10. December soy oil futures ended $0.11 higher at 28.00¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 75¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 320 points higher.

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Monday’s Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets end lower.

At the close, December corn futures finished 1¢ lower at $3.66; March futures finished ¾¢ lower at $3.79¼.

November soybean futures finished 6¢ lower at $8.39; January soybean futures closed 5½¢ lower at $8.52¼.

December wheat futures closed 2¢ higher at $5.07¼.
 
December soy meal futures closed 90¢ per short ton higher at $308.20. December soy oil futures finished 0.27¢ lower at 27.89¢ per pound.
 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 73¢ lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 55 points lower.

On Monday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says harvest progress and Brazil’s soybean planting progress will drive this week’s markets.

“The USDA Crop Progress Report today will show corn harvest about 60% complete, and soybeans will be at about 68% complete. More trade attention will now be focused on South American weather and crop development,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

He added, “The conservative candidate in Brazil won the presidential election yesterday. That is viewed as being positive for the Brazilian currency (the real) and supportive for U.S. soybean prices.”

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