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3 Big Things Today, October 10, 2019

Soybeans Slightly Higher Overnight; Ethanol Production Remains Below Million-Barrel Mark.

1. Soybean Futures Higher Overnight With WASDE on Deck

Soybeans were slightly higher in overnight trading ahead of today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report in which the government is expected to lower its forecast for production, yield, and stockpiles.

Production of soybeans is pegged by analysts at 3.583 billion bushels on yield of 47.3 bushels an acre, down from the USDA’s September forecast for output of 3.633 billion bushel on yield of 47.9 bushels an acre.

Stockpiles are expected at around 521 million bushels, down from the government’s prior outlook for 640 million bushels.

Corn production is expected by analysts to be around 13.684 billion bushels on yield of 167.5 bushels an acre, down from 13.799 billion and 168.2 bushels, respectively.

Inventories are seen at about 1.784 billion bushels vs. September’s outlook for 2.19 billion bushels.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 2¢ to $9.25¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal rose 50¢ to $310.20 a short ton, while soybean oil added 0.08¢ to 29.79¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery were unchanged at $3.94¼ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for September delivery gained 3¢ to $5.03¼ a bushel, while Kansas City futures rose 2¾¢ to $4.16 a bushel.

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2. Ethanol Production Rises, Below Million-Barrel Mark Third Straight Week, Stockpiles Plunge

Ethanol production in the U.S. rose week to week but is still well below the 1 million-barrel-per-day average, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Output in the seven days that ended on October 4 was reported at an average of 963,000 barrels a day, the EIA said in a report.

That’s up from 958,000 barrels, on average, each day the previous week and the 943,000 barrels averaged in the week that ended on September 20.

The total marks the first time since April 2017 that production averaged less than 1 million barrels a day for three straight weeks, according to government data.

In the Midwest, by far the biggest-production area, output averaged 890,000 barrels a day, up from 887,000 barrels the previous week.

East Coast production came in at 23,000 barrels a day, up from 20,000 the previous week, and West Coast output was reported at 16,000 barrels a day, on average, from 15,000 barrels.

Rocky Mountain production was unchanged at 14,000 barrels a day, while Gulf Coast output fell to an average of 20,000 barrels a day from 22,000 in the prior seven-day period, the EIA said.

Stockpiles, meanwhile, plunged to 21.224 million gallons last week, the lowest level since October 2017, government data show.

In other news, the USDA will release its Weekly Export Sales Report this morning.

Analysts are expecting corn sales from 500,000 to 800,000 metric tons, soybean sales from 1.3 million to 1.8 million tons, and wheat sales from 300,000 to 600,000 tons, researcher Allendale said in a morning report.

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3. Freezing Weather Continues in Parts of Nebraska, Kansas While Blizzard Hits Dakotas

A freeze warning is in effect for much of Nebraska and Kansas, while a winter storm slams the Dakotas, according to the National Weather Service.

In parts of Nebraska, temperatures fell into the upper 20s last night, and more cold weather is expected tonight.

Temperatures are forecast to fall as low as 21˚F. tonight, the NWS said in a report this morning. The freeze warning begins at 7 p.m. and runs through midday tomorrow.

The coldest temperatures likely will be in the center of the state.

In parts of Kansas, temperatures will fall into the low-30s overnight into mid-morning tomorrow, the agency said.

In North Dakota, another 5 to 12 inches of snow are in the forecast with wind gusts of up to 40 mph, the NWS said. Total accumulations are expected to be from 8 to 18 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

The winter storm warning in the Northern Plains is in effect until 7 p.m. Saturday.

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