3 Big Things Today, October 11, 2019

Soybeans, Grains Higher Overnight; Export Sales of Corn Miss, Beans Top Forecasts.

1. Soybeans, Grains Higher Overnight on WASDE, Weather

Soybeans and grains were higher overnight after yesterday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report and as winter weather moves into the Midwest, burying some late-planted crops with snow.

The USDA lowered its soybean production forecast as projected, but unexpectedly increased its corn output forecast.

Soybean production was pegged at 3.55 billion bushels, below the average trade estimate of 3.58 billion bushels and the previous outlook for 3.63 billion. Yield is pegged at 46.9 bushels an acre, the USDA said, below the trade estimate of 47.3 bushels an acre and the September projection of 47.9 bushels an acre.

Corn output was seen by the government at 13.77 billion bushels, up from analyst forecasts for 13.68 billion and the previous month’s estimate of 13.7 billion.

Yield was seen at 168.4 bushels an acre vs. the average trade outlook for 167.5 bushels and the prior forecast for 168.2 bushels an acre.

The numbers are giving bean prices a boost but capping gains in corn this morning.

Still, winter weather that’s moving through much of the western Corn Belt has essentially buried bean and corn plants that didn’t get harvested. Freezing weather from Texas to northern Wisconsin also is keeping prices buoyed.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 10¢ to $9.33½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal rose $3.40 to $311.20 a short ton, while soybean oil added 0.08¢ to 29.79¢ a pound.

Corn futures for December delivery gained 4¢ to $3.84¼ a bushel overnight.

Wheat for September delivery added 2½¢ to $4.95½ a bushel, while Kansas City futures rose 4½¢ to $4.07¾ a bushel.


2. Corn Export Sales Miss Expectations, Bean Sales Easily Top Forecasts

Export sales of corn badly missed expectations, while soybeans crushed forecasts last week.

Corn sales in the seven days that ended on October 3 totaled 284,500 metric tons, down from 562,600 tons a week earlier, the USDA said in a report. The total also missed forecasts for sales of 500,000 to 800,000 metric tons.

Colombia was the biggest buyer at 109,300 metric tons, followed by Japan at 75,600 tons, Mexico at 37,600 tons, unknown buyers at 20,900 tons, and Costa Rica at 12,300 tons.

Soybean sales, however, came in at 2.09 million metric tons, up slightly from the previous week’s lofty 2.08 million tons, the agency said. Analysts had pegged sales from 1.3 million to 1.8 million metric tons, researcher Allendale said.

China was again the biggest buyer at 1.18 million metric tons. An unknown buyer was in for 210,000 tons, Spain bought 207,300 tons, Taiwan took 78,900 tons, and the United Kingdom purchased 59,700 tons.

 The total would’ve been higher but Egypt canceled a purchase of 58,000 tons.

Wheat sales also rose, jumping 59% week to week to 521,900 metric tons. The big buyer was China, which took 130,000 tons.

Taiwan was in for 110,300 tons, South Korea bought 80,000 tons, Mexico took 62,900 tons, and the Philippines purchased 56,700 tons, the USDA said. Indonesia canceled a cargo worth 47,300 tons.

Analysts had expected wheat sales from 300,000 to 600,000 metric tons.


3. Freeze Warnings in Effect From New Mexico to Wisconsin; Blizzard Warning in North Dakota

Freeze warnings are in effect from New Mexico to northern Wisconsin, while a winter storm continues to pound the Dakotas this morning.

Temperatures in central and eastern Iowa are expected to drop into the upper 20s late tonight into Saturday in some areas after falling into the 30s last night, according to the National Weather Service.

In southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, where winter wheat is emerging from the ground, temperatures overnight ranged from 18˚F. to 30˚F., the NWS said in a report early this morning.

“Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops,” the agency said in its report. “A hard killing freeze is expected for much of southwestern Kansas … with temperatures below 28˚F. for several hours at many locations.”

In much of North Dakota, meanwhile, blizzard and winter storm warnings are in effect.

Another 2 to 6 inches of snow are likely in parts of the state, bringing total accumulations up to 11 to 24 inches, the NWS said. Wind gusts today are forecast up to 65 mph.

The winter storm warning is in effect until 10 a.m., then a blizzard warning will be in effect from 10 a.m. until 1 p.m. Saturday, the agency said.

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