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3 Big Things Today, January 10, 2020

Soybeans, Grains Little Changed Overnight; USDA Reports Expected to Be Bullish.

1. Soybeans, Grains Little Changed on Trade, Ahead of Reports

Soybeans and grains were little changed as investors weigh optimism about a trade deal with China against pessimism over geopolitical issues with Iran, all while awaiting today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and grain stocks reports due out today.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who led the Asian country’s trade negotiations with the U.S., will be in Washington Monday through Wednesday and is scheduled to sign the Phase One trade deal with China on January 15, China’s Ministry of Commerce said Thursday.

Gao Feng, a spokesman for the ministry, said in a weekly press briefing that a delegation led by Liu will be in Washington for a signing ceremony.

Traders also will have eyes on the WASDE and grain stocks reports that are due out today. Some forecasts are for bullish numbers, which is underpinning prices in the overnight session.

Soybean futures for March delivery fell ¼¢ to $9.43¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures gained 30¢ to $301.10 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.08¢ to 34.72¢ a pound.

Corn futures for March delivery rose ¾¢ to $3.84 a bushel.

Wheat for March delivery gained 1¢ to $5.63¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures added 1¢ to $4.91¼ a bushel.

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2. WASDE Production Estimates Expected to Be Down Monthly, Grain Stocks Also Seen Lower

The WASDE and grain stocks reports are due out at 11 a.m. in Washington today, and the prereport expectations are for bullish numbers.

Analysts have forecast 2019 corn production at 13.513 billion bushels, down from the prior government estimate for 13.661 billion bushels.

Yield is pegged at 166 bushels an acre vs. 167 bushels last month.

The USDA likely will estimate soybean output at 3.51 billion bushels in today’s report, down from the December forecast for 3.55 billion bushels, analysts said.

Yield is forecast at 46.6 bushels an acre, down from last month’s estimate for 46.9 bushels.

The grain stocks report is expected to show corn inventories at 1.77 billion bushels vs. the December estimate for 1.91 billion bushels, according to analysts.

Soybean stockpiles likely will be pegged at 431 million bushels, down from the previous month’s forecast for 475 million bushels.

Wheat inventories probably will be seen by the USDA at 970 million from December’s forecast for 974 million bushels, the analysts said.

The government also will release its weekly Export Sales Report today, a day late due to inclement weather earlier this week in Washington. Analysts expect corn sales from 350,000 to 725,000 metric tons, soybeans from 400,000 to 850,000 tons, and wheat sales from 200,000 to 550,000 tons, according to researcher Allendale.

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3. Winter Storm Warnings in Effect From Kansas to Michigan, NWS Maps Show

Excessive rain watches have turned into winter storm warnings from central Kansas northeast into Michigan, according to the National Weather Service.

In eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, and eastern Iowa, a mix of snow and ice is expected today.

In northern Missouri, up to 6 inches of snow are forecast to fall along with two tenths of an inch of ice, the NWS said in a report early this morning. Wind gusts are expected to top 40 mph in the area.

“Temperatures will drop rapidly after sunset Friday, which could cause a flash freeze of any water on roads and elevated surfaces in combination with the wintry mix already falling,” the agency said in its report.

The eastern half of Michigan also is under a winter storm warning.

Snow and sleet accumulations are pegged at about 3 inches along with a quarter inch to three-quarter inch of ice. Wind gusts of up to 45 mph also are expected overnight and into Sunday, the NWS said.

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