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3 Big Things Today, May 8

Soybeans Slightly Higher Overnight; Trade Deal Reportedly Undone in One Diplomatic Cable.

1. Soybeans Slightly Higher Overnight on Bargain Hunting

Soybeans were slightly higher in overnight trading as bargain hunters come seeking supplies, though investors are still worried about trade after President Donald Trump said Sunday the U.S. would raise levies on Chinese goods on Friday.

Bean futures plunged on Monday after the president sent a tweet saying the U.S. would raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 25% from 10% but managed to end up a half cent yesterday. The price has dropped low enough that, so far, it’s seen as a value for those seeking to get into the market or hedgers.

Fundamentally, not much has changed in the past 24 hours, though a Reuters report said China changed much of the draft agreement, removing many concessions it had reportedly made.

Still, some investors may not want to get on the wrong side of the trade in the event a deal is hammered out as Chinese officials are in Washington this week to continue negotiations.

Soybeans for May delivery rose 2½¢ to $8.33 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal added 60¢ to $293.90 a short ton, and soy oil fell 0.01¢ to 27.09¢ a pound.

Corn futures for May delivery rose 1¢ to $3.67½ a bushel overnight.

Chicago wheat for May delivery gained ¼¢ to $4.39¾ a bushel, while Kansas City wheat fell ½¢ to $4.03½ a bushel.


2. Trade Deal Reportedly Fell Apart After China Changed Draft Agreement

With a trade agreement between the U.S. and China seemingly imminent, it reportedly took one diplomatic cable to undo months of negotiations.

The 150-page trade agreement was sent to Washington from Beijing with edits that reversed China’s position on several core U.S. demands, Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources familiar with the document.

China reversed its commitment to change laws on theft of intellectual property and trade, forced technology transfer, competition, access to financial services, and currency manipulation, the report said. Agriculture wasn’t mentioned.

President Donald Trump on Sunday sent a tweet saying the U.S. would raise tariffs on more than $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% from their current level of 10%.

The countries – the world's two largest economies – have been working on a trade deal since December when Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping met for a dinner and vowed to find common grounds. The White House originally set a March 1 deadline but extended that amid ongoing talks.

U.S. officials have now said they’ll impose the higher tariffs starting Friday.

Chinese officials have said talks are ongoing and that the changes it made were part of “the process of negotiation,” according to Reuters.

Vice Premier Liu He is still expected in Washington starting today to continue negotiations.


3. Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma All Likely to See Severe Weather Today, NWS Says

More wet weather is on the way for the central U.S. where flooding is already a major issue.

Flash flood warnings and watches and flood warnings and advisories are all in effect for the western half of Kansas, much of central Missouri, and central Oklahoma, according to the National Weather Service.

In western Kansas, homes were being evacuated in the small town of Peabody due to flooding, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

“Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets, and underpasses as well as drainage areas and low-lying spots,” the agency said.

Storms are rolling through much of Texas and Oklahoma this morning, which will bring rain, hail, and strong winds to parts of the region. A severe thunderstorm warning is in effect for much of the affected area, the NWS said.

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