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New year, same weather for Brazil

Dry weather to persist in southern Brazil to start 2022.

As December comes to a close, there is a clear winner and loser when it comes to the weather.

With both the full-season and soybean crops in full swing, sufficient rainfall was necessary this past month. Some areas, like the largest soybean producing state, Mato Grosso, hit the jackpot while others, like Rio Grande do Sul, came up short.

Data from WeatherTrends360 shows that 2021 recorded the fifth wettest December in more than 30 years for the state of Mato Grosso, yet the seventh driest December in Rio Grande do Sul. While planting of soybeans has been long completed farther north, southern Brazil typically plants the crop later in the year. Unfortunately, that means that many were planting their crop in dry soils or waiting for moisture that simply never arrived.

Planting progress in Rio Grande do Sul is nearing completion, but the prolonged dryness in the state has led to planting delays and poor germination.

Could 2022 bring some relief? It doesn’t seem likely. 

Brazil weather map

Looking to the first full week of the new year, forecasts from WeatherTrends360 are calling for above-normal rainfall to stick around across much of central and northeastern Brazil, including key growing states like Mato Grosso and Goiás. Increased rainfall is also likely to expand slightly to the south, falling in Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and in some portions of Paraná and Santa Catarina.

Unfortunately, these wetter trends look to stay out of Rio Grande do Sul where the moisture is sorely needed.

Weekly average temperatures are expected to trend slightly above normal across southern Brazil for the week while central and northeastern portions of the country trend on the cooler side. While central Paraguay could see some rainfall to start the new year, Uruguay and much of Argentina look to follow the trends of Rio Grande do Sul – warmer and drier than normal.

Long-range guidance from WeatherTrends360 shows that overall monthly trends for January will be drier than normal across southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and much of Argentina. 


Be proactive to weather, not reactive. The Weathertrends360 FarmCast offers a long-range forecast up to 365 days in advance. Our statistical, 24 climate cycle, based forecasting model is 85% accurate a year out – better than most companies’ week 2 forecast.  Learn more about how a $369 annual fee for FarmCast may be the best investment you make all year.

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