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3 Big Things Today, July 11

Grains, Beans Slightly Lower Overnight; Ethanol Production Falls to Lowest in Five Weeks.

1. Grains, Beans Slightly Lower Ahead of WASDE

Grains and soybeans were slightly lower in overnight trading ahead of today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report.

Corn inventories at the end of the 2019-2020 marketing year that starts on September 1 are pegged at 1.692 billion bushels, up from 1.675 billion a month earlier, researcher Allendale said. Soybean stockpiles likely will be pegged at 812 million bushels, well below last month’s 1.072 billion.

Weather also is a hot topic, as temperatures in parts of the Midwest are in the 90s with heat indexes topping 100˚F.

In parts of Nebraska, fields and towns are flooded after as much as a foot of rain fell in the past few days, pushing rivers and tributaries over their banks.

The corn crop was rated 57% good or excellent as of Sunday, which is up from 56% last week, the USDA said in a report. That’s still well below last year’s 75% that earned top ratings at this point in 2018.

Soybeans were 53% good or excellent at the start of this week, down from 54% seven days earlier, the government said. Last year at this time, 71% had earned top ratings.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 2¢ to $4.37½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat for September delivery lost ½¢ to $5.04¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures declined ½¢ to $4.41 a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery fell ¾¢ to $9.12 a bushel overnight. Soy meal fell 60¢ to $317 a short ton, and soybean oil rose 0.05¢ to 28.61¢ a pound.

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2. Ethanol Production Drops to Five-Week Low, Inventories Rise to Highest Since Mid-May

Ethanol production plunged to the lowest level in five weeks while inventories increased.

Output in the seven days that ended on July 5 averaged 1.047 million barrels a day, down from 1.081 million barrels the previous week and the lowest since May 31, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Production in the Midwest, by far the largest-producing region, dropped to an average of 967,000 barrels a day from 1.003 million the previous week. Last week’s total also was the lowest since May 31, the EIA said in a report.

East Coast output declined by 2,000 barrels to an average of 25,000 barrels a day, and West Coast production dropped by 1,000 barrels to 17,000 a day, on average.

Gulf Coast production, meanwhile, rose to 24,000 barrels a day, on average, from 20,000 the previous week, and Rocky Mountain output increased to 14,000 barrels a day from 13,000 during the prior seven-day period, the agency said.

Stockpiles, meanwhile, increased for a second consecutive week to 23.009 million barrels.

That’s up from 22.844 million the previous week and the highest level since the seven days that ended on May 17, the EIA said.

In other news, the USDA is scheduled to release its weekly Export Sales Report this morning. Analysts are expecting corn sales of 250,000 to 700,000 metric tons, soybean sales from 250,000 to 750,000, and wheat sales from 250,000 to 550,000 tons, according to researcher Allendale.

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3. Flood Warnings Remain in Effect For Parts of Southern Nebraska, Northern Kansas

Flood warnings continue in parts of south-central Nebraska and northern Kansas this morning after almost a foot of rain fell in the region in the past couple of days, according to the National Weather Service.

“Significant flooding” is expected along several rivers in Nebraska including the Platte and Republican, the NWS said in a report early this morning. Media reports show parts of several towns are under water or face flooding in low-lying areas.

Another round of thunderstorms is forecast for Friday evening into Saturday, and wet weather is expected to continue until at least the middle of next week, the agency said.

Temperatures in the Southern Plains and Midwest have moderated slightly with parts of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, where it’s been extremely hot the past few days, falling back into the 80s for highs.

Still, heat indexes are expected to be around 100˚F. to 103˚F. due to high humidity, the NWS said.

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