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3 Big Things Today, August 9
1. Soybeans Higher Overnight While Grains Little Changed
Soybeans were higher overnight on mostly dry weather in the eastern Midwest including most of Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa.
No precipitation is seen in the area, and only slight chances are in the forecast for parts of eastern Nebraska, according to weather forecasts.
Investors also may be squaring positions ahead of Monday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters said they expect soybean area of around 81 million acres and yield of 47.6 bushels an acre. Production is seen around 3.8 billion bushels. In July, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it expected planted acreage at 80 million, yield of 48.5 bushels an acre, and total output of 3.845 billion bushels.
Corn acres are pegged at around 88 million with yield of 164.9 bushels an acre, resulting in production of 13.193 billion bushels, the survey showed.
The USDA last month forecast corn planted area of 91.7 million acres, yield of 166 bushels an acre, and output of 13.875 billion bushels.
Soybean inventories in the marketing year that ends on Aug. 31, 2020, are expected to come in around 821 million bushels, while corn stockpiles are forecast at about 1.62 billion bushels, Reuters reported.
Soybean futures for November delivery rose 5¢ to $8.88 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal added 70¢ to $302.70 a short ton while soybean oil gained 0.47¢ to 29.85¢ a pound.
Corn futures for December delivery added ¾¢ to $4.19 a bushel overnight.
Wheat for September delivery rose 1½¢ to $5 a bushel, while Kansas City futures fell 1¢ to $4.17½ a bushel.
2. Corn, Soybean Export Sales For 2018-2019 Plunge Weekly, Wheat Sales Improve
Export sales of corn and soybeans plunged week-to-week while wheat sales increased, according to the USDA.
Corn sales to overseas buyers for delivery in the 2018-2019 marketing year that ends on Aug. 31 totaled 42,600 metric tons, down 70% from the previous week and 82% from the prior four-week average, the agency said in a report.
Saudi Arabia was the big buyer at 59,300 metric tons, followed by Mexico at 42,900 tons, El Salvador at 30,400 tons, and Japan at 30,300 tons. Colombia was in for 25,800 tons.
For the 2019-2020 year that starts on Sept. 1, sales were reported at 197,000 metric tons. Mexico bought 92,300 tons, Honduras was in for 37,500 tons, Panama bought 35,600 tons, and Canada took 11,400 tons, the USDA said.
Soybean sales for the current marketing year totaled 101,700 metric tons, down 29% week-to-week but up 25% from the four-week average.
China was the big buyer at 126,200 metric tons, making the buy before allegedly halting purchases of U.S. farm goods. The Netherlands bought 112,900 metric tons, South Korea was in for 49,000 tons, Spain took 40,000 tons, and France purchased 24,200 tons.
For the next marketing year, sales were reported at 318,300 metric tons as unknown buyers took 290,500 tons, Colombia bought 8,000 tons, Panama purchased 6,700 tons, and Malaysia was in for 6,300 tons, the government said.
It’s generally not unusual for corn and soybean sales to fall this close to the end of the current marketing year as buyers are looking ahead.
Wheat sales, meanwhile, were up 27% week-to-week at 487,700 metric tons, which gained 17% from the prior four-week average.
The Philippines bought 76,600 tons, Mexico was in for 71,400 tons, Japan bought 68,500 tons, and Taiwan took 61,500 tons. The total would’ve been higher but Brazil canceled shipments totaling 30,000 tons, Colombia canceled cargoes of 23,300 tons, and Indonesia nixed a purchase of 10,000 tons, the USDA said in its report.
3. Severe Weather Continues in Parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas
Severe weather continues to hit parts of eastern Kansas, western Missouri, northeastern Oklahoma, and northwestern Arkansas as flood warnings and flash flood watches persist, according to the National Weather Service.
Another 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected in parts of the region this morning with local amounts as high as 5 inches possible, the NWS said in a report this morning. The precipitation raises the potential for flash flooding.
“Residual flooding will remain possible this morning over far southwestern Missouri and southeastern Kansas,” the agency said in its report. “Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight.”
A heat wave continues to grip much of southern Oklahoma, most of Texas, all of Louisiana, and parts of several Gulf Coast states.
In southern Oklahoma, heat indexes are forecast to hit 108°F. as temperatures reach 101°F. and dewpoints move into the lower 70s, the NWS said.