3 Big Things Today, July 12
1. Grains, Beans Modestly Lower After Quiet WASDE
Grains and soybeans were modestly lower in overnight trading after a somewhat muted report from the USDA.
The government made little changes for corn and soybean production and ending stockpiles in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report on Thursday.
Corn production is pegged at 13.875 billion bushels, topping trade expectations for 13.3 billion bushels and ahead of the prior outlook by the USDA for 13.68 billion. Yield is estimated at 166 bushels an acre, ahead of the 164-bushel consensus but unchanged from the previous estimate.
Soybean production is seen at 3.84 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 3.871 billion but well lower than the previous government forecast for 4.15 billion bushels. Yield is expected at 48.5 bushels an acre, just ahead of analyst expectations for 48.4 bushels an acre but behind the June forecast for 49.5 bushels.
Corn stockpiles at the end of the current marketing year that ends on August 31 are seen at 2.34 billion bushels, ahead of forecasts for 2.21 billion and the previous estimate of 2.19 billion. Old-crop soybean inventories are pegged at 1.05 billion bushels, on part with expectations and just shy of the previous month’s outlook for 1.07 billion.
New-crop corn stocks are pegged at 2.01 billion bushels, well ahead of trade estimates for 1.59 billion and the June estimate of 1.67 billion. Soybean inventories at the end of the 2019-2020 marketing year are seen at 795 million bushels vs. expectations for 816 million and the June forecast for 1.05 billion bushels.
Corn futures for December delivery fell 1¾¢ to $4.46¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Soybean futures for November delivery fell 1¾¢ to $9.15½ a bushel overnight. Soy meal fell 90¢ to $318 a short ton, and soybean oil declined 0.19¢ to 28.46¢ a pound.
Wheat for September delivery lost 4¼¢ to $5.17¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures declined 2¼¢ to $4.59¼ a bushel.
2. Export Sales of Corn Jumped Last Week, Soybean Sales Decline
Export sales of corn jumped in the seven days that ended on July 4 while soybeans plunged, according to the USDA.
Corn sales for overseas delivery were reported at 505,400 metric tons, up noticeably from the prior week and the four-week average, the USDA said in a report.
Japan was the big buyer at 444,800 metric tons, followed by Colombia at 84,800 tons. Mexico bought 33,200 tons, Panama was in for 8,000 tons, and Honduras took 2,000 tons. An unknown buyer canceled a shipment for 64,300 metric tons.
Sales in the 2019-2020 marketing year came in at a negative 108,400 tons as Japan canceled cargoes totaling 120,000 metric tons, the government said.
Soybean sales went the opposite direction, dropping 84% from the previous week to 132,200 metric tons.
China was again the biggest buyer, but only at 127,800 metric tons. Indonesia bought 68,900 tons, the Netherlands was in for 67,900 tons, Germany purchased 63,900 tons, and Japan took 52,800 tons, the USDA said.
For the 2019-2020 marketing year that starts on September 1, net sales were reported at 129,500 metric tons as an unknown customer purchased 74,500 tons, Taiwan took 38,000 tons, Japan was in for 15,000 tons, and Indonesia bought 2,000 tons.
Wheat sales for the marketing year that started on June 1 were reported at 284,400 metric tons. That includes a purchase by the Philippines for 123,700 metric tons and a purchase from Mexico for 65,200 tons.
Thailand took 55,000 tons, Algeria was in for 33,800 tons, and Guatemala bought 29,900 tons. The total would’ve been higher but an unknown customer canceled cargoes worth 76,000 metric tons, the USDA said in its report.
3. Heat Returns to Oklahoma, Flooding Continues in Nebraska, All Eyes on Barry
The heat returns for much of the Southern Plains and Midwest with indexes topping 100˚F. this weekend, according to the National Weather Service.
In eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, temperatures will be in the mid-90s with heat indexes as high as 103˚F. possible for Saturday, the NWS said in a report early this morning.
Farther north, flooding continues in Nebraska after as much as 1 foot of rain fell earlier this week in the center of the state.
A flood warning is in effect for several rivers that have overrun their banks. The Platte River near Grand Island was at 7½ feet late yesterday, though it is expected to fall below flood stage of 6½ feet on Sunday morning.
A flood advisory also is in effect for the Missouri River near Blair and Omaha.
Forecasters are watching Tropical Storm Barry, which is churning in the Gulf of Mexico and headed toward the U.S. coast. Storm surge, hurricane, tropical storm, and flood warnings are all in effect from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, according to weather maps.
The storm has the potential for winds of up to 73 mph and can quickly change track, size, and intensity, the agency said. The storm surge is expected to push all the way into southern Illinois and southern Ohio, forecasters have said.