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3 Big Things Today, November 12, 2019

Soybean, Grain Futures Little Changed Overnight; Trump Expected to Talk Trade Tuesday.

1. Soybean, Grain Futures Little Changed in Overnight Trading

Soybeans and grains were little changed in overnight trading, as investors await any news from the trade front.

The U.S. and China are still embroiled in the now almost 18-month trade spat that’s left both sides facing crippling tariffs and reduced exports.

It seemed that an agreement was within reach after the U.S. said at least a partial agreement had been hammered out and China saying tariffs would be canceled. So far, no deal has been signed.

President Donald Trump is expected to talk about trade in a speech today.

Traders and producers alike will be keeping an eye on today’s Crop Progress Report, which is being released a day late due to Veterans Day.

The trade is expecting the corn harvest was 65% finished as of Sunday, up from 52% a week earlier but well behind the prior five-year average of 84%, according to researcher Allendale. Soybean collection is forecast at around 83%, up from 75% a week earlier but behind the average of 92% for this time of year.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose ¼¢ to $9.17¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal added 40¢ to $301 a short ton, while soybean oil fell 0.11¢ to 31.31¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery gained ¼¢ to $3.73½ a bushel.

Wheat for September delivery was unchanged at $5.05¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures rose 2¾¢ to $4.25½ a bushel.

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2. Trump Likely to Talk About U.S.-China Trade in New York Speech Tuesday

President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in New York today, and most pundits expect to hear about the ongoing trade row with China.

Last month, the president said the sides had come to at least a “partial” agreement and market-watchers expected some sort of deal – regardless of its scope – would be signed at the APEC meeting in Chile in November.

That meeting, however, was canceled amid protests by the would-be host country, leaving people wondering when and, seemingly more important to those doing the signing, where a meeting would be held. For now, that’s still up in the air.

Things looked rosy when Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said last week that tariffs would be canceled by each side. But at least thus far, the U.S. side hasn’t confirmed any plans to cancel tariffs.

Trump is expected to address trade, among other things, when he speaks to members of the New York Economic Club today.

Economists and economic analysts have said they believe the president will tout economic strength in the U.S. but also will likely talk about the proposed deal with China.

Isaac Boltansky, the director of policy research at investment firm Compass Point, said in a note to clients that he expects the president will include in his speech comments that are supporting to the so-called phase-one trade deal, according to Bloomberg. 

The firm believes that an agreement will be signed by the end of the year under which China will agree to ship more agricultural products and acquiesce to intellectual property concerns. In exchange, the U.S. will suspend tariffs indefinitely, Boltansky said.

Analysts with investment firm Nomura also said they believe the U.S. will suspend tariffs set to go into effect on December 15.

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3. Cold Spell Moving From Iowa Into Illinois After as Much as 6 Inches of Snow Falls

As much as 6 inches of snow that fell in parts of northern Illinois will give way to near-record low temperatures Tuesday night, according to weather forecasts.

Temperatures are expected to drop near today’s record, which is 8˚F., weather forecasts show.

The winter storm also hit farther east, though snowfall amounts were considerably lower. A winter weather advisory in effect for much of Indiana and southern Ohio, the National Weather Service said.

“While the majority of the accumulating snow is over, residual moisture on roads could flash-freeze overnight with plummeting temperatures,” the NWS said in a report early this morning.

The bitter cold is already hitting parts of Iowa, with temperatures well below zero this morning, the agency said.

Most counties in the eastern part of Iowa and western Illinois likely will see the cold continue until temperatures begin to warm through mid-morning, the NWS said.

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